How Do President Bush's Current Job Ratings Compare with Those of His Predecessors, at This Stage of Their First Terms?
January 02 2004 - 6:29PM
PR Newswire (US)
How Do President Bush's Current Job Ratings Compare with Those of
His Predecessors, at This Stage of Their First Terms? And to what
extent were these ratings predictive of winning reelection?
ROCHESTER, N.Y., Jan. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- President Bush's latest job
ratings in The Harris Poll (51% positive, 48% negative) are
remarkably close to those of his predecessors in the last December
of their first term in office. Indeed, if one makes an allowance
for possible sampling error, there is no statistical difference
between President Bush's latest ratings and those of President
Clinton, President George H. Bush, President Reagan and President
Carter. As the table below shows, historically the presidents' job
ratings at this time in their first terms was not in any way a
predictor of whether or not they would be re-elected. The only
president in the last forty years with substantially higher ratings
at the end of his first three years was Lyndon Johnson. In December
1965, his Harris Poll ratings were 67% positive, 33% negative.
Unlike all of his successors he chose not to run for re-election
because, many people believe, he thought he might lose. The
presidents who were re-elected for a second term -- Nixon, Reagan
and Clinton -- did not, on average, have better ratings than those
who were defeated -- Ford, Carter and George H. Bush. PRESIDENT
BUSH AND HIS PREDECESSORS Harris Interactive job ratings at the end
of the third year of their first term President Date Positive
Negative Not Sure Re-election Bush, G.W. Dec. 2003 51 48 1 ?
Clinton Dec. 1995 49 50 1 Won Bush, G.H. Nov. 1991 52 48 * Lost
Reagan Dec. 1983 49 50 1 Won Carter Dec. 27-30, 1979 51 48 - Lost
Dec. 14-16, 1979 48 51 - Ford** Nov. 1976 49 49 2 Lost Nixon Nov.
1971 53 46 1 Won Johnson Dec. 1965 67 33 - Did not run * = Less
than 0.5 percent. ** = President Ford's ratings a year before his
re-election bid. Unlike the other presidents listed here, this was
not his third year, as he only became president when President
Nixon resigned in 1975. About Harris Interactive(R) Harris
Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/) is a worldwide
market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris
Poll(R), and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct
scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in
Rochester, New York, U.S.A., Harris Interactive combines
proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in
predictive, custom and strategic research. The Company conducts
international research through wholly owned subsidiaries --
London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/) and Tokyo-based
Harris Interactive Japan -- as well as through the Harris
Interactive Global Network of local market- and opinion- research
firms, and various U.S. offices. To become a member of the Harris
Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online
surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/. DATASOURCE: Harris
Interactive CONTACT: Nancy Wong of Harris Interactive,
+1-585-214-7316, Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/
http://www.harrispollonline.com/
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