However, Redfin reports that recent shifts in
migration patterns in California and Florida may indicate that
residents are becoming more responsive to climate risk
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Scores of people are moving to the parts of
America endangered by wildfires, flooding and extreme heat—even as
those dangers become more frequent and intense—according to a new
report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate
brokerage.
America’s high-fire-risk counties saw 63,365 more people move in
than out in 2023. Much of that net inflow was people moving to
Texas. But the story differs from state to state; among
California’s high-fire-risk areas, more people left than moved in.
That marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be
growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.
The nation’s high-flood-risk counties saw 16,144 more people
move in than out. Florida drove a large share of the migration to
high-flood-risk counties, but a smaller share than it did in 2022,
indicating that people may be growing more responsive to flood risk
in the Sunshine State.
The opposite occurred in low-risk areas; America’s low-fire-risk
counties saw a net outflow of 38,401 people in 2023, and
low-flood-risk counties experienced a net outflow of 6,892.
This is based on a Redfin analysis of domestic migration data
from the U.S. Census Bureau and climate-risk scores from First
Street. Census migration data for 2023 covers July 2022-July 2023,
and Census migration data for 2022 covers July 2021-July 2022.
Redfin defines a high-risk county as one that ranks in the top 10%
when it comes to the share of homes facing high fire or flood
risk.
“Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters
are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those
people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate
change isn’t the top concern,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah
de la Campa. “For a lot of Americans, things like cost of living
and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk,
which can feel less immediate and more abstract. But the
cost-benefit calculus seems to be shifting in places like
California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and
an uptick in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on
residents and made national news.”
Roughly 1 in 11 (8.8%) people who plan to move soon cited
concern for natural disasters or climate risks as a reason,
according to a Redfin-commissioned survey of roughly 3,000 U.S.
homeowners and renters conducted by Qualtrics in February 2024. But
other responses were much more common: Wanted more space (32.4%),
lower cost of living (26.4%) and to be closer to family (16.4%), to
name a few.
A Lot of People Are Moving to Texas, Which Faces High Fire
Risk
Migration to fire-prone Texas fueled a significant portion of
the national net inflow to high-fire-risk areas last year. Here’s
the breakdown:
- A total of 97,535 people moved into high-fire-risk U.S.
counties, while 34,170 moved out, which is how Redfin got a net
inflow of 63,365 in section one.
- 35,175 of the aforementioned 97,535—or 36.1%—were people who
moved to Texas. That’s up from 28.7% in 2022. All in all,
high-fire-risk counties in Texas saw a net inflow of 30,156—a big
chunk of the nationwide net inflow.
Texas is home to five of the 10 high-fire-risk counties that saw
the largest net inflows of people last year. Four of those counties
are located in the area surrounding Dallas-Fort Worth, which is
home to a lot of state park land.
County
State county is in
Net inflow (2023)
Share of homes facing high fire
risk
Riverside County
California
7,807
78.5%
Parker County
Texas
6,960
78%
Weld County
Colorado
6,254
63.8%
Douglas County
Colorado
5,465
93.7%
Hunt County
Texas
4,530
71.4%
Pima County
Arizona
3,823
72.5%
Grayson County
Texas
3,441
66.5%
Wise County
Texas
3,008
68.3%
Midland County
Texas
2,584
77.1%
Larimer County
Colorado
2,249
66.2%
Texas isn’t often the first state that comes to mind when people
consider fire risk, but it had more wildfires last year (7,102)
than any state but California (7,364), and actually did have the
highest number of wildfires in 2022. Aside from California, the
Lone Star State also has the greatest number of homes in the
Wildland Urban Interface—the part of the country where developed
land intermingles with undeveloped land, making it especially
vulnerable to wildfires.
Flood-Prone Houston Bucks the Trend, With More People Leaving
Than Moving In
Five high-flood-risk counties in Texas had net inflows of more
than 2,000 people in 2023. All are just outside of Houston, which
last month grappled with flooding and power outages due to
Hurricane Beryl, along with sweltering heat.
Harris County, which includes Houston proper and also faces high
flood risk, is an outlier. It saw a net outflow of 22,792 people
last year. That may partly reflect families moving to the suburbs,
which gained popularity during the pandemic as remote work allowed
people to prioritize things like big homes and access to nature
over proximity to the office. But there are also climate
migrants—people leaving due to climate risk. Redfin Premier real
estate agent Nicole Nodarse is one; she’s leaving Houston in August
for Salem, OR.
“The main climate issue in Houston is flooding, but the major
factor driving me away is the heat. I don’t want to go through
another Houston summer,” Nodarse said. “But a lot of people are
still moving here because they like the low prices and the
politics. Homeowners insurance is becoming a big deal, though; it’s
much more expensive than it used to be, and a lot of people who
installed 30-year roofs are now having to replace them after 15
years because some insurers won’t cover the home if the roof is
older than that.”
Nearly one-third (31.4%) of homes in Harris County face high
flood risk, and 100% of homes face high heat risk.
A Lot of People Are Moving to Florida, Which Faces Extreme
Flood Risk
Migration to flood-prone Florida fueled a sizable chunk of the
national net inflow to high-flood-risk areas last year. Here’s the
breakdown:
- A total of 219,799 people moved into high-flood-risk U.S.
counties, while 203,655 moved out, which is how Redfin got a net
inflow of 16,144 in section one.
