CHICAGO, Aug. 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Zacks.com announces
the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the
Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events
impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently
featured in the blog include: Bank of America (NYSE: BAC),
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ),
Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE) and Campbell Soup Company
(NYSE: CPB).
(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20101027/ZIRLOGO)
Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the
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Here are highlights from Monday's Analyst Blog:
Valuations Compelling, Economic Outlook Cloudy
The Earnings Picture
Second-quarter earnings season is almost over with 486 or 97.2%
of the reports in. With the exception of a handful of financials,
most notably Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), which had a
$12 billion negative swing in net
income from last year, this is another great earnings season.
The year-over-year growth rate for the S&P 500 is 12.0%, way
off the 17.6% pace those same 486 firms posted in the first
quarter. However, if you exclude the Financial sector, growth is
19.8%, actually up slightly from the 19.7% pace of the first
quarter. The 97.2% reported figure slightly understates how far we
are along in earnings season. If all the remaining firms were to
report exactly in line with expectations, we now have 98.9% of the
total earnings in. At the beginning of earnings season, growth of
9.7% was expected; 12.2% ex-Financials.
Top line results are also very strong, with 10.94%
year-over-year growth for the 486, actually up from growth of 8.73%
in the first quarter. The top line results are even more impressive
if the Financials are excluded, rising to 11.25% from the 9.45%
pace of the first quarter. Top line surprises have been almost as
good as the bottom line surprises, with a median surprise of 1.81%
and a 2.49 surprise ratio.
The revenue growth in the first half is remarkable, given only
0.4% GDP growth in the first quarter and just 1.3% in the second,
with low overall inflation. High commodity prices helped revenues
among the Energy and Materials sectors, and higher growth abroad
and currency translation effects from a weak dollar have also
helped.
For those (14) still to report, the rate of growth is expected
to be well below what we have seen already, with growth of 10.8%.
With nine sectors now done, and many more sectors with only one or
two firms left to go, use caution in interpreting the "expected
tables" at the sector level. Revenue growth for the remaining firms
is also expected to slow, rising 7.87% among those yet to report,
down from 9.05% reported in the first quarter.
Net margins have been one of the keys to earnings growth, but
cracks in the story are starting to appear. The 486 that have
reported have net margins of 9.20%, up from 9.11% a year ago.
However, that is due to the Financials, especially BAC. Excluding
Financials, next margins have come in at 8.55%, up from 7.94% a
year ago.
On an annual basis, net margins continue to march northward. In
2008, overall net margins were just 5.88%, rising to 6.40% in 2009.
They hit 8.64% in 2010 and are expected to continue climbing to
9.34% in 2011 and 9.67% in 2012. The pattern is a bit different,
particularly during the recession, if the Financials are excluded,
as margins fell from 7.78% in 2008 to 7.07% in 2009, but have
started a robust recovery and rose to 8.27% in 2010. They are
expected to rise to 8.84% in 2011 and 9.12% in 2012.
The expectations for the full year are very healthy, with total
net income for 2010 rising to $795.0
billion in 2010, up from $544.3
billion in 2009. In 2011, the total net income for the
S&P 500 should be $921.3 billion,
marking increases of 45.5% and 15.9%, respectively. The expectation
is for 2012 to have total net income passing the $1 Trillion mark to $1.008
Trillion, for growth of 9.5%. That will also put the "EPS"
for the S&P 500 over the $100
"per share" level for the first time at $106.99. That is up from $56.77 for 2009, $82.61 for 2010, and $95.74 for 2011.
In an environment where the 10 year T-note is yielding 2.06%, a
P/E of 13.7x based on 2010 and 11.8x based on 2011 earnings looks
attractive. The P/E based on 2012 earnings is 10.8x. However, the
2012 expectations have fallen significantly in recent weeks as the
economic outlook has softened. Relative to a month ago, expected
total earnings for 2012 are down by $40
billion, with $30 billion of
that decline coming from the Financial sector. This is an important
thing to watch going forward.
