Earnings Preview: Paychex Inc. - Analyst Blog
June 22 2011 - 12:15PM
Zacks
Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is scheduled to announce
its fourth quarter fiscal 2011 results on June 23, and we do not
see any major variation in analyst estimates at this point.
Third Quarter Overview
Paychex delivered modest third quarter 2011 results, with
earnings of 36 cents per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate
by a penny. The quarter’s results indicated an improving client
retention rate and higher checks per client.
Paychex’s third quarter revenues increased 4.6% year over year,
backed by increases of 9.8% in Human Resources Services revenue and
2.3% in the Payroll Service revenue.
Paychex generated operating income of $198.9 million, up 18.3%
from the year-ago quarter and net income of $130.6 million, up
16.6% year over year. The company exited the quarter with cash and
cash equivalents of $236.0 million.
Paychex witnessed a modest improvement in the quarter’s results
despite an increasing headcount and price per employee. However,
following historical trends Paychex guided to a lackluster fourth
quarter.
Guidance
Paychex expects a weak fourth quarter, given lower contribution
from HR Service revenue, which happens to be less predictive and
depends much on employee retention or addition and unmatched
workers’ compensation.
For fiscal 2011, Paychex continues to expect a 1–2% increase in
Payroll Service revenues from the year-ago quarter. Human Resource
Services revenues are expected to increase in the range of 10.0% to
11.0% (previously 10.0% to 13.0%).
Total service revenue is likely to grow in the range of 3% to 5%
(reiterated). The company also reiterated projections of a 12–17%
decline in interest on funds held for clients and a 29–32% increase
in net investment income.
Interest on funds held for clients and investment income for
fiscal 2011 are expected to be impacted by the low interest rate
environment. However, investment income is expected to benefit from
cash generated from operations.
Net operating income is expected to be 36% of total service
revenue. The effective tax rate is expected to be roughly 35% and
net margin is projected at between 4% and 6%.
The guidance for fiscal 2011 includes anticipated results from
Paychex’ recent acquisition of SurePayroll Inc. Revenue is expected
to have an impact of less than 1% and earnings dilution is likely
to be less than 1 cent per share attributable to amortization on
acquired intangible assets and one-time acquisition costs.
Agreement of Analysts
Out of the 19 analysts providing estimates for the fourth
quarter, none made any revision in their estimates in the last
thirty days. However, out of the 22 analysts providing estimates
for fiscal year 2011, one reduced the estimate in the same time
period.
The nominal change to estimates also point to the fact that
there was no major catalyst during the quarter that could drive
results. Consequently, the analysts are sticking to their estimates
projected post third quarter earnings.
But some analysts prefer to remain cautious based on
management’s commentary of not seeing a significant sign of
improvement in new small-business formation. Moreover, a few
analysts think that aggressive pricing from Automated Data
Processing Inc. (ADP) is taking away more customers from
Paychex.
In the short span between the time when Paychex receives payroll
from its clients and pays it out to employees, the company earns an
interest. Now with the government contemplating to keep interest
rates low despite an economic revival, this quick income stream of
the company will also be restricted.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
There was no change to analyst estimates for the fourth quarter
or fiscal 2011 over the past 30 days. However, the Zacks Consensus
Estimate for fiscal 2011 went up to $1.42 from $1.41 in the past
ninety days.
Recommendation
A recent survey conducted by Paychex indicates that roughly 50%
of small business owners expect to see momentum in their businesses
in fiscal 2011, although some of them expressed concerns regarding
government regulations. Since small businesses make a major
contribution to the company’s total revenue, we can expect healthy
inputs in the coming quarters. We expect the SurePayroll
acquisition to provide Paychex with additional small business
market share and revenue growth.
However, we would prefer to remain cautious based on
management’s expectation for a lackluster fourth quarter.
On the other hand, we are slightly concerned about the growing
competition in the outsourcing space from big players such as
Automated Data Processing Inc. and
Administaff Inc. (ASF), as well as limited margin
expansion due to continuous investments in diverse fields.
Paychex has a Zacks # 4 Rank, implying a short-term Sell
recommendation.
AUTOMATIC DATA (ADP): Free Stock Analysis Report
PAYCHEX INC (PAYX): Free Stock Analysis Report
Zacks Investment Research
Administaff (NYSE:ASF)
Historical Stock Chart
From Apr 2024 to May 2024
Administaff (NYSE:ASF)
Historical Stock Chart
From May 2023 to May 2024