- 117,574 of the aforementioned 219,799—or 53.5%—were people who
moved to Florida. All in all, high-flood-risk counties in Florida
saw a net inflow of 68,564—contributing significantly to the
national net inflow. (The national net inflow is smaller than the
Florida net inflow because the Florida net inflow was partly offset
by outflows in other areas.)
- While Florida’s impact on the national figure is large, it has
shrunk; Florida accounted for 53.5% of migration to high-flood-risk
areas in 2023, down from 57.3% in 2022. This could be because
people are becoming more aware of flood risk and surging insurance
costs.
Florida is home to six of the 10 high-flood-risk counties that
saw the largest net inflows of people last year. All six are
located on the Florida coast.
County
State county is in
Net inflow (2023)
Share of homes facing high flood
risk
Fort Bend County
Texas
15,757
39.2%
Brevard County
Florida
14,886
24.2%
St. Johns County
Florida
12,309
29.4%
Volusia County
Florida
12,284
30.7%
Manatee County
Florida
11,300
29.2%
Sarasota County
Florida
8,526
29.3%
Lee County
Florida
8,374
50.4%
Brazoria County
Texas
7,888
53.8%
Brunswick County
North Carolina
7,796
26.6%
Sussex County
Delaware
7,329
28.8%
Miami bucks the trend. Miami-Dade County, where 38.9% of homes
face high flood risk, saw a net outflow of 47,597 people in 2023.
That’s a bigger outflow than almost any other county in the nation.
Some people have left due to climate dangers, but many have been
priced out due to the surge in housing costs during the pandemic.
The median home sale price in the Miami metro area is $555,000, up
almost 75% from $319,000 at this time in 2019.
“Miami has gentrified. Many of the people who are selling their
homes now are moving elsewhere because they can no longer afford to
live here given the rise in interest rates, housing prices,
insurance costs and HOA fees for condo dwellers,” said Rafael
Corrales, a Redfin Premier agent in Miami. “A lot of the buyers in
the market are paying in cash, which allows them to forgo
homeowners insurance. That means they don’t have to deal with
skyrocketing premiums, but it also means they’re on their own if a
storm hits.”
Florida, along with California, is in the middle of a
housing-insurance crisis. Many homeowners have seen their premiums
skyrocket, and some have lost coverage altogether because
intensifying natural disaster risk has prompted many insurers to
stop doing business in the two states. The good news is that homes
being built in Florida today tend to be more resilient than older
homes because they must adhere to stricter, modern building
codes.
“Prospective homebuyers are asking me a lot more questions about
natural disasters and insurance costs than they were previously.
About three-quarters of the sellers I speak to express frustration
over recent increases in their insurance premiums,” Corrales said.
“If you’re looking to buy a home in Florida, you should know that
you can’t be close to the water without being in a flood zone. If
you’re within three miles of the coastline, mother nature is going
to pay you a visit. That’s the price you pay for living in
paradise.”
People Are Leaving Fire-Prone California
While fire-prone America saw more people move in than leave in
2023, there were still a lot of people who left, and many of them
left California:
- A total of 34,170 people left high-fire-risk U.S. counties last
year.
- 17,357 of those people—or 50.8%—left California. That’s up from
41.9% in 2022, which may signal that people in the Golden State
have grown more responsive to fire risk.
- Overall, California’s high-fire-risk areas saw a net outflow of
6,937 people in 2023. That marks a reversal from 2022, when
high-fire-risk counties saw a slight net inflow (+763).
California is home to five of the 10 high-fire-risk counties
that saw the largest net outflows in 2023. Two of those counties
are in and around Napa, which has sustained significant wildfire
damage in recent years, and another is north of Lake Tahoe, which
has also been hit by wildfires. The remaining two are on the
coast—one is next to Santa Barbara and one includes the city of
Santa Cruz. Many of these counties also have high home prices,
which may be pushing some people out of the area.
County
State county is in
Net outflow (2023)
Share of homes facing high fire
risk
Ventura County
California
(6,754)
67.7%
Santa Cruz County
California
(3,455)
68.6%
Solano County
California
(1,965)
66.8%
Boulder County
Colorado
(1,919)
68.1%
Telfair County
Georgia
(1,455)
70.2%
Napa County
California
(1,339)
71.8%
Geary County
Kansas
(1,252)
63.2%
Lassen County
California
(1,179)
81%
Comanche County
Oklahoma
(1,057)
70.3%
Potter County
Texas
(994)
76.4%
“We live between the ocean and the bay, with the beautiful
coastal mountains between, which means we have high fire risk,
flood risk, and always the potential for an earthquake,” said Julie
Zubiate, a Redfin Premier agent in the Bay Area. “I recently had a
condo almost fall out of contract because Fannie Mae switched my
client from approved to unapproved while under escrow. Fannie Mae
decided the home's HOA wasn't protected enough from climate
disasters. It took awhile, but we found a lender willing to take on
the risk—but at a higher cost to my clients.”
Allstate, California’s sixth largest insurer, is seeking to
raise homeowners insurance costs by 34% on average. That would
impact over 350,000 people and exceed the 30% hike sought last
month by State Farm, the biggest insurer in the state. Allstate
stopped writing new homeowners policies in California in 2022.
“We’re getting a lot of transplants from California and Florida
who are concerned about climate change,” said Kristin Sanchez, a
Redfin Premier agent in Nashville. “Many of them are moving here to
escape insurance costs that have become unaffordable.”
To view the full report, including charts and methodology,
please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/climate-migration-real-estate-2024/
About Redfin
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