Rosengren Says Fed Should Raise Rates Four Times in 2017 -- Update
March 29 2017 - 1:55PM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said
Wednesday he wants the U.S. central bank to raise rates more
aggressively than the consensus outlook of his colleagues, provided
the economy performs as he expects it to.
"I view four increases this year as fully consistent with
comments from [Federal Open Market Committee] participants stating
that the path of normalizing rates will be gradual," Mr. Rosengren
said in a speech to the Boston Economic Club. That compares with
the three rate increases recently penciled in by Fed officials.
The Fed's rate-setting FOMC earlier this month raised its
short-term interest rate target to a range of 0.75% to 1% and
signaled around two more rate rises are likely for the remainder of
2017, indicating three increases for the year.
"Looking ahead over the course of this year, I believe it is
likely to be appropriate for the FOMC to raise rates at a more
regular -- though still gradual -- pace," Mr. Rosengren said.
"My own view is that an increase at every other FOMC meeting
over the course of this year could and should be the committee's
default, unless economic data come in inconsistent with forecasts,"
the central banker said. "This would still be a fully
data-dependent approach, not a preset path, as it would hinge on
the incoming data -- but the base case would be four tightenings,
reflecting the strength of the economy that I believe justifies
more regular normalization of interest rates."
Mr. Rosengren, once a skeptic of the need to raise rates when
inflation is low, has for some time been a supporter of boosting
borrowing costs. He has expressed concerns about heated conditions
in the commercial real-estate sector and has argued that raising
rates now will help keep the economy in balance and allow the
expansion to go on for longer.
Some of Mr. Rosengren's colleagues haven't expressed the same
appetite for boosting borrowing costs. Even as the economy
continues to perform well, uncertainty hangs over the outlook, in
part fueled by unknowns about government taxation, spending and
regulations.
In a CNBC interview Tuesday, the influential vice chairman of
the Fed, Stanley Fischer, said the central bank's forecast for two
more rate increases this year "seems to be about right, that is to
say, it's my forecast as well."
"I think the risks are more or less balanced," meaning it is
equally possible officials could deliver more or less than the
current outlook, Mr. Fischer said.
In his speech, Mr. Rosengren was upbeat about the economy and
mindful that overheating could be a risk if it is left on the
current path.
"Conditions do not require the FOMC to rush policy actions," Mr.
Rosengren said. Still, "it seems likely that the economy will have
achieved both elements of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate by the
end of this year -- full employment and stable prices."
That said, "it is important to avoid creating an over-hot
economy that could require a more rapid tightening of monetary
policy -- which would place at risk the economic improvements seen
to date."
Fielding questions from the audience, Mr. Rosengren said a
combination of the Fed's tightening efforts plus the gradually
rising inflation that private forecasters anticipate should
influence long-term interest rates.
"I'll be very surprised if long rates don't start responding" to
those factors, he said. "My expectation is over time we'll actually
see that the 10-year rate will be higher than it is right now."
The regional Fed president also said he isn't worried about a
slowdown in bank lending, which is expected when the Fed raises
rates. For example, "we do expect things like mortgage applications
to slow down," Mr. Rosengren said. "It's not a slowdown that's
rapid enough where I'm all that concerned," he said of bank
lending.
Mr. Rosengren also discussed coming changes in top Fed
positions, including what soon will be three open spots on the
seven-seat board of governors for President Donald Trump to
fill.
"I expect that Federal Reserve policy will remain relatively
consistent, but we'll see depending on who actually gets
appointed," Mr. Rosengren said.
Jon Kamp contributed this article.
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 29, 2017 13:40 ET (17:40 GMT)
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