Conceptus Lowers 2011 Guidance - Analyst Blog
December 09 2011 - 5:30AM
Zacks
Stricken by increased softness in
procedure volumes, especially in the European market, combined with
weaker US sales growth in November, Conceptus Inc.
(CPTS) has lowered its revenue forecast for fiscal 2011. The
company lowered its revenue guidance to $126–$128 million from the
previous level of $132–$136 million. The current revenue forecast
is well below the 2010 level of $141 million.
Further, the company decided to
terminate its existing credit facility and discontinue paying
commitment fees as it is not confident about meeting certain
financial commitments. At the end of September 2011, cash, cash
equivalents and short-term investments were $99.8 million compared
with $77.8 million at the end of fiscal 2010. In the third quarter
of 2011, the company generated $14.4 million in cash from
operations. Additionally, it expects to use its $99.8 million cash
in hand to repurchase $86.25 million of 2.25% Convertible Senior
Notes (due 2027) in February 2012.
In separate news, Conceptus
announced that Keith Grossman will replace Sieczkarek as the
President and Chief Executive Officer of the company. Grossman
previously was the managing director of private equity firm
TPG.
Third quarter
numbers
Revenues in the last reported
quarter declined 2.4% year over year to $33.1 million. The decline
was primarily attributed to macroeconomic headwinds, which in turn
resulted in persistent unemployment, challenging insurance trends
with loss of insurance coverage and competitive market.
Domestic sales of Essure plunged
5.5% year over year but climbed 4% sequentially to $25.8 million in
the quarter. International sales rose 11.5% on a year-over-year
basis to $6.6 million, mainly attributed to favorable currency
exchange and higher average selling prices arising from channel
mix. However, international sales declined 18.9% sequentially due
to seasonality across Europe.
Looking Ahead
During the third quarter earnings
call, management noted that the domestic top-line performance
continued to remain affected by the macroeconomic pressures
including high unemployment rates that hampered the market for
non-urgent procedures like Essure.
Moreover, OB/GYN office visits
declined leading to soft growth in the trans-cervical sterilization
market. Moreover, Conceptus is facing severe challenges as
Hologic’s (HOLX) Adiana, which is direct
competitor of Essure, is being trialed by many physicians. This has
become a real concern for Conceptus as it lacks the resource to
re-educate existing customers on the efficacy of Essure.
We are concerned about the
penetration of Adiana in the market, which has increasingly
cannibalized Conceptus’ market share. Although Conceptus is
increasing its sales force and undertaking several initiatives to
recapture market share, the outcome remains unimpressive as growth
in the hysteroscopic sterilization market has been decelerating for
three consecutive quarters. This perhaps has induced the company to
reduce its outlook. We also believe that the current sovereign debt
crisis in some European countries along with austerity measures
will further deteriorate the already gloomy situation.
Presently, Conceptus retains a
short-term Zacks #3 (Hold) which also corresponds to our long-term
‘Neutral’ recommendation on the stock.
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