Estimate revisions activity is near its seasonal peak. During
the last seasonal decline in revisions activity, the ratio of
increases to cuts also declined sharply, from over 2.0 at the
height of the last earnings season to slightly below 1.0 for both
this year and next. It then rose sharply during the height of
earnings season again, but now has stated to fall. The revisions
ratios stands at 1.53 (up from 1.62 last week) for 2011 and 1.18
(down from 1.41ast week) for 2012.
The Bigger Picture
It is an open question right now if we are going to fall back
into recession later this year or early next year. I still think
the most likely case is that we muddle through with slow but
positive growth, but the odds of a recession seem to be growing.
The economic news this week was not that good. We started out the
week learning that the American Institute of Architects billing
index fell again to 45.1 from 46.3, its lowest level since
February 2010 and the fifth drop in a
row. It is a Magic 50 index where any reading below 50 means
contraction. Since non single family home construction almost
always requires an architect, this pretty much insures that we will
be seeing a renewed downturn in Commercial construction later this
year and into 2012.
Existing Home Sales came in well below expectations and were
down 3.5% from June. They were up year over year by 21.0% but that
was due to an exceptionally easy comps from last year (after the
end of the home buying tax credit). Months of supply rose to 9.4
months from 9.2. A healthy market has 6 months worth of supply and
four months was the norm during the bubble. This pretty much means
that home prices are going to continue to fall (oh and the median
price of an existing homes was down 4.4% year over year). With
existing home prices still falling, it is very hard to see any near
term rebound in New Home Construction, which is normally the
locomotive that pulls us out of recessions.
Inflation came in a bit hotter than expected at 0.5% on
headline, although the core was in line with expectations at 0.2%.
With oil prices falling again, we should see headline below core
again next month. Still it will add some ammo to the argument of
those who are against the Fed taking any more aggressive actions to
help the economy. Within the core, housing costs were a big upward
driver, with both Rent and Owners Equivalent Rent rising 0.3%, the
fastest in a very long time. Together they make up 31% of the
overall CPI. Also the Philly Fed index plunged to a -30.7, an
exceptionally poor reading, down from a positive 3.2 and one that
in the past has always signaled recession. One "sure fire"
recession signal that we have not seen yet, nor are we likely to
given the current Fed policy is an inverted yield curve (short
rates higher than long rates). On the other hand the index of
Leading Economic Indicators actually increased to 0.5% from 0.3%.
Thus overall there is not a slam dunk case either way as to if we
are headed into a recession.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, a bright spot the
week before, disappointed a bit and rose back over the key 400,000
level to 408,000. That is a level that is consistent with job
growth, but not enough to bring down the unemployment rate. The
August jobs report will probably look a lot like the July jobs
report, with about 150,000 or so private sector jobs added offset
by the loss of about 40,000 government jobs and the unemployment
rate staying about 9.1%.
The humiliation of Standard & Poor's for its recent
downgrade of T-notes continued. The yield on the 10 year actually
briefly fell below 2% for the first time since before WWII, before
ending the week at 2.06%. When a bond gets downgraded, it is
supposed to see its yield rise, not fall off a cliff. That is what
normally happens when you get a downgrade in the Corporate or Muni
bond market. Even in the Sovereign debt market, when a country like
Greece or Portugal gets downgraded, investors flee away
from the debt and interest rates rise sharply. That did not happen
here.
Instead we saw a stunning rally in the bond market and yields
plunging, along with a plunging stock market. It was not really a
big drop in the inflation expectations component of interest rates,
but a plunge in the real rate. It was the first time in history
that the 10 year real interest rate had fallen to negative
territory. In other words, people are actually paying in real terms
for the privilege of lending to the U.S. Treasury. Sure there are
lots of pundits out there who point to things like the rise in the
price of gold and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and say
we are just around the corner from high inflation or even
hyperinflation like in Zimbabwe or
the Weimar Republic. The bond market emphatically disagrees.
