Gasoline, diesel, natural gas and propane continue to be the
primary fuel and technology choices for America’s commercial
trucks, transit and school buses, with the population of advanced
technology near-zero emissions diesels increasing 4% over 2022,
according to the Engine Technology Forum (ETF).
ETF’s analysis of S&P Global Mobility TIPNet data of US
Commercial Vehicles in Operation as of December 2023*, found that
99.9% of the nation’s commercial vehicles, from small white
box delivery trucks on up to the largest 18 wheelers, are powered
by internal combustion engines. Diesel makes up the largest share
at 76%, followed by gasoline at 22%, then natural gas and propane.
Emerging zero-emissions technologies, including battery electric
and fuel cell electric vehicles, presently make up a small fraction
of the commercial vehicle fleet. In this analysis, the largest
portions of vehicles powered by electricity in the studied
population are transit buses (7.8% EV), followed by school buses
(0.4% EV). Electric-powered commercial trucks (Class 3-8) account
for over 20,000 units, while school buses powered by battery
electric technology account for about 2,000 units.
As of December 2023, 61% of all commercial diesel trucks on the
road were 2010 and newer model year (2010 + MY) vehicles. That’s a
4% increase from 2022. They’re equipped with the latest emissions
controls to help them deliver near-zero emissions. California has
the fastest growing population of advanced technology diesel
vehicles in operation with a 13.3% increase compared to 2022.“As
more of the nation’s trucking fleet adopts the latest generation of
advanced diesel and natural gas technology, communities are
experiencing cleaner air and lower greenhouse gas emissions. And
truckers save on their fuel expenses, too. Previous research showed
the significant climate, fuel savings, and clean air impacts in the
US of the newer generation (2010 and later model year) of advanced
diesel in Class 3-8 heavy-duty trucks. From 2010 through 2030, this
generation of diesels will save approximately 1.3 billion tons of
carbon dioxide emissions, 130 billion gallons of fuel, yield a
cumulative savings of 1 million tons of particulate matter and 18
million tons of nitrogen oxide emissions. These benefits will be
even greater once new emission regulations are implemented for new
vehicles starting in 2027,” said Allen Schaeffer, Executive
Director of the Engine Technology Forum, a not-for-profit
educational association.
“While traditional petroleum-based fuels still dominate the
vehicle sectors, the role of renewable fuels is growing. It’s
especially important given the opportunity to deliver significant
carbon and other emissions reductions across millions of internal
combustion vehicles in operation,” says Schaeffer.
In 2023, more than 2.8 billion gallons of renewable diesel and
1.9 billion gallons of biodiesel, were consumed. Both are low
carbon fuels. Renewable diesel fuel production capacity could reach
5.9 billion gal/y, by the end of 2025.
According to the Transport Project, more than 79% of the natural
gas (CNG) used in transportation in 2023 was renewable natural gas
(RNG). In California, according to data from the California Air
Resources Board, Bio-CNG/RNG achieved an annual average carbon
intensity score of -126.42 grams of CO2 equivalent /Mega Joule
(gCO2e/MJ) for 2023, which is the lowest carbon intensity score of
any clean fuel option.“As the timing and degree of transition to
alternative vehicles and fuels remains in flux, the importance of
continued investment in new technology ICE vehicles is vital to
ensure continued progress on clean air and climate commitments.
Replacing older vehicles with new advanced ICE technology delivers
substantial benefits. It would take more than 60 of the current
generation diesels to equal the emissions of a single heavy-duty
diesel truck built in the 1990’s,” says Schaeffer.
Vehicles fueled by electricity – battery electric or fuel cell –
make up 0.1% of the commercial truck population. Of the nation’s
largest trucks, Class 8, tractor-trailer size, 97% are powered by
diesel. For all diesel trucks Class 3-8, 61% of these are equipped
with the newest, most advanced, diesel technology that achieves
near zero tailpipe emissions standards established by the U.S
Environmental Protection Agency.
California leads all states in the adoption of EV technology in
commercial trucks, non-school buses, (transit, inter-city buses)
and school buses. For commercial trucks alone, California accounts
for more than 25% of all EV commercial trucks in operation,
followed by Pennsylvania, Washington, New York, and Massachusetts.
With 82% of class 8 diesel trucks in operation now being advanced
generation (2010 +MY) technology, Indiana leads the nation for
diesel trucks, followed by the District of Columbia (72.8%),
Pennsylvania (72.5%), Illinois (68.9%) and Oklahoma (68,8%). (The
full ranking of states can be found at www.enginetechforum.org)
“About two-thirds of all commercial trucks in operation are
equipped with advanced emissions control equipment at this point,
so we can see their contribution to substantial progress toward key
state’s clean air and climate goals, and the opportunity to do more
with accelerating fleet turnover. Communities realize almost
immediate clean air benefits. Greenhouse gas emission reductions
benefit everyone. And truck owners save some fuel money. It’s a
win-win situation,” says Schaeffer.
Continued improvements for internal combustion engines (ICE) in
the form of even nearer-to-zero emissions and lower fuel
consumption are on the horizon. Engine and vehicle manufacturers
are working toward meeting the most recent emissions regulations
for both light and heavy- duty vehicles. Advanced diesel trucks are
expected to deliver the overwhelming majority of clean air and
greenhouse gas reduction benefits in the near term while zero
emission vehicles are expected to play a greater role in the later
years of phase 3 rule implementation 2027-2032.
“While battery electric and hydrogen options develop, along with
their fueling networks, internal combustion engines are expected to
dominate our goods movement and public transport sectors for
decades to come. That’s why continued innovation, having the newest
generation of these vehicles in place, and expanding our use of
renewable fuels will ensure continued progress as well as lower
burden of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the future,” says
Schaeffer.
Additional Findings
- The newest
generation advanced diesel trucks (2010 + MY) outnumber electric
trucks (any model year) 367:1
- For every electric
Class 8 truck in operation (any model year), there are 240 new
generation (2010+MY) advanced technology diesel trucks
- For every electric
transit bus in operation (any model year) there are more than 5 new
generation (2010+MY) advanced technology diesel buses
- For every electric
school bus in operation (any model year) there are 155 new
generation (2010+MY) advanced technology diesel buses
Note: *S&P Global Mobility TIPNet Commercial data is based
on snapshot taken Dec. 31, 2023
Additional Resource: View our related graphic
at
https://assets.speakcdn.com/assets/2888/which_fuels_and_technologies_power_americas_trucks_and_buses.png
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About the Engine Technology Forum
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Forum is dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of the
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Jessica Puchala
Engine Technology Forum
(202) 480-6441
jpuchala@enginetechforum.org