The global banking industry is still a sorry sight, and its near
term looks even worse with several negatives like asset-quality
troubles, weak revenue growth, steeper costs and weak loan demand.
But thanks to the worldwide regulatory reform, the sector has at
least entered a transformation phase. Needless to mention, a change
has yet to be felt.
Potential threats from a deeper European debt crisis and the
uncertain outlook for the U.S. economy following the rating
downgrades by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) were quite obvious
and the sector entered the second half of 2011 with a lot less
momentum than was anticipated.
Though the growth potential of some non-U.S. banks could be subdued
due to higher reserve requirements, increased property taxes and
strict lending limits as part of the regulatory overhaul, and
greater transparency in regulations could strengthen the
fundamentals of many banks. It is expected to create a less risky
lane for the overall industry.
Moreover, as inter-country investment walls have fallen, some large
non-U.S. banks are freely expanding beyond their domestic
boundaries through mergers and acquisitions.
Since 2010, the banking sector has been recovering at a moderate
pace from the latest financial crisis that started as a credit
issue in the subprime enclave of the U.S. mortgage market in
mid-2007 and spilled over the globe.
Though the malice spread by the financial crisis is behind us,
banks are now dealing with regulatory pressure as they had to take
resort to taxpayers' money and government intervention to remain
afloat. Moreover, government efforts to alleviate industry concerns
have significantly raised political hurdles in the sector over
time.
Politics will continue to influence lending decisions of banks
until they repay the government money in full. According to banking
regulators, if governments withdraw their support from banks before
giving them sufficient time to restore their financial strength,
the sector could collapse again.
The industry has been adopting tougher regulatory measures to
prevent the recurrence of a global financial crisis and restore
public confidence. In June, the oversight body of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision proposed new rules that would
force the world's biggest banks to hold extra capital on their
balance sheets as protection and prevention against any financial
catastrophe. The targeted banks are those that could threaten
global economy if they collapse.
This extra capital requirement is an addition to the set of minimum
capital standards, known as Basel III, proposed by regulatory
officials of more than two dozen countries in 2010.
With these regulatory measures, the individual capital structures
of banks will remain under constant pressure. The resulting
slowdown at some big banks could be seen as a blessing in disguise
as it would eventually make their balance sheets more
recession-proof.
Balance sheet repair and credit environment recovery will make the
valuations of some non-U.S. banks attractive. Particularly,
valuations of the mega banks, which could comfortably maintain the
minimum capital norms mandated by the Basel Committee, will
experience the fastest valuation upside. Consequently, we believe
this would be the perfect time for mid- to long-term investors to
consider non-U.S. bank stocks, as their valuations are now
comparatively cheap.
Investors with short-term targets, however, should be very careful
while choosing non-U.S. stocks at this point as near-term
fundamentals remain weak. Asset quality lacks potential to rebound
anytime soon as default rates for individuals and companies are not
expected to materially subside; and revenue growth might remain
weak with faltering loan growth.
The sector anticipates a turnaround in the first half of 2012. But
this will vary from country to country, depending on industry
circumstances. We believe that banks in emerging economies ––
Chile, Brazil or India –– might make more attractive investments,
akin to our expectations from certain regional banks in the
U.S.
The same, however, cannot be said of European institutions. In
early 2010, the debt crisis originating in the Greek economy shook
the stability of the European Union's (EU) monetary policies.
Starting as a solvency crisis in a single country, the turmoil
spread over to the entire Euro-zone.
Greece adopted measures to minimize government spending, but there
is no guarantee that the country is out of the woods as affluent
domestic and foreign investors will not stop withdrawing their
money from Greek banks anytime soon. Also, the rising inflation
will force regulators to tighten their policies in the Euro-zone,
making banks less flexible.
