How Do President Bush's Current Job Ratings Compare with Those of His Predecessors, at This Stage of Their First Terms? And to what extent were these ratings predictive of winning reelection? ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- President Bush's latest job ratings in The Harris Poll (51% positive, 48% negative) are remarkably close to those of his predecessors in the last December of their first term in office. Indeed, if one makes an allowance for possible sampling error, there is no statistical difference between President Bush's latest ratings and those of President Clinton, President George H. Bush, President Reagan and President Carter. As the table below shows, historically the presidents' job ratings at this time in their first terms was not in any way a predictor of whether or not they would be re-elected. The only president in the last forty years with substantially higher ratings at the end of his first three years was Lyndon Johnson. In December 1965, his Harris Poll ratings were 67% positive, 33% negative. Unlike all of his successors he chose not to run for re-election because, many people believe, he thought he might lose. The presidents who were re-elected for a second term -- Nixon, Reagan and Clinton -- did not, on average, have better ratings than those who were defeated -- Ford, Carter and George H. Bush. PRESIDENT BUSH AND HIS PREDECESSORS Harris Interactive job ratings at the end of the third year of their first term President Date Positive Negative Not Sure Re-election Bush, G.W. Dec. 2003 51 48 1 ? Clinton Dec. 1995 49 50 1 Won Bush, G.H. Nov. 1991 52 48 * Lost Reagan Dec. 1983 49 50 1 Won Carter Dec. 27-30, 1979 51 48 - Lost Dec. 14-16, 1979 48 51 - Ford** Nov. 1976 49 49 2 Lost Nixon Nov. 1971 53 46 1 Won Johnson Dec. 1965 67 33 - Did not run * = Less than 0.5 percent. ** = President Ford's ratings a year before his re-election bid. Unlike the other presidents listed here, this was not his third year, as he only became president when President Nixon resigned in 1975. About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/) is a worldwide market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, U.S.A., Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research. The Company conducts international research through wholly owned subsidiaries -- London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/) and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan -- as well as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of local market- and opinion- research firms, and various U.S. offices. To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/. DATASOURCE: Harris Interactive CONTACT: Nancy Wong of Harris Interactive, +1-585-214-7316, Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ http://www.harrispollonline.com/

Copyright