US Bank Deposits Hit Record; Customers Shift Business Around
August 20 2009 - 2:05PM
Dow Jones News
U.S. banks have collected a record $7.5 trillion in deposits as
customers feel reassured by government support. But the biggest
banks are also watching in frustration as longtime clients spread
their business, and their deposits, among multiple other banks.
Consider Ted Feight, who plans to move most of his business away
from what was once National City Corp. after doing business with
the bank for 25 years.
The president of Creative Financial Design in Lansing, Mich. has
told some financial planning clients to do the same - especially
those who hold more than $250,000, the limit for government
insurance. He watched the big Cleveland bank crumble last year
under bad loans and has now grown nervous about its sale to
Pitsburgh-based PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC)
"I used to take clients there," Feight says, "whereas now I'm
taking clients away from them."
PNC spokesman Fred Solomon said the bank has "gained back more
than $2 billion in deposits from National City customers since
January."
"This is our eighth acquisition in the past five years," he
said, "and we have a successful track record of retaining more than
90% of the customers."
A year ago, consumers placed 44% of their financial business
with their primary bank, according to consulting firm Mercatus.
They now place only about a third of their business at their main
bank and report being frustrated by failed banks, bonuses for
bailed-out bankers and rising account fees at government-supported
banks.
The awkward coincidence is that customers are pouring record
levels of cash into reserve accounts at the biggest banks -
normally a good sign that business is booming. Domestic U.S.
deposits grew nearly $500 billion to a record $7.5 trillion during
the year ended in March, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp. And they appear to have kept growing since.
Crowds of investors sold assets for cash last year as markets
tumbled. And more recently, a renewed focus on savings has helped
swell deposits further.
But overflowing deposits don't necessarily lead to big profits,
since big banks have to cover hefty fixed costs for buildings,
computers and layers of full-time staff.
In fact, grabbing "wallet share" - or bankers' speak for winning
more of a customer's business - is so important to profits that
banks actually track their progress through various gauges.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), for example, has for years tallied
a "cross-sell ratio" every quarter to track how many products it
sells to its average customer.
But even when published, "cross-sell" ratios and other such
metrics don't necessarily reveal how many customers are actually
using those products, or by how much. Customers are famously known
to open a variety of bank accounts and credit lines, only to let
many sit dormant.
In fact, the broad surge in deposits and new accounts can
disguise an underlying dynamic where big banks merely trade
disaffected customers.
"All those new accounts have to come from somewhere," says John
Philpott, general manager of S1 Enterprise, which works with
banks.
Higher customer turnover is a curve ball for investors and
analysts trying to estimate banks' future "normalized earnings" -
or what kind of profits they're likely to generate once the U.S.
economy emerges from its recession.
Just how high those earnings will be is becoming a more crucial
question, since financial stocks have more than doubled since early
March on hopes that banks will soon start turning post-crisis
profits.
Whether actual future earnings will justify yet more buying is
very much open to debate.
Analysts' estimates for Wells Fargo's earnings in 2011, for
example, range from $2.60 to $4.38 a share, according to
FactSet.
For Bank of America Corp. (BAC), which is struggling with high
loan losses and its imposing purchase of Merrill Lynch, estimates
range from $1.68 to $2.91 a share.
How those earnings end up panning out will depend heavily on
which customers stick around that long.
-By Marshall Eckblad, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2156;
marshall.eckblad@dowjones.com