UNH Ends 2011 Better Than Expected - Analyst Blog
January 10 2012 - 8:53AM
Zacks
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) managed to
perform quite well in 2011, in contrast to analyst predictions that
the stock might be under pressure, given the challenges posed by
the HealthCare law and pressure on its government programs like
Medicare and Medicaid.
The stock of the biggest insurer (on the basis of revenue)
gained 38% in 2011 compared with 15% in 2010, a year in which
Health Care Reform was signed into law and 13% in 2009, the year
which saw heated debates over the Health Care reform.
UnitedHealth also managed to perform well versus its peers
Aetna Inc. (AET), WellPoint Inc.
(WLP), CIGNA Corp. (CI), which saw surges of 37%,
16% and 11%, respectively, in 2011.
Considering that new provisions relating to unreasonable premium
increases, adherence to minimum medical loss ratios (“MLR”) and
denying coverage to pre-existing diseases would pressurize its
earnings, UnitedHealth spent $4.9 million in 2009, on lobbying
against the reform. It spent $2.5 million in 2010 and $2.2 million
in 2011 to try and water down the reforms.
The law's impact on UnitedHealth’s business model and operating
fundamentals turned out to be quite manageable, albeit still
subject to uncertainty. The mandate regarding minimum MLR that went
into effect at the start of 2011 did not have a major effect on the
company’s bottom line.
UnitedHealth was also able to post better-than-expected results
throughout 2011, attributable to low medical claim costs, as
Americans delayed doctor visits and medical procedures in the face
of a weak economy.
In order to position itself for long-term growth, given the
Health Care Reform challenges, UnitedHealth continued to focus on
shifting more of its earnings to faster growing and less regulated
health-related service (non-insurance) businesses, with the goal of
ultimately making 30%-40% of operating income, up from about 20%
currently.
It believes that demand for consulting services, data
management, information technology and related infrastructure
development, disease management, and population-based health and
wellness programs will continue to grow. It also continues to
focus on Medicaid/state program business, highlighting the
significant upcoming opportunities and capabilities that a
diversified carrier could offer to state governments looking to
move the program to managed care.
UnitedHealth expects its 2012 EPS to be in the range of
$4.55-$4.75 and revenues in the $107.0 billion-$108.0 billion
range, up approximately 6.5% from the 2011 revenue guidance of more
than $101 billion. We expect the company to easily achieve the
targets based on its strong operating fundamentals. In fact,
UnitedHealth has had a tradition of guiding conservatively and then
beating the estimates to surprise investors.
Some of the factors that would boost UnitedHealth earnings
in 2012 are:
Medicare, Medicaid Gains: UnitedHealth enjoys a
high exposure in the Medicare market, which is expected to boom in
the coming years as millions of Americans will enter the retirement
age. Moreover, with the acquisition of XLHealth, the company will
further strengthen its position in the Medicare Advantage market,
compelling long-term growth.
Fast-growing Health Services segment: This
business, branded under the name Optum, boasts of higher margin and
is a very important part of the company’s diversification strategy.
For the nine months ended September 30, 2011, the segment delivered
approximately 18% growth. Now with the expansion of the health
service business, management expects the revenue contribution to
approximately double over time.
Strong balance sheet: The insurer enjoys a
solid balance sheet with adequate financial flexibility and a
favorable debt ratio, which helps it take decisions on acquisitions
easily. Moreover, UnitedHealth has opted for shareholder-friendly
measures for managing capital such as dividend payment and share
buybacks.
UnitedHealth currently retains a Zacks #3 Rank, which
translates into a short-term Hold rating. However, considering the
fundamentals, we are maintaining our long-term Outperform
recommendation on the shares.
AETNA INC-NEW (AET): Free Stock Analysis Report
CIGNA CORP (CI): Free Stock Analysis Report
UNITEDHEALTH GP (UNH): Free Stock Analysis Report
WELLPOINT INC (WLP): Free Stock Analysis Report
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