ECB's Lautenschlaeger 'Optimistic' Exit of Bond-Purchase Program Is Near--Update
January 24 2017 - 2:50PM
Dow Jones News
By Tom Fairless
A top European Central Bank official signaled on Tuesday that
the ECB should soon start to wind down its EUR2.3 trillion
bond-purchase program, a keenly awaited move that is expected to
trigger volatility in financial markets.
"I am...optimistic that we can soon turn to the question of an
exit" from easy-money policies, said Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who
sits on the ECB's six-member executive board, at an event in
Hamburg.
The ECB "must get ready for better times," Ms. Lautenschlaeger
said.
It is the first time that an ECB board member has indicated that
the days of the bank's so-called quantitative-easing program may be
numbered.
Only last week, ECB President Mario Draghi said the issue of
exiting the bank's controversial stimulus program hadn't even been
discussed by officials at a policy meeting.
The comments come amid a surge of criticism of the ECB in
Germany, where a recent jump in inflation, to 1.7% in December, has
sparked political concerns over the impact on the nation's
savers.
Ms. Lautenschlaeger, a former Bundesbank official who is the
only German-born member of the ECB's executive board, has
previously expressed skepticism about the bank's bond
purchases.
She warned on Tuesday that the ECB shouldn't wait too long
before starting to wind down the program.
"All preconditions for a stable rise in inflation exist," Ms.
Lautenschlaeger said. The ECB shouldn't wait "until the last doubt
about the return of inflation has been dispelled."
Inflation in the 19-nation eurozone jumped to 1.1% last month,
the highest level in three years, due largely to a rebound in
energy prices.
But it is still some way short of the ECB's target of just below
2%.
Crucially, core inflation -- stripping out volatile energy and
food prices -- has remained stubbornly low.
Mindful of that gap, Mr. Draghi last week pledged to continue
the ECB's bond-purchase program through the end of the year. The
purchases are due to slow to EUR60 billion from EUR80 billion per
month in April.
Ms. Lautenschlaeger's words indicate she may favor an end to the
bond purchases before December. If so, she would be supported by
her countryman Jens Weidmann, who heads Germany's Bundesbank and
has opposed the QE program from the start.
German politicians and economists have been lining up in recent
weeks to call for an end to the ECB's QE program, which was
launched nearly two years ago and has been repeatedly expanded.
Clemens Fuest, a top German economist who is president of the
Ifo economic think tank, says the ECB should start to wind down the
program as soon as eurozone inflation hits 1.5%.
Ms. Lautenschlaeger warned that the risks and adverse side
effects of QE were mounting the longer the program was in
place.
Still, while it is "important to stop taking the medicine as
soon as possible," it shouldn't be withdrawn too early, she
said.
"You shouldn't abruptly stop loose monetary policy but slowly
cut the dose -- such a policy has to be reduced gradually," she
said.
Any formal signal that the ECB's bond-purchase program will end
is expected to trigger a major repricing of financial assets, as
investors price in higher future interest rates. When then Federal
Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke signaled in 2013 that the Fed's own QE
program would be wound down, U.S. Treasury yields surged and the
dollar surged, an episode known as the Taper Tantrum.
Write to Tom Fairless at tom.fairless@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 24, 2017 14:35 ET (19:35 GMT)
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