Dan Ariens, leading his family’s fourth-generation business, Ariens Company, known for its distinctive bright orange snow blowers and lawnmowers, has been forced to make tough decisions in response to a sales downturn. The company, based in Brillion, Wisconsin, saw a 20% reduction in its workforce, dropping to 1,600 employees, with no anticipated business improvement until 2025.

This situation underscores a broader trend in U.S. factory employment, which has remained stagnant for over a year, contrasting sharply with the wider job market’s four-year growth spurt. Despite President Joe Biden’s 2022 industrial policy initiatives aimed at fostering growth in sectors like semiconductors, electric vehicles, and green technologies, the broader manufacturing employment outlook remains bleak. Factors such as high interest rates, a slowing economy, and the end of the COVID-19 demand surge for manufactured goods contribute to this outlook.

While the Biden administration argues that it’s premature to judge the full impact of its policies, stating that manufacturing investments typically take six to eight quarters to generate factory jobs, the current state sees major producers like Deere & Co, Whirlpool Corp, and 3M Co announcing layoffs. Although these reductions have been targeted rather than widespread, many factories have paused or entirely ceased hiring.

For instance, Kondex Corp., a producer of blades for farm machinery, has significantly scaled back its aggressive hiring practices from the pandemic’s height. The company’s president, Keith Johnson, anticipates a 5% headcount reduction through attrition this year without resorting to layoffs.

The ripple effects of these hiring freezes and targeted job cuts are felt acutely in rural areas and small towns, where multiple employers reducing staff can have a compounded impact. For example, Deere announced a cut of 150 workers in Ankeny, Iowa, shortly before Tyson Foods Inc revealed plans to close a nearby pork-packing plant, impacting 1,200 workers.

Manufacturing’s share of U.S. employment has been declining for decades, a trend exacerbated by the economy’s shift towards services, improvements in efficiency and automation, and increasing global competition. This decline was briefly arrested before the pandemic but resumed as the demand for goods waned in late 2022.

Despite this, some companies like Vermeer, a machinery maker in Pella, Iowa, continue to hire, albeit more selectively. The sector’s cautious approach to workforce reductions, borne out of the labor shortages experienced during the pandemic, reflects a shift in philosophy, with companies like Ariens Company implementing measures like alternating work weeks to avoid further layoffs.

The current downturn in manufacturing jobs, despite the ongoing boom in factory construction, suggests that the promised job growth in this sector may not materialize until 2025 or beyond. Companies and industry leaders remain hopeful but acknowledge the challenges posed by economic conditions and external factors like weather, which significantly impact businesses reliant on seasonal products.