Picking the right stock is never easy, especially in a difficult
and volatile market. There are thousands of stocks to choose from
and many investors eventually end up boiling the ocean.
The U.S. economy continues to be cramped by a spate of headwinds
including a still unstable job market, high debt, a soft housing
sector and last but surely not the least, the European sovereign
debt contagion, which have hit industries across the board. The
recent EU summit did not bring out any concrete solution to staunch
the debt crisis which began in Greece in 2009.
The healthcare sector, traditionally revered as a safe haven for
investors and one of the most preferred areas to take cover in the
midst of market volatility, has been somewhat proved not immune to
the global economic tumult as several leading players looked to be
out of favor, making many investors skittish about these
stocks.
Yet, year-to-date, the health care sector has outperformed the
S&P 500 (up 8.35% versus a 1.3% loss for the S&P 500). So,
where are we heading in 2012?
Patchy Year but Better Days Ahead
Like 2010, this year proved to be challenging for MedTech stocks
given the exigent economic conditions and a precarious healthcare
environment. The industry is hamstrung by several issues, including
pricing concerns, hospital admission and procedural volume
pressures, uncertainty surrounding healthcare reform, Medicare
reimbursement issues (including concerns over the new pre-payment
review program) and regulatory overhang (overhaul in the device
approval process), which have left many investors scratching their
heads.
With fewer patients going under the knife accompanied by
concerns of overuse of devices, companies in cardiovascular and
orthopedic domain had gone through a rough patch in 2011.
Yet, the MedTech industry weathered the economic vortex better
than many others and is emerging as an important contributor to
economic recovery. Although the sector is still weighed down by the
macro mayhem, the industry is expected to fare relatively better
next year thanks to several attractive growth opportunities and
healthy tailwinds (includes improving hospital spending, emerging
markets and pent-up demand).
Strike While the Iron is Hot?
Given the industry headwinds, many stocks in the MedTech
universe are trading close to their 52-week low and under the
analysts’ median price target. Some of the stocks are also trading
below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Many of them have
lost a third of their valuation this year.
The pullback bestows an entry point for investors to grab some
quality stocks in this sector with attractive prospects that augur
well for long-term growth. As Peter Lynch said, “I've found
that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some
point in the future you will be happy."
Which Stocks to Choose?
As we all brace ourselves for 2012, here’s some food for thought
on picking value MedTech stocks for the new year. Going into 2012,
we advocate companies providing life-sustaining products and
procedures, given their healthy recurring revenue stream.
Further, investors should look for stocks with strong earnings
quality, healthy growth trajectory, and liquidity profiles as they
appear attractive considering their ability to leverage strong
balance sheet and cash flows in maximizing shareholder value in
form of dividends and share repurchases or use them for value
acquisitions.
MedTech Companies with vast product range/healthy pipeline and
strong infrastructure are also better poised for improved returns.
Moreover, companies focusing on more judicious R&D investment,
expansion into new markets and cost-saving through restructuring
are better placed for 2012.
Moreover, investors could also scoop up low-beta stocks (beta
less than 1) in the current rickety market environment. Companies
with low beta are less volatile than the overall market and hence
are considered defensive stocks with low risk. Moreover, stocks
with healthy dividend yields offer a cushion against market
volatility.
Top Picks for 2012
St. Jude Medical (STJ): It is
better placed among the top-tier, pure play medical devices stocks
in the cardiovascular arena. The company has a number of levers to
pull and represents a good bet for long-term investors. St. Jude is
consistently producing positive earnings surprises and healthy
revenue growth and is poised for growth on the back of strong
cadence of new products (including the quadripolar pacing
system).
Boston Scientific (BSX): The
numero uno in the drug eluting stent (“DES”) market. The
earlier-than-expected recent approval of the next-generation DES
product Promus Element coupled with a new line of ICDs better
places the company for 2012. Moreover, Boston Scientific is
expanding its footprint in the emerging markets for growth and
maintains a positive earnings surprise streak.
Medtronic (MDT): It is the largest medical
devices company on the planet. Despite weaknesses in its key ICD
and spinal implants businesses, we like the company’s efforts to
augment/diversify its product range, expand into emerging markets
for growth, strong cash and healthy dividend yield. Besides, the
new MRI SureScan pacemaker and Protects ICDs should offer support
to its core CRDM segment.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): Robotic surgery is
another area which appears to be better placed for growth in 2012
and Intuitive clearly leads the pack with its state-of-the-art
technology. Intuitive enjoys a virtual monopoly in robotic surgery
and continues to deliver forecast-topping earnings. Its sales are
growing at a torrid pace buoyed by the da Vinci surgical
system.
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO): The leading,
diversified scientific instrument maker has been successful in
expanding operating margins over the past few quarters on the back
of operational efficiency and cost discipline. It has strong
international exposure and is focusing on acquisitions and emerging
market for growth.
ZOLL Medical (ZOLL): Another good pick is
resuscitation devices-maker ZOLL Medical. It is a leading player in
the global market for external defibrillators, and its LifeVest
wearable defibrillator business continues to grow at a healthy
quarterly run rate.
Stryker (SYK): Orthopedic remains a weak spot
in MedTech given the sustained pricing and volume pressure. While
it is still not a favourable area to invest, ortho kingpin Stryker
represents a good value proposition. The company is poised for
growth riding on its diversified business, new products,
acquisitions and recovery in capital spending by hospitals. Given
its less exposure to metal-on-metal (MoM) hip implants, Stryker is
well placed to gain share in the hip market in 2012.
BOSTON SCIENTIF (BSX): Free Stock Analysis Report
INTUITIVE SURG (ISRG): Free Stock Analysis Report
MEDTRONIC (MDT): Free Stock Analysis Report
ST JUDE MEDICAL (STJ): Free Stock Analysis Report
STRYKER CORP (SYK): Free Stock Analysis Report
THERMO FISHER (TMO): Free Stock Analysis Report
ZOLL MEDICAL CO (ZOLL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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