Retail Stocks Rise In August, But The Best May Be Behind Them
August 28 2009 - 4:26PM
Dow Jones News
Retail stocks rose in August for a third straight month but the
pace of growth was tempered, with investors becoming more
discerning as many shares approached highs not seen since last fall
and as second-quarter earnings beats were largely on cost cuts, not
top-line growth.
Expectations for a sluggish back-to-school-season and wariness
about the holidays could cap further significant gains for a group
that has been outpacing the broader market.
Retailers that retain investor appeal include Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. (WMT), Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW) and Staples Inc. (SPLS)
because they are likely to be able to grow their sales in 2010,
Morgan Stanley said.
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD), Best Buy Inc. (BBY) and Dick's
Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS) are among retailers whose continued
customer traffic "issues" temper sales expectations, Morgan Stanley
said.
The Standard & Poor's Retail Index is up 5.2% for August,
with one full trading session left in the month. The performance
compares with the S&P 500's 4.3% gain over the period. The
S&P Retail Index has now risen 38% since the year began, while
the S&P 500 is up 14%.
Williams-Sonoma is the S&P Retail Index's best performer so
far in August, gaining 36% to $19.16. Tiffany was also a major
mover, up 25% for the month. The jewelry chain is being aided by
Friday's 11% gain after posting a second-quarter earnings beat and
raising full-year expectations.
Buckle Inc. (BKE) was among the month's biggest decliners, down
12% as sales-growth momentum slowed. Barnes & Noble (BKS) also
fared poorly, losing 9.3% to $20.88 after posting a big drop in
second-quarter earnings during the month.
Investors will get a sense of retailers' next hurdle -- the
back-to-school selling season -- next week, when the group posts
same-store-sales for August. Retailers are expected to turn in a
better performance than July's dismal showing, with August showing
a 3.9% decline based on preliminary figures from Thomson Reuters,
compared with July's 5.1% drop.
A month-over-month improvement will not necessarily be the
result of more customer spending, though. Retailers face much
easier comparisons. August of last year represented the period when
the bottom really started dropping out for retailers. As a result,
same-store-sales rose just 0.2% that month. The prior month, July
2008, same-store-sales grew by 1.1%, putting retailers up against a
higher hurdle this past July. September, when comps turned negative
last year, should allow even more improvement when retailers post
next month's figures.
August same-store-sales may also be affected by Labor Day
falling later in September. An offsetting factor is that most
states switched their tax-free shopping days to August this year
from July last year.
But even with the tax-free shift, some 83% of consumers are
making an effort to save on back-to-school spending, according to a
survey of almost 1,800 online consumers by PriceGrabber.com.
August figures may also be affected by layaway plans that are
growing in popularity. Sears Holdings Inc. is seeing "much more"
use of its program this year than in 2008, with merchandise ranging
from apparel to pencils being placed aside for full payment, Sears
spokesman Tom Aiello said.
-By Karen Talley; Dow Jones Newswires;
karen.talley@dowjones.com; 212-416-2196