First-of-its-kind analysis finds provinces should stop expanding
gas infrastructure and invest in electrification to ensure building
heating remains reliable and affordable in the transition to clean
energy.
OTTAWA,
ON, June 13, 2024 /CNW/ - New research
published today by the Canadian Climate Institute finds that a
system-wide shift from gas to electric heat is the lowest-cost path
through the clean energy transition. The report, Heat Exchange:
How today's policy choices will drive or delay Canada's transition to clean, reliable
heat, concludes that provincial government action will be
necessary to protect reliability and avoid high costs for consumers
as the energy transition accelerates.
Expanding gas infrastructure to heat
buildings today is like investing in a chain of video rental stores
15 years ago
The report finds that changing the energy mix for building heat
in both homes and businesses—and changing energy
infrastructure to support the shift from gas to electricity—will be
necessary to reduce emissions from buildings and meet Canada's climate goals while also minimizing
costs. If investment in the gas network continues to grow and gas
connections continue to be the default for new buildings, then
governments, shareholders, and remaining gas consumers could find
themselves on the hook for the costs of overbuilt and underused gas
infrastructure, as more people switch to cleaner options.
Heat Exchange presents a case for provinces taking a new
approach in planning and regulating electric and gas utility
infrastructure to better protect the public interest, now and in
the future.
FACTS FROM HEAT
EXCHANGE
- In all provinces and scenarios the Climate Institute examined,
the lowest-cost pathway to net zero by 2050 for the economy results
in electricity becoming the dominant energy supply for building
heat.
- Reaching net zero emissions in residential, commercial and
institutional buildings means substantial declines in gas use in
every province—in places like Ontario, gas usage drops between 89 to 98 per
cent from today's levels. In Alberta, demand drops between 70 and 87 per
cent.
- Today, more than five million homes in Canada (34 per cent) already heat with
electricity, mostly baseboards. To meet net zero, 99 per cent of
home heating in 2050 is projected to be entirely or mostly powered
by electricity, including, in some cases, heat pumps backed up by
gas in a hybrid system.
- Our research found that a cost-effective energy transition in
buildings will mean heat pumps are used to heat the vast majority
of homes by 2050. While scarce low-carbon gases like biomethane and
hydrogen will likely see some use in industrial buildings,they are
expected to play only a marginal role in heating commercial and
residential buildings.
QUOTES
"Protecting consumers in the energy transition means making
electricity the default in new buildings in most cases, instead of
gas. While the infrastructure we're building today will be with us
for 40 to 60 years, this research shows that achieving climate
goals will mean a shrinking role for gas well before then. A
manageable transition that protects affordable and reliable
building heating requires provinces to stop expanding gas networks
now, and start planning for the future."
— SACHI GIBSON, RESEARCH DIRECTOR,
MITIGATION
"Expanding gas infrastructure to heat buildings today would be
like investing heavily in a chain of video rental stores 15 years
ago. Energy systems need to plan for the reality that is arriving
on our doorstep. The smart approach to protect consumers and ensure
affordable, reliable energy in the future is to grow the
electricity system—not lock in more dependence on gas."
— JASON DION, SENIOR RESEARCH
DIRECTOR
"Right now, regulators make choices about infrastructure that
will affect ratepayers' costs for decades—but those decisions are
not required to factor in climate goals, including reaching net
zero emissions. That big disconnect could drive up energy bills in
the decades ahead. Provinces need to make forward-looking decisions
about energy system investments, and they need to make plans and
policies today to protect consumers in the economy-wide energy
transition that's underway."
— KATE HARLAND, RESEARCH LEAD,
MITIGATION
RESOURCES
Report│Heat Exchange: How today's policy choices will
drive or delay Canada's transition
to clean, reliable heat
Report│Heat Pumps Pay Off: Unlocking lower cost heating
and cooling in Canada
(September 2023)
Case studies│ Heat Pumps Are Hot in the Maritimes
(April 2023), Hybrid Heat in
Quebec (April 2023), St Laurent Denied (April 2023)
Blog│Change is in the pipeline: will expanding gas
networks leave ratepayers on the hook? (March 2024)
SOURCE Canadian Climate Institute