AIR Stays in Neutral Territory - Analyst Blog
February 06 2012 - 12:15PM
Zacks
We maintain a Neutral recommendation on AAR
Corp. (AIR).
The aviation industry as a whole has started showing signs of
improvement. We expect such a scenario, to bring in a positive
trend in the commercial air transport market, thereby creating
robust demand for maintenance and spare parts, equipment and
methods of repair and overhaul services.
Adding to its advantage, AAR Corp. has been winning a number of
significant contracts for providing value-added solutions in
support of the U.S. Army and Navy, as well as that of defense and
nation building initiatives of other foreign governments. This
looks impressive going forward.
However, the company is operating in a cyclical and competitive
commercial aerospace market, at the risk of significant downturns.
Therefore, an adverse situation of an overcapacity and cutthroat
competition in the market may contract margins.
Moreover, being part of a highly capital intensive industry, the
company needs to depend on the continuing availability of debt and
equity capital. Under such circumstances, the risk of the company’s
inability to obtain favorable financing terms would be harmful in
the near future.
Risks boil down as we witness the sales growth in the second
quarter of 2012. Growth was driven by strength at the company's
supply chain business supported by demand surge among government
and defense customers at the Defense Logistics business. Margin
improvement was also witnessed due to better product availability
at the Aviation Supply Chain segment along with operational
efficiencies at the company's airframe maintenance centers.
Conversely, the company leases aircraft and engines to its
customers on an operating lease basis, the terms of which are
subject to new aircraft deliveries, availability of used aircraft
and engines in the marketplace, competition, financial condition of
the customers and fluctuating demand in the airline industry.
These uncontrollable factors may induce substantial risks for
the company. Further, the company is exposed to currency
fluctuation, lower defense spending and change in the levels of
military flight operations.
Nonetheless, demand for air transport is anticipated to be
stronger in the near future with rising business activities
alongside a slight increase in defense spending across nations. The
company’s market expertise, technical and financial capabilities
are expected to provide it with a strong competitive advantage,
thereby helping it to maintain a satisfactory position in the
industry.
Wood Dale, Illinois based AAR Corp. provides various products
and services to the aviation and defense industries worldwide. The
company competes directly with its peers, such as Goodrich
Corp (GR), Boeing Co (BA),
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT). AIR has a Zacks
#3 Rank, implying a short-term (1-3 months) Hold rating.
AAR CORP (AIR): Free Stock Analysis Report
BOEING CO (BA): Free Stock Analysis Report
GOODRICH CORP (GR): Free Stock Analysis Report
LOCKHEED MARTIN (LMT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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