MARKET SNAPSHOT: Stock-market Bull Is Still On Its Feet, Snorting Its Way Past 1 Obstacle After Another
July 15 2018 - 10:12AM
Dow Jones News
By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch
Will second-quarter earnings be a catalyst?
The story of Juan José Padilla must be legend within the Spanish
bullfighting community. Blinded by a bull in one eye in late 2011
after badly losing his footing in a bullring, the matador made a
stunning comeback to the arena about six months later, much to the
utter shock of fans.
Similarly, Wall Street investors find themselves facing off with
a bull of their own, one that is in its ninth year and, despite
being beset by a cavalcade of concerns, appears on the verge of
resuming the second-longest run since WWII.
That is perhaps much to the consternation of bears and the
confusion of nervous optimist alike.
On Friday, the 13th no less, the S&P 500 index finished
above 2,800 for the first time since Feb. 1, piercing a
psychological, round-number level that had proven a source of key
resistance for the market since it stumbled badly into correction
territory on Feb. 8
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-tumbles-680-points-at-its-low-as-stock-market-selloff-accelerates-2018-02-08).
Indeed, the S&P 500 finished Friday's session 0.1% higher at
2,801.31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.4% at
25,019.41, while the Nasdaq Composite Index mustered sufficient
momentum to eke out back-to-back finishes at an all-time closing
high at 7,825.98, up less than 0.1%.
The S&P 500 sits just 2.5% from its Jan. 26, record, while
the Dow stands 6% short of its closing peak from earlier in the
year.
The recent uptrend has come in fits and starts, but come it has,
amid the aforementioned headwinds. Those factors include:
"The market has been able to grind higher and it's been able to
do so even with these headwinds," Michael Arone, chief investment
strategist for State Street Global Advisors told MarketWatch in an
interview.
The State Street strategist views trade conflagration as a
concern that may have fallen to the wayside even if it continues to
be a situation that unspools over weeks and months.
"The trade discussion has been a bit longer than folks had been
anticipating and it might be longer still -- and a bit messier,"
Arone said.
Check out: Trade-war tracker: Here are the new levies, imposed
and threatened
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trade-war-tracker-here-are-the-new-levies-imposed-and-threatened-2018-06-22)
He added: "This week there seems to be a changing sentiment that
much of the trade threat in terms of the escalation of the tariffs
is being used as a tool to bring the sides together."
In the end, sentiment may be improving as reflected by the stock
market's recent action; but there are many who have cautioned
against being too complacent. Scott Minerd of Guggenheim
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-rally-in-stocks-is-a-last-hurrah-warns-guggenheims-minerd-2018-07-09)
and Ray Dalio, the founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates,
appear to be warning
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/founder-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-first-day-of-the-war-with-china-has-begun-2018-07-06)
that escalating trade disputes could still be a major problem for
the market.
Read: As the trade war heats up, Goldman says take cover in
these stocks
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-trade-war-heats-up-goldman-says-take-cover-in-these-stocks-2018-07-12)
With the admonishment of those high-profile investors in mind,
it is worth reflecting on the one-eyed Padilla's comeback. Just a
few days ago, the flamboyant picador suffered an even more horrific
injury
(https://www.rt.com/news/432352-spanish-bullfighter-scalped-incident/)
at the horns of another bull after once again losing his footing.
This episode came about a year after being gored back in March 2017
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/03/15/a-legendary-one-eyed-spanish-bullfighter-is-gored-yet-again-hes-escaped-death-too-many-times-to-count/?utm_term=.b9b813cbbcca).
Observers can say what they will about bullfighting, or
investing for that matter, but the lesson here may be that over
long periods, the bull eventually wins.
Second-quarter earnings
Second-quarter earnings unofficially kicked off on Friday, but
banks weren't precisely the catalyst for the market move higher,
with the financial sector, as measured by the Financial Select
Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), finishing down by 0.4% even as JPMorgan
Chase & Co. (JPM) beat analysts' estimates
(http://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/jpmorgan-chase-reports-second-quarter-2018-financial-results-2018-07-13).
Still, analysts are estimating 20% earnings-per-share growth, up
from 18.9% at start of the quarter, according to FactSet data. That
is down from the first-quarter's nearly 25% EPS growth.
Powell testimony
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to deliver
(https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-to-testify-before-senate-on-july-17-1530237985)his
semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee
on Tuesday and is likely to testify in front of the House Financial
Services Committee thereafter (though that hasn't been
confirmed).
The testimony comes a little over a month after the Fed raised
interest rates on June 13
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-fed-rate-decision-and-powell-press-conference-live-blog-and-video-2018-06-13)
for the seventh time since the end of 2015. Powell's comments are
likely to add more dimension and texture to the institution's
monetary-policy strategy, as it looks to bring interest rates to a
more normal, precrisis level and delever its asset portfolio, which
became bloated to the tune of some $4.5 trillion during the height
of the 2007-09 asset-backed fueled blowup.
Data and key events ahead for the week (key market events in
bold)
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2018 09:57 ET (13:57 GMT)
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