In time of stress, T-note are still going to be the first place
that institutions look to park money when they want to flee to a
safe place, regardless of what S&P says about how safe they
are. There are simply no other markets that are big enough to do
the job. Not the Swiss Franc, not gold, not AAA corporates. All of
them are simply too small to do the job. S&P downgraded
Japan a long time ago, and their
long term bond rates are even lower than ours are and have been
since they were downgraded. Are the Chinese going to dump their
Treasuries? NO. What would they do with the money if they did? Buy
bonds in Euros or Yen? If they did so they would have to sell
dollars and buy either Yen or Euros. That would weaken the dollar
and strengthen those currencies. That would make our exports
cheaper and imports more expensive, and thus lower our trade
deficit. That would be a very good thing for the economy. Go ahead
China, make our day and sell your
T-notes.
Does that sound to you like a crisis in confidence about the
ability of the U.S. Government to repay its debts? It sure doesn't
to me. Rather what it suggests is that economic growth is going to
be much lower than people expected. Real interest rates usually
reflect the rate of growth in the economy. What the market
really fears is not the deficit, or the accumulated debt, but that
the misguided austerity measures now underway not only here, but
across the Atlantic, are going to further slow growth.
The current debate has it all wrong, or at least is putting the
cart before the horse. If we can bring down unemployment, the
deficit will follow. The reverse is decidedly not true. Current
efforts to bring down the deficit are making unemployment worse,
not better, and will in the end undermine the objective of bringing
down the deficit. A Trillion dollars of Spending Cuts is not
going to lead to a Trillion dollars of deficit reduction. Perhaps
$500 billion worth if we are
lucky.
That is particularly true if the cuts are front end loaded and
happen while the economy is operating well below its potential.
Spending cuts when the economy is humming along will not have such
a terrible effect on the overall economy. Tax revenues rise and
fall by more than the amount of economic growth. There is a lot of
spending that kicks in automatically as the economy falls. Food
Stamps would be one example of that. When the economy is operating
near its potential, then government spending can crowd out
productive private investment. When the economy is operating far
below its potential, as it is today, then the only thing that
government spending crowds out is idleness and unemployment.
Bringing the Trade Deficit under control on the other hand would
bring down unemployment and thus the Budget deficit. That will
really require us to do two things. First see a much weaker dollar
so our goods are cheaper abroad, and foreign goods are more
expensive here. Of course, that would require other currencies get
stronger, and no government right now really wants a strong
currency. Even the Swiss have been intervening in the markets to
weaken their currency.
The second thing would be to rapidly move to the use of Natural
gas as a transportation fuel. We have lots and lots of it here and
it is cheap. The technology for running cars on NG is well
established. We already have a good distribution system for natural
gas, but not for refueling cars with it.
At the micro level, earnings and valuations provide plenty of
reason to be bullish. This is particularly true when one looks at
the prevailing level of interest rates. Currently 235 S&P 500
(47.0%) firms have dividend yields higher than the Friday yield on
the 10 year t-note (2.06%), and over two thirds (339, or 67.8%)
yield more than the five year note (0.95%). Heck, 1.05 or 21.0%
yield more than even the 30 year bond (3.39%). Keep in mind that
116 or 23.2% of the S&P 500 stocks pay no dividend at all, so
no matter how far the market falls, they will still have a 0.0%
dividend yield.
Many of those companies, such as Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL)
with its $76 billion cash hoard could
easily pay a dividend if they wanted to. Of the dividend paying
stocks, 61.2% yield more than the 10 year and 88.3% yield more than
the five year. Those sorts of numbers have not been seen since the
early 1950s. One thing is absolutely certain, the coupon payment on
those notes will never go up, while companies have been raising
their dividends at a rapid pace of late. Nearly one quarter of the
firms in the S&P 500 have raised their dividend at more than a
10% per year rate over the last five years, and those five years
include the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. Almost one
third of the dividend payers have increased their dividend by more
than 10%.
At these levels it is clear to me that the market is pricing in
not just slower growth, but an outright recession, either underway
or just about to get underway. Despite that reassurance, the
economy remains very fragile, and is thus very susceptible to any
outside shocks. There is a potential 8.5 on the Richter scale
looming in Europe's problems.
