Earnings Preview: Comcast Corp. - Analyst Blog
July 30 2012 - 8:15AM
Zacks
Comcast Corp.
(CMCSA) is slated to release its second quarter 2012 results on
Wednesday, August 1, 2012, before the opening bell. The current
Zacks Consensus Estimate for the second quarter is pegged at 48
cents per share, representing an annualized growth of 13.62%.
With respect to earnings surprises,
Comcast has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three out
of the trailing four quarters. The average earnings surprise was a
positive 1%.
First Quarter
Recap
On May 2, 2012, Comcast reported
its first quarter 2012 financial results. GAAP net income for the
first quarter of 2012 was $1,224 million or 45 cents per share
compared with a net income of $943 million or 34 cents per share in
the prior-year quarter. Quarterly EPS of 45 cents surpassed the
Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents. Total revenue in the first
quarter of 2012 came in at $14,878 million, up 9.6 % year over year
and well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14,405 million.
Operating margin in the first
quarter of 2012 was 18.5% compared with 18.3% in the prior-year
quarter. During the reported quarter, Comcast repurchased 25.9
million common share for $750million and paid dividends worth $304
million.
Agreement of Estimate
Revisions
In the last 30 days, out of the 18
analysts covering the stock, two analysts decreased the EPS
estimate for the second quarter of 2012 while one analyst increased
the same. Similarly, for the third quarter of fiscal 2012, out of
the 17 analysts covering the stock, only one analyst slashed the
EPS estimate.
For fiscal 2012, in the last 30
days, out of the 21 analysts covering the stock, three analysts
reduced the EPS estimate but two analysts raised the same.
Likewise, for fiscal 2013, out of the 20 analysts covering the
stock, one analyst increased the EPS estimates while two moved in
the opposite direction.
Magnitude of Estimate
Revisions
For the second and third quarter of
2012, during the last 30 days, the current Zacks Consensus Estimate
was in line with the previous estimate of 48 cents and 45 cents,
respectively. Similarly, for fiscal 2012 and 2013, the current
Zacks Consensus Estimate was at par with the earlier estimate of
$1.90 and $2.22, respectively.
Earning
Surprises
In the previous quarter, Comcast
reported EPS of 45 cents, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate
by 3 cents. The current Zacks Consensus Estimates for the ongoing
quarter and the upcoming quarter contain downside potential of
6.25% and 2.22%, respectively (essentially a proxy for future
earning surprises). Similarly, for fiscal 2012 and 2013, the Zacks
Consensus Estimate contains downside risk of 1.05% and 0.45%,
respectively.
Our
Recommendation
We believe that continuous share
repurchase plan, better churn rate and innovative product offering
strategies will drive the stock upward going forward. Moreover,
Comcast is also aggressively deploying the DOCSIS 3.0 (also called
Wideband) technology to upgrade its existing customers to
high-speed network together with all digital networks.
However, higher operating expenses
coupled with stiff competition from formidable rivals like
Time Warner Cable (TWC) and other satellite
operators like DIRECTV (DTV) and DISH
Network Corporation (DISH) will affect profitability going
forward. Moreover, huge debt, higher operating expense coupled with
continuous loss of video subscribers will affect its bottom-line
growth. We, thus, maintain our long-term Neutral recommendation on
Comcast.
Currently, Comcast has a Zacks #3
Rank, implying a short-term Hold rating on the stock.
COMCAST CORP A (CMCSA): Free Stock Analysis Report
DISH NETWORK CP (DISH): Free Stock Analysis Report
DIRECTV (DTV): Free Stock Analysis Report
TIME WARNER CAB (TWC): Free Stock Analysis Report
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