CMAI completes 2012 World Vinyls Analysis
September 14 2011 - 11:14AM
Business Wire
Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI), acquired by IHS Inc.
(NYSE: IHS - www.ihs.com), announces the completion of the 2012
World Vinyls Analysis. The annual global market study
covers past developments and future projections for supply, demand,
production, capacity, trade, pricing and profitability in the
global vinyls industry for the period 2006 to 2016. Included with
each analysis is 12 months access to CMAI’s online capacity and
supply/demand databases with a mid-term supply/demand update
incorporating CMAI’s latest market outlook. The analysis is a
necessary resource for business managers and planning professionals
who need to make strategic business decisions in a rapidly changing
global economic and market environment.
Current Situation
The pace of the expansion in the global PVC market has been
moderating since the end of 2010 as government stimulus programs
expired and public spending decreased. The adoption of austerity
measures, particularly in Europe, further reduced activity in the
construction sector. In many emerging market economies, the growing
threat of overheating in real estate and construction led to the
imposition of restrictive policy measures and tighter monetary
policy. Even the buoyant Chinese PVC market is cooling
somewhat.
The rapid recovery in PVC consumption moderated the adverse
impact on producers, resulting in fewer closures of vinyls
facilities over the past 12 months. The current wave of new Chinese
PVC capacity will likely exceed last year’s estimates and lower
global utilization rates in 2011. Excess vinyls capacity and the
resulting low utilization rates continue to exert downward pressure
on cash margins. While prices have increased in response to rising
energy and raw material costs, regional PVC margins remain close to
or even below their respective 2009 levels.
PVC Supply/Demand Outlook
The current wide output gap in the global vinyls market is
forecast to persist through 2013 and narrow only gradually
thereafter. The prolonged global oversupply situation is creating a
more competitive international market environment that will force
producers to become more cost efficient or exit the market.
Profitability even for integrated vinyls producers is projected to
remain at historically low levels, while cash margins for
non-integrated producers will likely be marginal or even negative.
Participation in the international market, consequently, will be
limited to cost advantaged producers.
Economic development and the associated rising living standards
and industrialization will remain the main drivers of vinyls
consumption, with vinyls demand closely tied to residential,
non-residential and public construction as well as infrastructure
projects. Therefore, the potential for future PVC demand growth is
greatest in emerging market economies with large population bases,
such as China, India, Brazil and Indonesia. In contrast,
consumption in most developed countries will likely rise only
gradually from the still depressed levels in the aftermath of the
global recession.
Global vinyls trade is firmly on the road to recovery aided by
growing price differentials between regions. The trend toward
greater integration and declines in the number of stand-alone
vinyls units is not expected to be a limiting factor. Rather the
lack of competitive local production together with strong demand
growth in the emerging market economies will ensure a steady
increase in exports of EDC and VCM.
To find out more about the current market issues and CMAI’s
outlook for this industry, order the 2012 World Vinyls
Analysis now at www.cmaiglobal.com. The analysis is available
in book and CD-ROM format, with access to CMAI’s Online Capacity
and Supply/Demand databases. With updates to the Capacity database
as changes in the marketplace occur, and a bi-annual update to the
Supply/Demand database, clients benefit from up-to-date market
information necessary for strategic business decisions.
CMAI is the premier provider of Market, Planning and Business
Advisory services offering a unique combination of consulting
analytics and expertise for the global chemical, plastics, fibers
and chlor-alkali industries. With offices in Houston, New York,
London, Dubai, Düsseldorf, Bangkok, Singapore and Shanghai, CMAI
has provided expert business advisory services to a broad range of
companies across multiple value chains and geographies since 1979.
Clients to CMAI services include companies in the following
industries: chemical & oil, technology & EPC; banking and
financial institutions; plastic converters; textile & apparel
manufacturers; brand-owners; grocers/retailers, government
agencies; trading.
IHS (NYSE: IHS) is the leading source of information and insight
in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape, including
energy and power; design and supply chain; defense, risk and
security; environmental, health and safety (EHS) and
sustainability; country and industry forecasting; and commodities,
pricing and cost. Businesses and governments in more than 165
countries around the globe rely on the comprehensive content,
expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS to
make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and
confidence. IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a
publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005.
Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS employs
approximately 5,100 people in more than 30 countries around the
world.
For more information on the 2012 World Vinyls
Analysis, visit CMAI’s website at www.cmaiglobal.com or
contact:
Jamie Van Fleet
CMAI1401 Enclave Parkway, Suite 500
Houston, TX 77077 U.S.A.
Tel: 281-531-4660 Fax: 281-531-9966
Email:
jvanfleet@cmaiglobal.com
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1-281-531-4660Cmai@cmaiglobal.com
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65-6-226-5363Asia@cmaiglobal.com
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1-914-579-0010
NewYork@cmaiglobal.com
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49-211-710081-10Dusseldorf@cmaiglobal.com
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