NCO & Delinquency a Mixed Bag - Analyst Blog
December 16 2011 - 12:08PM
Zacks
The regulatory filings by major credit card companies have
disclosed mixed results in credit card defaults and delinquency
rate for November 2011. According to these filings, three of the
nation's top six credit card companies reported a decline in card
defaults, while two of them recorded lower delinquency rates.
In comparison with the prior month,Bank of America
Corporation (BAC), JPMorgan Chase &
Co. (JPM), and Discover Financial
Services (DFS) recorded a fall in their respective credit
card defaults, where as Citigroup Inc. (C),
American Express Company (AXP) and Capital
One Financial Corp. (COF) reported a surge for the
same.
Card companies usually write off the loans that are 180 days
past due, assuming those as uncollectible. For BofA, on an
annualized basis, net charges-off (NCO) rate fell to 5.67% in
November 2011 as against 5.99% in October 2011 and 9.92% in
November 2010.
Similarly, JPMorgan reported a drop in NCO rate to 4.02% of its
total loan balance in November 2011 compared with 4.18% in October
2011 and 7.16% in November 2010.
However, on an annualized basis, Capital One’s NCO rate surged
from 3.96% in the prior month but decreased from 7.56% in the
prior-year month to 4.29% in November 2011.
In November 2011, the delinquency rate, indicating the future
rate of default, dropped for BofA and Discover Financial, whereas
it increased for JP Morgan and Citigroup; however, American Express
and Capital One witnessed no change in it since October 2011.
For BofA, delinquency rate for 30 days or more (on an annualized
basis) dropped from 3.97% in October 2011 and 5.47% in November
2010 to 3.96%. The delinquency rate for 30 days or more (on an
annualized basis) for Capital One was at par with October 2011 but
declined from 4.26% in November 2010 to 3.73% in November 2011.
Conversely, JPMorgan’s delinquency rate for 30 days or more (on
an annualized basis) increased slightly to 2.56%, compared with
2.55% in October 2011 and 3.68% in November 2010.
Conclusion
The decline in default rates is largely arising from the
inability of the defaulting card holders to get cards with large
credit limits. Besides, this waning default trend signifies the
card owners’ improving financial condition. As these card owners
are gradually recovering from the after-effects of recession, they
are trying their level best to reduce their credit card debts.
Additionally, various regulatory reforms undertaken by the
Federal Reserve, including limiting the fees that banks can charge
and constricting the pace at which they can raise their interest
rates, are also enabling the card owners to bring down their
balances.
However, the recent data from TransUnion shows that in the
September quarter, a significant number of cards were issued to
those customers who had some payment-related issues in the
past.
This indicates that once these customers start using their
cards, defaults may occur resulting into higher NCOs and
delinquencies. So, we remain concerned about this trend going
forward.
Currently, Capital One retains a Zacks #2 Rank, which translates
into a short-term Buy’ rating, while Discover Financial, JPMorgan,
American Express, Citigroup and BofA retain a Zacks #3 Rank, which
implies a short-term ‘Hold’ rating.
AMER EXPRESS CO (AXP): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANK OF AMER CP (BAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
CITIGROUP INC (C): Free Stock Analysis Report
CAPITAL ONE FIN (COF): Free Stock Analysis Report
DISCOVER FIN SV (DFS): Free Stock Analysis Report
JPMORGAN CHASE (JPM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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