By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for March delivery rose 2.2% to $8.18 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday as the U.S. and NATO took further steps to prepare for a potential conflict at the Russia-Ukraine border.

--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.3% to $14.07 1/4 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery fell 0.2% to $6.20 a bushel.




Making Preparations: Wheat futures on the CBOT continued to climb after the Pentagon said it had ordered up to 8,500 U.S. troops on standby for deployment to Eastern Europe. "Wheat prices on Chicago are the most impacted by the current geopolitical crisis with Russia, with operators pointing to probable supply disruptions from this major exporting country in case of conflict," said AgriTel. The firm adds that poor conditions for winter wheat in the U.S. is also helping drive prices higher.

Taking a Ride: Corn futures rode on wheat's momentum for most of the day. A Russia-Ukraine conflict would potentially affect Ukraines' corn exports in addition to wheat exports of both Russia and Ukraine. However, farmers took the opportunity to sell this afternoon. "Corn started the day stronger on Ukrainian tensions, but backed off with decent U.S. farmer selling on the rally today," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital.




Dialing in Risk: The momentum seen in CBOT wheat futures over the past week appears to be grain traders dialing in risk premium ahead of any potential military conflict, said Jason Britt of Central States Commodities. "The market's anticipation could be worse than what actually happens," said Mr. Britt, adding that any issues that sanctions may place on Russian wheat exports may quickly be filled by wheat from other competing sources like the E.U. and Australia. "Either way, it's going to take a while to sort out," he said.

Looking to the Future: Renewable fuels is chief in ADM's focus for 2022, the company said in its latest earnings report released this morning. "As we enter 2022, we're well situated to capitalize on strong crush margins, driven by good demand for meal and for vegetable oil as a feedstock for renewable green diesel," said Juan Luciano of ADM. The company reported lower sales figures for crushing in 2021, but attributed it to "net negative timing impacts" costing ADM $250 million. These "impacts" are not expected to last into 2022.

Growing Stocks: Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week are forecasting U.S. ethanol supplies to again rise in this weeks' EIA report. Analysts are predicting stocks for the week ending January 21 to be anywhere from 23.7 million barrels to 24.49 million barrels, up from 23.59 million barrels reported last week. If inventories arrive at the high end of analyst expectations, then it'll be the highest they've been since May 2020. Meanwhile, analysts are forecasting a wide range for daily production - anywhere from 1.01 million barrels per day to 1.09 million barrels per day.




--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-Mondelez International Inc. will release its fourth-quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 25, 2022 15:31 ET (20:31 GMT)

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