There is a very real chance that the Euro will not even exist in a
few years, or if it does, it will be a diminished version where the
common currency only applies to Germany and the
Netherlands, and perhaps France. The Greeks and the Italians would go
back to having Drachma and Lira. Getting from here to there has the
potential for enormous dislocations, and hence big damage to the
European economy.
That would inevitably spill over to the U.S. The French
President Sarkozy and the German Chancellor Merkel got together and
threw cold water on the idea of creating Eurobonds, or bonds that
were backed by all of Europe.
Instead they proposed the creation of a council of all the heads of
government for the 17 countries using the Euro that would set
national economic fiscal policies throughout Europe. This would probably require changes to
the Constitutions of every one of those countries. I just don't see
that happening.
Ultimately, one of two things is going to have to happen. Either
fiscal policy will have to be consolidated in Europe as a whole (what Merkel and Sarkozy
were suggesting), which means that the individual countries will
have to give up most of their sovereignty. Essentially Italy will have to become like Florida, and Germany like California. For that to happen, the
overwhelming majority of people in Europe will have to think of themselves first
and foremost as Europeans, not as French, German or Italian, just
as most people here tend to think of themselves first and foremost
as Americans, not as New Yorkers, Buckeyes, or Hoosiers. Given
historical, cultural and language differences, that seems unlikely
to happen. It would also mean that people in Germany and the
Netherlands would see a big part of their tax dollars
flowing to Greece and Spain, just like people in Connecticut and New
Jersey see a big part of their tax dollars flowing to
Mississippi and Alaska.
If that doesn't happen, the common Euro currency has to fall
apart. Italy and Greece, unlike the U.S. do not have their own
printing press (hence when they get downgraded, their interest
rates soar, not sink like here). They have to rely on the printing
press of the ECB, and that is largely controlled by the Germans.
The process of unscrambling the Euro egg and going back to Drachmas
and Liras is going to be a very messy one, and will result in huge
dislocations, and thus potentially cause economic collapse. For
example, if someone in Italy owes
$1 million Euros, how many Lira will
that be when there is no longer a Euro to pay back? European banks
are heavily invested in the bonds of the PIIGS, and there is a real
threat to the stability of the European banking system. If the
European banking system goes down, ours will follow as night
follows day (or at the very least we will need to see Son of TARP).
This is not a problem caused here, and is not the fault of Obama,
or Bush, or Congress or even the Tea party, for that matter. It is
a mess of the Europeans own making, but its effects will be felt
here, just as the effects of the mortgage mess of our making were
felt there.
The debt ceiling deal means that the government is out of any
potential options to deal with the aftermath of such a shock. In
the second quarter the economy grew at only 1.3%, far below the
consensus estimates of 1.7% growth (we will get the second look at
second quarter growth on Friday). The real shocker in the report
were the downward revisions to past quarters. Most notably, the
first quarter was revised down to just 0.4% from 1.9% and the
fourth quarter was revised down to 2.3% from 3.1%. It also showed
that the recession was FAR worse than previously reported, with a
total decline in Real GDP of 5.1%, not the 4.2% we thought we had
suffered. We need at least 2% growth to bring down
unemployment.
Obama now says he wants to fight for jobs. Unfortunately, he
just bargained away all of the ammo he needs to fight with. It is
not that the current round of spending cuts are that big in the
short term, they aren't. The problem is it precludes taking any
other fiscal action that could help on the growth and employment
front. It is an open question still if the two measures that were
taken to sustain growth this year (the payroll tax cut and the
extension of unemployment benefits) will even be renewed next year.
If they both expire, growth will probably be about 1.0% below what
it would be if they are continued, or about 0.5% lower if either
one of them is allowed to lapse. In our slow growth environment,
1.0% can make a big difference. Barring a real collapse of
Europe, it now looks like 2012
will be a year of positive but still very low economic growth. More
of the pseudo recovery where the economy grows, but unemployment
remains very high, or possibly even rises a bit.
