CHICAGO, Feb. 16, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Zacks
Investment Ideas feature highlights Features: PriceSmart (Nasdaq:
PSMT), Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD), Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ) and
Tractor Supply Co (Nasdaq: TSCO).
(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20101027/ZIRLOGO)
4 Retail Stocks on the Rise
While the industry is expected to see solid growth overall this
year, there will certainly be some retailers who see tremendous
growth and those who get left behind.
But how do you know which ones to buy and which ones to
avoid?
One important item to look at is same-store sales. This
metric compares sales across stores open at least a year. This is
also known as comp sales.
This is beneficial because it allows investors and analysts to
compare sales between different retailers and can alert them to
shifts in consumer demand. Total sales growth, while important,
will naturally be higher among retailers who are rapidly opening
new stores. Same-store sales ignores this, however, and only
focuses on sales at existing stores.
It's also beneficial in that it excludes the "honeymoon phase"
of strong sales typically experienced shortly after stores are
opened in new locations.
Early Warning Signs
It can also make it easier to spot shifts in consumer tastes or
preferences. Although overall sales for a company might be up, a
few consecutive months of negative comp sales can signal trouble
ahead.
Compare high-end retailer Nordstrom with off-price retailer TJX
Companies, which owns T.J. Maxx,
Marshalls and HomeGoods stores, during the heart of the
recession:
Clearly, consumer habits shifted away from luxury retailers and
towards more value-oriented companies during the Great
Recession.
As the economy continues to pick up, however, which companies
are now seeing consistent increases in same-store sales?
Here are 4 companies seeing strong same-store
sales:
PriceSmart (Nasdaq: PSMT)
PriceSmart operates 28 U.S.-style membership warehouse clubs in
Central America and the
Caribbean. Many might question
whether this business model would work in Latin America. The same-store sales numbers
speak for themselves:
The company will be expanding into South America later this year with the opening
of a store in Colombia. It is a
Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock.
Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD)
LTD operates well-known brands Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works.
Same-store sales have been strong over the last several months,
including a remarkable 24% increase in January (35% at Victoria's Secret):
Valuation is attractive with a PEG ratio of 0.97. It is a Zacks
#3 Rank (Hold) stock.
Zumiez (Nasdaq: ZUMZ)
Zumiez (pronounced "zoomies") is a retailer focused on action
sports like skateboarding, surfing, snowboarding, motocross and
BMX. Same-store sales have been surging over the last several
months:
The company carries no long-term debt and is a Zacks #3 Rank
(Hold) stock.
Tractor Supply Co (Nasdaq: TSCO)
This rural-focused retailer has been on a tear lately. Estimates
have been surging after it recently delivered a strong fourth
quarter in which EPS came in 8% above the Zacks Consensus
Estimate.
Rising agricultural prices have certainly played a role in
Tractor Supply's strong results. The company reports sales each
quarter rather than on a monthly basis, and the results have been
impressive:
Tractor Supply is a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy) stock.
Conclusion
When evaluating retail stocks, it's important to look at a
company's recent same-store sales trends. These 4 are seeing strong
demand for their products in existing locations, which should lead
to rising earnings estimates and rising stock prices.
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