Demand for NVIDIA’s Blackwell Platform Expected to Boost TSMC’s CoWoS Total Capacity by Over 150% in 2024, Says TrendForce
May 03 2024 - 9:00AM
Business Wire
NVIDIA’s next-gen Blackwell platform, which includes B-series
GPUs and integrates NVIDIA’s own Grace Arm CPU in models such as
the GB200, represents a significant development. TrendForce points
out that the GB200 and its predecessor, the GH200, both feature a
combined CPU+GPU solution, primarily equipped with the NVIDIA Grace
CPU and H200 GPU. However, the GH200 accounted for only
approximately 5% of NVIDIA’s high-end GPU shipments. The supply
chain has high expectations for the GB200, with projections
suggesting that its shipments could exceed millions of units by
2025, potentially making up nearly 40 to 50% of NVIDIA’s high-end
GPU market.
Although NVIDIA plans to launch products such as the GB200 and
B100 in the second half of this year, upstream wafer packaging will
need to adopt more complex and high-precision CoWoS-L technology,
making the validation and testing process time-consuming.
Additionally, more time will be required to optimize the B-series
for AI server systems in aspects such as network communication and
cooling performance. It is anticipated that the GB200 and B100
products will not see significant production volumes until 4Q24 or
1Q25.
The inclusion of the GB200, B100, and B200 in NVIDIA’s B-series
will boost demand for CoWoS capacity, leading TSMC to raise its
total CoWoS capacity needs for 2024. The estimated monthly capacity
by the end of the year is expected to reach nearly 40K—a staggering
150% year-over-year increase. By 2025, the planned total capacity
could nearly double, with NVIDIA's demand expected to make up more
than half of this capacity.
Other suppliers, such as Amkor and Intel, currently focus on
CoWoS-S technology and are primarily targeting NVIDIA’s H-series.
With technological breakthroughs expected to be challenging in the
short term, expansion plans remain conservative unless these
suppliers can secure additional orders beyond NVIDIA, such as
self-developed ASIC chips by CSPs, which might lead to a more
aggressive expansion strategy.
NVIDIA and AMD’s AI development set to propel HBM3e into
mainstream market dominance by the second half of the year
TrendForce has identified three major HBM trends for NVIDIA and
AMD’s primary GPU products and their planned specifications beyond
2024: Firstly, the transition from HBM3 to HBM3e is anticipated.
NVIDIA is expected to start scaling up shipments of the H200
equipped with HBM3e in the second half of 2024, replacing the H100
as the mainstream. Following this, other models such as the GB200
and B100 will also adopt HBM3e. Meanwhile, AMD plans to launch the
new MI350 by the end of the year and may introduce interim models
like the MI32x in the meantime to compete with the H200, with both
utilizing HBM3e.
Secondly, there will be a continued expansion in HBM capacity to
boost the overall computational efficiency and system bandwidth of
AI servers. The market currently predominantly uses the NVIDIA H100
with 80GB of HBM, which is expected to increase to between 192GB
and 288GB by the end of 2024. AMD’s new GPUs, starting from the
MI300A’s 128GB, will also see increases, reaching up to 288GB.
Thirdly, the lineup of GPUs equipped with HBM3e will evolve from
8Hi configurations to 12Hi configurations. NVIDIA’s B100 and GB200
currently feature 8Hi HBM3e with a capacity of 192GB, and by 2025,
the B200 model is planned to be equipped with 12Hi HBM3e, achieving
288GB. AMD’s upcoming MI350, to be launched by the end of this
year, and the MI375 series, expected in 2025, are both anticipated
to come with 12Hi HBM3e, also reaching 288GB.
For further details of this press release, including the
accompanying tables and figures, please visit:
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20240416-12119.html
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest
tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at
https://www.trendforce.com/news/
About TrendForce (www.trendforce.com)
TrendForce is a global provider of the latest development,
insight, and analysis of the technology industry. Having served
businesses for over a decade, the company has built up a strong
membership base of 500,000 subscribers. TrendForce has established
a reputation as an organization that offers insightful and accurate
analysis of the technology industry through five major research
departments: Semiconductor Research, Display Research,
Optoelectronics Research, Green Energy Research, and ICT
Applications Research. Founded in Taipei, Taiwan in 2000,
TrendForce has extended its presence in China since 2004 with
offices in Shenzhen and Beijing.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240503005694/en/
Ms. Esther Feng Tel: +886-2-8978-6488 ext. 667
estherfeng@trendforce.com Ms. Pinchun Chou Tel: +886-2-8978-6488
ext.669 pinchunchou@trendforce.com