May 2011 saw the re-emergence of the Greek crisis, with refinancing
of public debts. Political instability further compounded the
problem. The Greek government quickly intervened; the European
Union leaders lent financial assurance and the situation is now
under control. In October 2011, European Union leaders agreed to
prevent the collapse of member economies through a package of
measures. This included a proposal to write off 50% of Greek debt
and demand 9% capitalization by European banks. However, acceptance
of the package became dicey following the Greek Prime Minister’s
announcement of a referendum for the view of the Greek people.
Overall, the European Union is trying hard not just to restore
investor confidence but also the health of the continent’s banking
system, but the issue is far from fully addressed.
Coming to banks in emerging economies, they will obviously face
asset quality issues. However, they are not plagued by other
significant problems that many of the larger banks face in
continental Europe and the United Kingdom, such as toxic securities
and dilution from capital raising. Moreover, these emerging-market
banks generally tend to be well capitalized, aren't as heavily
exposed to property markets, and have significant and growing
sources of non-interest income.
Overall, a key determinant for quick recovery will be the quality
of risk analysis and risk-awareness in decision-making and
incentive policies. So, we believe that accumulating larger capital
buffers over the cycle and reducing pointless complexity in
business will be crucial to banking performance.
Also, the primary attention of policymakers should be on
determining how much longer the fiscal stimulus should continue,
ensuring that it is not withdrawn before a clearer sign of economic
recovery is visible.
OPPORTUNITIES
Among the non-U.S. banks, we recommend
Grupo Financiero
Galicia S.A. (GGAL) with a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy).
Banks that we also like with a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) include
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior S.A.
(BLX) and
Credicorp Ltd. (BAP).
We also like a few Zacks #3 Rank stocks including
Banco
Bradesco S.A. (BBD),
BBVA Banco Frances
S.A. (BFR),
Itau Unibanco Holding S.A.
(ITUB), Bancolombia S.A. (CIB),
Banco
Santander-Chile (SAN),
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
Group Inc. (MTU),
Mizuho Financial Group,
Inc. (MFG),
National Bank of Greece SA
(NBG) and
Sauer-Danfoss Inc. (SHS).
WEAKNESSES
We would suggest avoiding banks in Greece at this point. Also, it
is better to steer clear of banks in Great Britain and Ireland,
particularly those that have participated in government
recapitalization programs and are yet to reimburse the money. In
return for government capital and asset quality protection, these
banks are facing regulatory intervention, like enforcing limits on
dividend payouts and board member nominations.
Currently, banks that we dislike with a Zacks #5 Rank (Strong Sell)
include
Banco Macro S.A. (BMA),
Banco
Santander, S.A. (BTD),
Barclays plc
(BCS),
Credit Suisse Group (CS) and
HSBC
Holdings plc (HBC).
We also dislike a few stocks in the non-U.S. bank universe with a
Zacks #4 Rank (Sell), namely
Banco de Chile (BCH),
Bank of Montreal (BMO),
The Bank Of Nova
Scotia (BNS),
Canadian Imperial Bank of
Commerce (CM),
Deutsche Bank AG (DB),
HDFC Bank Ltd. (HDB),
ICICI Bank
Ltd. (IBN),
KB Financial Group Inc. (KB),
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) and
The
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD).
CREDICORP LTD (BAP): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO BRADESCO (BBD): Free Stock Analysis Report
BARCLAY PLC-ADR (BCS): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO FRANC-ADR (BFR): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO LATINOAME (BLX): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO MACRO-ADR (BMA): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCOLOMBIA-ADR (CIB): Free Stock Analysis Report
CREDIT SUISSE (CS): Free Stock Analysis Report
GRUPO GALIC ADR (GGAL): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO ITAU -ADR (ITUB): Free Stock Analysis Report
MIZUHO FINL-ADR (MFG): Free Stock Analysis Report
MITSUBISHI-UFJ (MTU): Free Stock Analysis Report
NATL BK GR-ADR (NBG): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO SANT -ADR (SAN): Free Stock Analysis Report
SAUER-DANFOSS (SHS): Free Stock Analysis Report
BANCO SANTAN SA (STD): Free Stock Analysis Report
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