Analyst Bove:Big FDIC Assessment Coming;Bank Shares Too High
August 24 2009 - 11:45AM
Dow Jones News
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. assessments could end up
consuming 25% of banks' 2010 pretax income, analyst Dick Bove said
Sunday, as the agency struggles with another 150 to 200 bank
failures before the current financial crisis is over.
The Rochdale Securities analyst, in saying Thursday's expected
release of FDIC figures will show $2.6 billion in assessments,
painted a dark outlook for federal deposit insurance needs in a
note to clients.
Banks may end up paying $11 billion in normal assessments plus
another $11 billion in special assessments in 2010, he said, funds
that "must come from healthy banks."
The FDIC - which assesses those fees to provide guarantees on
deposits - may be forced to seek the assistance of foreign banks
and private-equity funds to "cleanse the American banking system,"
Bove said.
Bove's prediction that 150 to 200 more banks may fail is
consistent with his long-standing view that failures will be
widespread. He said he is surprised that more banks than the 25
last year and 81 to date this year have not failed in the current
crisis. But the FDIC prediction and the dark outlook for earnings
is a new note for the analyst.
In a separate note Saturday, Bove also took a shot at enthusiasm
for bank stocks, saying many today are "very rich relative to
historical parameters" because investors are rushing to buy the
hardest-hit among them.
The result is that some of the stocks that surged in July and
August now trade at higher multiples of future earnings than the
multiples on current earnings that obtained during the 2002-06
boom, Bove said.
One large bank that appears to have a hefty premium in its
shares now is Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), whose stock rose
66.7% from June 30 to Aug. 21 even though its 2011 earnings are
expected to drop nearly 58% from 2007 levels.
Capital One officials were not immediately available to comment
on that assessment.
Citigroup (C) is another bank trading at a hefty premium, by
Bove's analysis, at 16.8 times its forecast 2011 earnings, compared
to an average 13.3 over 2002-06.
Citigroup officials were not immediately available to discuss
for comment.
Other banks' price-to-earnings ratios are well under the 2002-06
average. They included giants such as Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC),
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC).
On the whole, though, Bove said investors should stop running
into the hardest-hit banks in hopes of riding a big turnaround in a
recovery.
"Investors in general should be buying the high quality banks
not the ones perceived to be offering the biggest 'bang for the
buck,'" he wrote.
"Those companies with the least chance of recapturing their 2007
earnings peak in the next two years performed best in the recent
bank stock rally."
- By Brendan Conway, Dow Jones Newswires; (212) 416-2670;
brendan.conway@dowjones.com