But Rising Demand Paired With Fewer Resources
Continue To Tighten Reserve Levels
VALLEY
FORGE, Pa., May 2, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- PJM Interconnection expects to meet summer
electricity demand in 2024, though continuing generator retirements
and increasing demand continue to erode reserve levels for the
operator of the nation's largest electrical grid. Tighter reserves
could result in the use of demand response or additional emergency
procedures under scenarios involving extreme heat combined with
significant generator outages.
"We plan throughout the year to make sure we have enough
resources to serve load at the hottest time of the year," said PJM
President and CEO Manu Asthana. "But
we are concerned that new generation is not coming online fast
enough to replace retiring resources, and that subsequent years may
be more challenging."
The system is experiencing what PJM forecast in its 2023
Resource Retirements, Replacements and Risks (PDF) paper: The loss
of generation resources is outpacing the addition of replacement
resources amid accelerating growth in consumers' demand for
electricity. It is an issue confronting grid operators throughout
North America.
That means PJM has fewer generation resources to draw on this
summer compared with 2023 – approximately 182,500 MW of installed
generating capacity is available in 2024 to meet customer needs,
compared with approximately 186,500 MW of installed capacity last
summer.
PJM also projects higher peak demand for electricity this summer
at approximately 151,000 MW compared with the 2023 summer peak load
of 147,000 MW. PJM's all-time, one-day highest power use was
recorded in the summer of 2006 at 165,563 MW. One megawatt can
power about 800 homes.
Although PJM has performed reliability studies at loads
exceeding 164,000 MW, the increased peak load forecast combined
with reduced generating capacity reduces reserve margins for
extreme weather scenarios. Scenarios that include this higher level
of demand, combined with low solar and wind output and/or high
generator outages, would further reduce reserve margins. In these
unlikely but possible set of circumstances, PJM might have to
implement additional procedures to manage emergencies, including
demand response, calls for conservation, limits on electricity
exports, or even temporary service interruptions.
The National Weather Service predicts above-average temperatures
this summer for the entire PJM footprint, as well as wetter
conditions than normal. However, PJM and our members also need to
be prepared for more extreme weather scenarios.
"With increasingly unpredictable weather patterns, we need to
also prepare for more extreme weather conditions," said
Aftab Khan, Executive Vice President
– Operations, Planning and Security. "We will continue to work with
our utility partners and stakeholders to refine our planning,
analysis and communications of the risks presented by any
challenging weather patterns this summer."
Predicting the demand for electricity helps procure an adequate
supply of power today and in the years ahead. Making these
predictions – called load forecasting – is a job PJM does
routinely, for both short- and long-term periods, to help acquire
an adequate supply of power for reliable service at the most
reasonable cost.
A dedicated team of operators uses sophisticated technology to
balance supply and demand and direct the power grid 24/7 from PJM's
control rooms. They prepare multiple potential scenarios that could
be impacted by weather, emergency conditions or equipment failure.
They adjust resource output with changes in demand and ensure that
no transmission lines or facilities are overloaded. The team also
watches for unusual conditions and reacts to them to protect the
electricity supply.
PJM Interconnection, founded in 1927, ensures the reliability
of the high-voltage electric power system serving 65 million people
in all or parts of Delaware,
Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New
Jersey, North Carolina,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West
Virginia and the District of
Columbia. PJM coordinates and directs the operation of the
region's transmission grid, which includes 88,115 miles of
transmission lines; administers a competitive wholesale electricity
market; and plans regional transmission expansion improvements to
maintain grid reliability and relieve congestion. PJM's regional
grid and market operations produce annual savings of $3.2 billion to $4 billion. For the
latest news about PJM, visit PJM Inside Lines at
insidelines.pjm.com.
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SOURCE PJM Interconnection