The Fed realized that at their last meeting, but only took a
baby step towards addressing the problem. They finally were a bit
more explicit about what they meant by "an extended period" of
exceptionally low interest rates. The new provisional definition is
at least until the middle of 2013, something that will keep rates
very low out to the two to three year part of the curve. However,
even that baby step caused the most dissention at the Fed in my
memory, with three dissents. My reading of the Fed statement was
the Fed saying that the economy is running too cold with inflation
for the foreseeable future running at below optimal levels, and
unemployment remaining exceptionally high for a long time, but that
the Fed Cavalry was not about to ride to the rescue of the
settlers.
The big event of the week will be Bernanke's speech in
Jackson Hole Wyoming on Friday.
Last year he telegraphed QE2 there. Given the dissention on the Fed
board, I don't think we will see QE3. There are some steps that
could be done however. First and foremost of these would be to stop
paying banks 0.25% on their excess reserves. That effectively
rewards them for not lending. I would cut that to zero, or
possibly even consider making the rate slightly negative.
Stay Invested but Buy Insurance
I am still inherently optimistic. The U.S. has weathered many
storms before (world wars, depressions, terrorist strikes) and has
always proved resilient. Stock market valuations remain compelling,
and it is good to buy when things are cheap. Usually the end of the
world does not happen. There are plenty of companies that are in
great shape and will continue to grow and prosper. In the final
analysis, the value of a company is based on what it will earn in
the future, and what interest rate you have to discount those
future earnings by. Corporate earnings are still very strong and
interest rates are very low. With the exception of the darkest days
of late 2008-early 2009, the 12 month forward P/E ratio is at its
lowest level in decades.
Still, these are perilous times on a macro level. I first
suggested taking out insurance against a debt ceiling fiasco in the
June 30th edition of Earnings Trends.
Then the 120 September SPY puts (my suggested vehicle, but just an
example) were trading for $0.89. On
Friday they are going for $9.05. Two
weeks ago, I suggested selling off half of those, and selling off
the other half if the S&P were to hit 1100. You have not been
stopped out yet, but have come close a few times over the last two
weeks. At this point I would say hold out for 1100 on the S&P
until Labor Day. If we get to
Labor Day and still have not hit
1100, go ahead and close out the position then.
On balance I remain bullish. I am however, pulling back on my
year end target price for the S&P 500. I had been looking for
about 1400 by the end of the year (since December). With the slower
economy, and the turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic, something
more on the order of 1325 now looks more realistic. Getting there
is going to be a bumpy ride. Strong earnings should trump a dicey
international situation, and the drama in DC. Valuations on stocks
look very compelling, with the S&P trading from just 12.8x
2011, and 10.8x 2012 earnings. Put in terms of earnings yields, we
are looking at 8.45% and 9.25%, while T-notes are only at 2.25%.
The old "Fed Model" suggested that the forward earnings yield (call
it 8.85%) should be in line with the 10 year note.
On that basis, stocks are wildly undervalued. Even based on the
10 year trailing P/E, which includes two periods of very depressed
earnings and does not take into consideration interest rates,
stocks are just about fairly valued. However, even though we are
seeing more analysts raise their estimates for 2012 than cut them,
the overall expected total net income for 2012 has started to fall
off by a total of about $40 billion
over the last month. Of that $30
billion has come from the Financial sector. While that still
implies growth of 9.45% over the expected 2011 levels, it is down
from growth of 13.5% a month ago. That is a trend that bears
watching very closely.
Long term investors should start to take advantage of the
current valuations. However I would not be shooting for the stars.
Look for those companies with solid dividends (say over 2.5%), low
payout ratios, solid balance sheets and a history of rising
dividends, which are still seeing analysts raise their estimates
for 2012. I don't know if you will be happy doing so next week or
even next month, but I am pretty sure that you will be quite
satisfied five years from now if you do so ...
Earnings Preview: Heinz
H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ) is scheduled to report its
first-quarter 2012 financial results on Tuesday, August 23, 2011.
The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter is
76 cents per share, an improvement of
5 cents from the prior quarter.
Fiscal Year 2011 Synopsis
The company posted robust earnings of 71
cents per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010,
missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The adjusted
earnings came in ahead of last year's 60
cents per share.
The company also lifted its annualized dividend by 6.7% to
$1.92 per share from $1.80 a year ago, effective with the July
payment.
