Earnings Preview: Triumph Group Inc. - Analyst Blog
October 27 2011 - 10:00AM
Zacks
Triumph Group Inc.
(TGI) will report its second-quarter 2012 earnings on Monday,
October 31, 2011, after the market closes.
The current Zacks Consensus
Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $1.04, representing an
annualized growth of 22.25%.
With respect to earnings surprises
over the trailing four quarters, TGI outperformed the Zacks
Consensus Estimate in three quarters and was in line in one;
leading to an average earnings surprise of 11.60%. The average
earnings surprise implies that the company outperformed the Zacks
Consensus Estimate by the same magnitude over the last four
quarters.
First Quarter 2012
Highlights
On July 28, 2011, Triumph Group
reported encouraging results for the first quarter of fiscal 2012.
Excluding the Vought acquisition expense, first-quarter earnings
per diluted share came in at $1.00, showing an improvement from 66
cents in the year-ago comparable quarter. Results also surpassed
the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents.
The improvement was attributable to
increased year-over-year revenue growth, supported by operating
income and margin expansion across all business segments.
Significant cash flow generated during the quarter as well as
strong balance sheet and backlog fuelled the growth.
In the first quarter of 2012, net
sales shot up 108% year over year to $845.1 million, with organic
growth reaching roughly 13%.
Agreement of Estimate
Revisions
In the last 30 days, one analyst
increased the company’s EPS estimate, while one analyst decreased
the estimate for the second quarter. One analyst each decreased
their estimates for fiscal 2012 and 2013.
Magnitude of Estimate
Revisions
Estimates over the last 30 days
remained intact at $1.04 per share for the second quarter of 2012,
representing a year-over-year growth of 22.25%.
Estimate for fiscal 2012 remained
same at $4.39 over the last 30 days while that for fiscal 2013
decreased marginally from $4.98 to $4.97. These estimates
represented a year-over-year growth of 29.42% for 2012 and 13.24%
for 2013.
Our Take
Triumph Group is likely to post
impressive results in the second quarter of 2012 based on the
company’s continued focus on execution and cost control programs.
Moreover, the improving air transport industry indicates a
promising demand scenario, for the company’s products, equipments
and methods of repair and overhaul services; thereby improving
results.
Based in Wayne, Pennsylvania,
Triumph Group offers a variety of products and services to the
aerospace industry. The company serves commercial and regional
airlines, air cargo carriers, as well as OEMs of commercial,
regional, business and military aircrafts. It faces stiff
competition from its peers, such as AAR Corp.
(AIR) and Goodrich Corp.
(GR).
We currently maintain a long-term
Neutral recommendation on the stock. Triumph Group has a Zacks # 4
Rank, which translates into a short-term Sell rating (1-3
months).
AAR CORP (AIR): Free Stock Analysis Report
GOODRICH CORP (GR): Free Stock Analysis Report
TRIUMPH GRP INC (TGI): Free Stock Analysis Report
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