Teva Provides In-Line 2012 Outlook - Analyst Blog
December 23 2011 - 10:00AM
Zacks
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA)
recently provided guidance for 2012. The company expects to earn
$5.48 and $5.68 per share on total net sales of about $22 billion.
Guidance was generally in line with expectations. While the Zacks
Consensus Earnings Estimate, prior to the release of guidance, was
$5.62, the Zacks Consensus Revenue Estimate was about $21.8
billion. The Cephalon acquisition is expected to boost 2012
earnings by 20-25 cents.
Teva expects to generate $11 billion sales in the US with the EU
and Rest of the World (RoW) generating sales of $6.6 billion and
$4.4 billion, respectively. The major chunk of revenues ($11.8
billion) will be provided by the generics business.
US Generics Biz to Rebound
Teva’s US generics business, which has been performing below
expectations over the past few quarters, is expected to rebound in
2012. The company is guiding towards sales of $5 billion, with
sales slated to benefit from patent expirations and product
launches. New generic launches are expected to contribute $650
million to sales. However, we were disappointed to hear that new
product launches do not include the generic version of
Abbott Laboratories’ (ABT) TriCor.
Performance in the EU generics business will remain strong at $4
billion with Teva holding a leading position in several EU markets.
RoW generic product sales are expected to be about $2.8 billion,
with Japan and Russia continuing to perform well.
Meanwhile, branded products are expected to contribute $8.2
billion to the top line with multiple sclerosis drug, Copaxone,
contributing $3.8 billion. Oncology product, Treanda (a part of
Cephalon’s portfolio), is expected to generate sales of $550
million. Sleep disorder drugs Provigil and Nuvigil are expected to
generate sales of $375 million and $300 million, respectively.
While Women’s Health products are expected to contribute $525
million to revenues, ProAir HFA is expected to generate revenues of
$490 million. QVAR and Azilect are slated to post revenues of $400
million and $350 million, respectively. Finally, OTC sales are
expected to be about $1 billion. Teva has a partnership agreement
with Procter & Gamble (PG) that will target
the consumer health care market. Other net sales are also expected
to be $1 billion.
Teva expects to spend between 6.9% to $7.3% of net sales on
R&D. With the Cephalon acquisition, Teva now has 40 late stage
clinical programs, most of which are in phase III. We expect
detailed information on the company’s innovative pipeline
mid-2012.
Selling & marketing expenses (including royalties of about
$400 million) are expected to range between 18.4% and 20% of net
sales. General and administrative expenses are expected in the
range of 5.1% - 5.5% of net sales.
First and Last Quarters to be Strong
As far as quarterly performance is concerned, the first quarter
is expected to be relatively strong mainly due to Provigil and the
launch of a generic version of Forest
Laboratories’ (FRX) Lexapro. The second and third
quarters of 2012 will be lighter with the entry of generic versions
of Provigil. The fourth quarter is expected to be strong on the
back of several generic launches and the winter seasonality
effect.
Positive on Share Buyback Program
Teva also announced a share buyback program. The company will be
repurchasing shares worth up to $3 billion, potentially over a
three-year time frame. The share buyback will be financed out of
free cash flow, which is expected to be about $3 billion in 2012.
We are positive on this program which will return value to
shareholders.
Our Take
We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Teva, which
carries a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term Hold rating). We are encouraged
to see that the company has set achievable targets for 2012.
However, we expect the stock to remain range-bound given the lack
of significant catalysts.
ABBOTT LABS (ABT): Free Stock Analysis Report
FOREST LABS A (FRX): Free Stock Analysis Report
PROCTER & GAMBL (PG): Free Stock Analysis Report
TEVA PHARM ADR (TEVA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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