By Chris Oliver
Casino stocks in Macau have lagged the recent gains in their Las
Vegas counterparts and now offer better value, especially in view
of their growth prospects, according to an analyst report.
In a recent note titled "Green shoots seen in Macau but not
Vegas," Citigroup Global Markets said it preferred "pure Macau"
gambling stocks -- those without operations outside Macau -- over
U.S. players.
Las Vegas casino stocks as a group have risen 375% from lows
earlier this year, while Macau players have climbed about 90%, Citi
said.
More important, it said, Macau's gaming outlook appears better
than that for Las Vegas, with gambling activity in the former
Portuguese enclave -- now the world's biggest casino hub --
expected to show year-on-year growth in July.
Casino revenue for July totaled 9.57 billion patacas ($1.2
billion), up 3.1% from a year earlier, according to the South China
Morning Post, which cited figures leaked by Portuguese news agency
Lusa.
"Las Vegas is a market with a significantly lower gaming growth
trajectory versus Macau," wrote Citi analysts headed by Anil
Daswani.
Las Vegas appears to have peaked in terms of revenue in 2007,
Citi said, although it stopped short of forecasting a secular
decline for the U.S. gambling center.
The brokerage said the market would likely take a shine to the
pure Macau casino operators in coming months. Shares of these
casinos are trading at lower valuations than their Vegas peers,
have stronger balance sheets and no exposure to the increasingly
competitive market in Las Vegas.
Citi named Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL), Melco
International, , SJM Holdings and Galaxy Entertainment among its
favored Macau casino stocks.
Citi says it's also upbeat on slot-machine operator NagaCorp.
rating the company as a "conviction" buy.
SJM Holdings' Chairman Stanley Ho underwent brain surgery in the
past week to remove a blood clot and is in satisfactory condition
recovering in a Hong Kong hospital, according to a company
statement Tuesday.
Analysts said it would be hard to quantify the impact upon the
fortunes of the Ho family if the 87-year-old patriarch were unable
to resume his duties. SJM has the single biggest market share in
terms of casino revenue in Macau, while the Ho family controls
three of the enclave's six casino concessions.
Shares of SJM Holdings ended 0.3% higher in Wednesday's trade,
reversing part of Tuesday's 4.5% slide, despite concerns over Ho's
health. Melco International stock, meanwhile, slipped 3.6%.
The moves compared with a 1.5% decline in the benchmark Hang
Seng Index. Elsewhere, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 ended 1.2% lower,
Australian shares fell 1% and China's Shanghai Composite slipped
1.2%.
A new pure Macau casino player may join the group if Wynn
Resorts (WYNN) proceeds with plans to sell off its Macau assets in
a Hong Kong initial public offering.
Media reports last month said Wynn could debut the Macau
spin-off in Hong Kong sometime in the October-December quarter,
potentially raising $1 billion to $2 billion.
But Citi said it doesn't recommend investors buy shares in Wynn
Resorts, adding that the Hong Kong IPO is unlikely to happen unless
Wynn decides it can spin off the Macau assets at a premium.