Excluding two cents of Quero
acquisition, adjusted earnings increased to $3.08 per share in fiscal 2011, against the
earnings of $2.87 per share in fiscal
2010.
In the fiscal year ending April 27,
2011, Heinz recorded sales growth of 2.0% to $10.7 billion from $10.5
billion in the prior-year quarter. The growth was primarily
driven by a 14.4% organic sales growth and a strong performance in
the emerging markets, which generated more than 16% of the
company's total sales in fiscal year 2011. In addition, volume
growth of 0.7% and a 1.2% benefit from increased pricing also added
to the growth.
Moving forward, Heinz expects to invest approximately
$160 million or 35 cents per share in fiscal 2012 on initiatives
to increase the manufacturing efficiency and accelerate
productivity on a global scale. Furthermore, Heinz is also
accelerating investment in Project Keystone, its ongoing global
initiative to improve productivity and make the company more
competitive by adding capabilities, harmonizing global processes
and standardizing its systems through SAP. Heinz expects an
incremental cost of approximately $40
million, or 8 cents per share,
for Keystone expenses, which are included in the company's constant
currency outlook.
Excluding the cost of its one-time productivity initiatives, but
including the higher costs of Keystone, Heinz expects its fiscal
2012 constant currency earnings to be in the range of $3.24 to $3.32.
For fiscal 2013, Heinz expects its constant currency earnings
per share in the range of $3.60 to
$3.70, fueled by its productivity investments, representing
a two-year average growth rate of 8.5% to 10% on a constant
currency basis.
Furthermore, Heinz raised its long-term constant currency
outlook for EPS growth to a range of 7% to 10% from a previous
range of 6% to 9%.
Heinz also expects strong operating free cash flow for fiscal
2012 of approximately $1.15 billion,
before special items. On a reported basis, Heinz expects its
operating free cash flow to exceed $1
billion.
The company expects its emerging markets to generate more than
20% of the company's total sales in fiscal 2012, reflecting
double-digit organic growth and the acquisitions of Quero and
Foodstar.
Agreement with Analysts
Analysts have projected strong growth from the company over the
next two years after the solid fourth quarter results. However, we
don't see any significant movement in analyst estimates for the
current quarter or the fiscal year over the past 30 days or 7 days.
With no changes in the estimate revision trends for the coming
first-quarter 2012, we justify a neutral sentiment on the
stock.
None out of the nine analysts revised their estimates for the
first quarter ending July 2011, whereas only one
enhanced over the past 30 days in the second quarter ending
October 2011.
For the fiscal year 2012, only one out of the fourteen analysts
provided an upside in the estimate. However, none of the analysts
moved their estimates for the fiscal year 2013.
The limited number of changes to estimates point to the fact
that there was no major catalyst during the quarter that could
drive results.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
There was no change in the estimates trend for the first quarter
of 2012, nor for the fiscal years of 2012 and 2013 over the past 30
days. However, the estimates have moved up by a penny to
85 cents per share in the past 30
days for the second quarter of 2012.
Heinz has a solid balance sheet and strong free cash flow, which
the company uses to pay off its shareholders through regular
dividend payments.
Moreover, Heinz is expected to deliver continued growth in its
domestic business, while it strengthens its international
operations and reallocates resources to key brands. The company is
focusing on the top 15 brands, which hold strong market positions
and represent nearly 70% of total sales. Also, the company is
cutting costs to improve margins.
However, intense competition from other established players and
commodity inflation undermines the company's future growth
prospects and profitability. Consequently, we have a Neutral rating
on the stock. Heinz holds a Zacks #3 Rank, which translates into a
short-term Hold recommendation.
H.J. Heinz, which competes with
Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE) and Campbell Soup Company
(NYSE: CPB), primarily markets ketchup, condiments & sauces,
frozen food, soup, beans, meals & snacks, and infant foods.
Heinz's major brands are Heinz Ketchup, Ore-Ida frozen potatoes,
Weight Watchers Smart Ones frozen dinners, Classico sauces, Jack
Daniels barbeque sauces and ABC Indonesian sauces.
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