SM Energy Tops Consensus - Analyst Blog
February 24 2012 - 9:45AM
Zacks
SM Energy
Company’s (SM) fourth-quarter 2011 adjusted earnings of 60
cents per share increased by over 30% from the year-ago earnings of
46 cents. The results also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56
cents.
Full-year 2011 adjusted earnings
increased nearly 87% to $2.56 per share from last year’s profit
level of $1.37.
Fourth quarter earnings recorded a
jump on the back of greater production. Production growth was
driven by robust results in the company's Eagle Ford shale and
Bakken/Three Forks programs.
Total revenue of $379.5 million
leaped 29% from $294.1 million in the prior-year quarter and
surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $347 million. Oil, gas
and natural gas liquid (NGL) production revenues contributed $396.9
million (up almost 59% year over year) to the total revenue. Total
revenues decreased compared to oil, gas and natural gas liquid
(NGL) production revenues, due to hedging losses and loss on
divestiture operations.
Full-year 2011 total revenue
increased nearly 47% to $1,603.3 million from the year-earlier
level of $1,092.8 million.
Operational
Performance
The company’s fourth-quarter
production came in at 557.9 million cubic feet equivalent per day
(MMcfe/d), up 62% year over year, and 13% above the midpoint of
management’s target range of 479–509 MMcfe/d.
SM Energy produced 313.0 million
cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas in the quarter,
reflecting a 39% year-over-year growth. Oil production also climbed
34% year over year to 26.7 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d).
Natural gas liquids contributed 14.1 MBbls/d to the total
volume.
Including the effect of hedging,
average equivalent price per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) was $7.58
compared with $7.98 in the year-ago period. Average realized prices
(inclusive of hedging activities) were $4.36 per Mcf of natural gas
and $80.63 per barrel of oil, down 27% and up nearly 15%,
respectively, from the comparable quarter last year.
On the cost front, unit lease
operating expense (LOE) decreased 20% year over year to 85 cents
per Mcfe in the quarter. Transportation expenses increased
substantially to 60 cents per Mcfe (from 22 cents in the year-ago
period); general and administrative expenses were 69 cents per Mcfe
(down 31%); while depletion, depreciation and amortization
(DD&A) expenses increased 9% to $3.26 per Mcfe from the
year-earlier level of $2.99 per Mcfe.
Liquidity
Operating cash flow improved to
$275.1 million during the quarter from $176.4 million in the
year-ago quarter. At the end of the quarter, SM Energy had a cash
balance of $119.2 million and long-term debt of $985.1 million,
with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 40.2%.
Guidance
For the first quarter of 2012, SM
Energy’s production forecast is in the range of 48.5 Bcfe to 52.0
Bcfe. The company’s LOE per Mcfe will likely be in the range of 90
cents to 96 cents while, DD&A will remain in the $3.35–$3.55
range.
For 2012, SM Energy has slightly
reduced its forecast to a range of 220–227 Bcfe from 225–232 Bcfe,
to reflect the reduction of activity in the Haynesville shale
program.
SM Energy’s 2012 capital spending
is expected to remain within $1,400 million to $1,500 million.
Outlook
Denver, Colorado-based oil and gas
company, SM Energy remains proactive in its attempt to hold a
significant position in emerging shale plays and focus more on
resource, with an inventory of repeatable drilling prospects and a
high rate of return. We believe that the company’s emerging core
portfolio is a positive catalyst for visible organic growth over
the next several years.
During the year, SM Energy had set
a production growth target of 50% which it achieved by leveraging
off the considerable ground work set up in the preceding years in
the Eagle Ford as well as Bakken Three Forks programs. The company
holds an equally positive outlook for 2012 as it has the financial
strength and asset base in liquid rich plays which will facilitate
growth.
However, our long-term Outperform
recommendation stems from SM Energy’s natural gas-weighted
reserves. The company derives a significant portion of its
operating revenues from natural gas.
SM Energy’s competitor,
Range Resources Corporation (RRC) also reported
stellar fourth-quarter 2011 earnings piggybacking on higher
production level, realized prices and lower unit costs.
We currently maintain a long-term
Outperform recommendation on SM Energy. However, the company holds
a Zacks #3 Rank, which is equivalent to a short-term Hold
rating.
RANGE RESOURCES (RRC): Free Stock Analysis Report
SM ENERGY CO (SM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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