Earnings Scorecard: Apollo Group - Analyst Blog
July 06 2011 - 1:07PM
Zacks
Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), one of the world's
largest private education providers, posted its third-quarter 2011
results. Street analysts had nearly a week to ponder on the
news.
In the subsequent paragraphs, we cover the recent earnings
announcement, analysts' estimate revisions as well as the Zacks
Rank and long-term recommendation on the stock.
Quarterly Review
On June 30, 2011, Apollo Group delivered earnings of $1.45 in
the third quarter of 2011, outperforming the Zacks Consensus
Estimate of $1.34. However, quarterly earnings declined 16.7% from
the prior-period earnings of $1.74 per share.
Apollo delivered total revenue of $1,235.8 million during the
quarter, down 7.6% from the year-ago quarter attributable to lower
enrollments, partially offset by selective tuition price increases
and better student retention rates.
University of Phoenix Degreed Enrollment dropped 16.4% to
398,400 primarily due to a fall of 40.5% in New Degreed Enrollment.
Total revenue also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of
$1,200.0 million.
Management's Guidance for 2011
The company expects net revenue in the range of $4.65–$4.75
billion in fiscal 2011 and operating income in a $1.15–$1.20
billion band. For fiscal 2012, net revenue is expected to be in the
range of $4.0 billion to $4.25 billion and operating income between
$675.0 million and $800.0 million.
(Read our full coverage on this earnings report:Apollo
Beats Street, Profit Falls)
Agreement of Analysts
Estimate revision trends for the upcoming fourth quarter of
fiscal 2011 portrayed positive sentiments among most of the
analysts as 9 out of 14 analysts, who revisited their estimates
have upgraded it while 5 analysts have downgraded their
estimates.
Whereas for first quarter of fiscal 2012 portrayed negative
sentiments among most of the analysts. Over the last 7 days, 12 out
of 22 analysts revisited their estimates for first-quarter 2012, of
which 5 upgraded and 7 downgraded their estimates.
For full fiscals 2011 and 2012, analysts have positive
sentiments. For fiscals 2011, 17 out of 18 analysts revisiting
their estimates have upgraded while the remaining one has lowered
its estimate over the last 7 days. Similarly, for fiscal 2012, 18
analysts adjusted their estimates in the upward direction, while
only one analyst lowered its estimate.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
The magnitude of estimate revisions for Apollo Group depicts an
optimistic outlook for the upcoming fourth-quarter 2011,
first-quarter 2012 and for the full fiscals 2011 and 2012. The
magnitude of estimate revision for the fourth quarter of 2011 has
been increased by 3 cents to 94 cents per share.
Over the last 7 days, estimated earnings for first quarter of
fiscal 2012 have been increased by a penny to $1.12 per share.
Moreover, for fiscals 2012 and 2013, estimated earnings have been
increased by 15 cents and 7 cents to $4.82 and $3.23, respectively,
over the last seven days.
Our Recommendation
Apollo Group is the industry leader in the U.S. private
education services sector. The company has a strong experience of
more than 35 years in the education industry and possesses one of
the most powerful brands, University of Phoenix, in the sector.
This provides a hard-to-replicate competitive advantage to the
company and bolsters its leading position in the market.
Moreover, post-secondary enrollments are expected to grow
further due to population growth, a shift in the U.S. economy from
manufacturing to service and increasing wage gap between people
with post-secondary degree and those with only a high school
diploma.
Enrollments in online programs are increasing more rapidly than
campus-based programs, as students look to balance school with work
and personal obligations. With 102 campuses and 154 learning
centers in the U.S., Apollo is well positioned to continue to grow
both its online and campus operations.
However, Apollo Group faces intense competition from other
companies offering postsecondary education, such as DeVry
Inc. (DV), Strayer Education Inc. (STRA)
and Career Education Corp. (CECO).
Apollo's shares maintain a Zacks #3 Rank, which translates into
a short-term Hold rating. Our long-term recommendation on the stock
remains Neutral.
APOLLO GROUP (APOL): Free Stock Analysis Report
CAREER EDU CORP (CECO): Free Stock Analysis Report
DEVRY INC (DV): Free Stock Analysis Report
STRAYER EDUC (STRA): Free Stock Analysis Report
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