By Tom Fairless
FRANKFURT -- European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hopes
to end his eight-year term with a bang. Some fear it could conclude
with a fizzle.
In the run-up to his departure on Oct. 31, the central banker
has signaled plans for a large, final burst of monetary stimulus to
prop up a eurozone economy that is tottering under the pressure of
trade tensions.
But critical voices are multiplying, including a growing number
from the ECB's own 25-member rate-setting committee.
Mr. Draghi's critics say the eurozone economy isn't weak enough
to warrant aggressive new measures just a year after the ECB began
phasing out its EUR2.6-trillion ($2.686 trillion) bond-buying
program. Borrowing costs for households, businesses and governments
are so low, they argue, that easier money will have little effect.
The bank's key interest rate is already minus 0.4%.
They also say the measures Mr. Draghi has flagged -- further
interest-rates cuts and a new bond-buying program, known as
quantitative easing, or QE -- risk leaving the bank with virtually
no ammunition if the economy sinks further, while also exacerbating
the risk of asset bubbles and damage to the region's banks. Several
eurozone governments moved in recent months to rein in excess
lending, including France.
"The ECB's monetary policy is doing its duty, but it can't do
everything, and it certainly can't perform miracles," Bank of
France Gov. François Villeroy de Galhau said in a recent interview
with Swiss media.
The French banker has joined traditional hawks in Germany and
other northern European countries in questioning Mr. Draghi's bold
stimulus plans, especially QE.
"With a second asset-purchase program, the ECB will continue
disturbing markets, and prices do not reflect the risk anymore,"
said Jürgen Stark, the ECB's former chief economist. "All this is
not thought through, just to be activist and show we are not at the
end of our toolbox."
Those objections raise the prospect of a rare defeat at
Thursday's ECB meeting for Mr. Draghi, whose bold new policies held
together the fractious currency union during the sovereign-debt
crisis. Still, the Italian, who has just two policy meetings left,
can usually count on support from a majority of dovish council
members, and some skeptics don't have a vote at this week's
meeting, including Mr. Villeroy de Galhau.
Investors are pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a 0.2
percentage-point rate cut, as well as a program to buy about EUR30
billion to EUR40 billion of sovereign debt a month. As a
compromise, Mr. Draghi could restart the bond-buying program, but
at a slower pace, leaving its current restrictions in place.
He could also leave the decision to restart bond buying to
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde,
who is set to take the ECB presidency on Nov. 1. Ms. Lagarde said
last week that she would reassess the costs and benefits of the
ECB's controversial policy tools.
Mr. Draghi's defenders say that it is easier to combat a
downturn before it has taken root than to reverse it afterward. New
factory orders in Germany fell sharply in July, while Italy's
economy has flatlined.
"If you don't do anything then you don't have any side effects,
but you don't have any impact on the economy, either," Olli Rehn,
head of Finland's central bank and a member of the ECB's
rate-setting committee, said in a recent interview. He called on
the ECB to launch a broad package of stimulus measures, including
substantial new bond purchases.
The fresh uncertainty over ECB policy underscores the political
and economic challenges facing central bankers in responding to the
global slowdown that has followed the China-U.S. trade war.
The Federal Reserve is cutting rates. Unlike the ECB, however,
the Fed raised interest rates during the expansion, giving it more
ammunition to fight a downturn.
The eurozone is especially reliant on loose monetary policy, as
it is highly dependent on trade for growth. Germany accounts for
the same share of world exports as the U.S. with just a quarter of
the population. The weakening of the euro in response to easy money
has given exporters a much-needed boost.
At the same time, eurozone governments have been unwilling or
unable to loosen purse strings to stave off a slowdown.
The recovery that Mr. Draghi's bold policies helped engineer is
now at risk, with the region's economy growing at an annualized
pace of just 0.8% in the second quarter and its manufacturing
sector in recession.
However, the services sector, which accounts for two-thirds of
eurozone output, is resilient, and unemployment is at an 11-year
low.
"I find myself surprisingly skeptical, probably for the first
time," Stefan Gerlach, a former deputy governor of Ireland's
central bank, said in an interview. "Draghi does not seem to
hesitate to bind the hands of his successor. I'm not sure the
economy needs it. I'm not sure it achieves much. Some of the
arguments the hawks are making sound sensible."
As part of a new bond-buying program, Mr. Draghi has suggested
that the ECB could loosen self-imposed rules aimed at ensuring it
doesn't dominate debt markets.
That would trigger opposition in Germany. German Finance
Minister Olaf Scholz said last month that he would look into
outlawing negative interest rates for retail depositors.
The ECB might also introduce measures to protect eurozone banks
against even more negative interest rates. Banks bear the brunt of
the policies since they need to keep money on deposit with the
central bank, in essence paying the ECB to store their money.
Meanwhile, banks have been unable to pass those costs fully on to
depositors, who often still receive 0% on savings accounts. The ECB
might provide banks some relief by exempting some bank deposits
with the ECB from negative rates.
"We are at the end of the efficiency of monetary policy,"
France's finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, said in an interview.
"The risks that we are now facing are not related to financial
stability [but] how to fuel growth. The response is not only in the
hands of the ECB."
With political pressure rising on central bankers around the
world, Mr. Draghi may want to leave Ms. Lagarde with room to
maneuver.
"The next ECB president will really need to come up with a game
plan to deal with the next downturn," said Elga Bartsch, head of
macro research at BlackRock. "Just turning around and saying,
'Sorry, we are out of policy options,' is not going to serve the
independence of central banks well."
Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 10, 2019 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.