Soybeans Rise as U.S. Harvest Pace Slows -- Daily Grain Highlights
By Kirk Maltais
--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.5% to $12.28 a bushel,
on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, in response to a slowing
pace for the U.S. soybean harvest.
--Wheat for December delivery were virtually unchanged at $7.36
--Corn for December delivery fell 0.5% to $5.30 1/4 a
Foot on the Brake: One factor providing support for soybeans
today is the slowdown in harvesting reported this week by the U.S.
Department of Agriculture. The harvest is 60% done, up from a
4-year average of 55% but down from 73% at this point last year.
Meanwhile, the corn harvest is now 51% complete, down from 57% at
this point last year but up from a 4-year average of 41%.
Global View: For wheat, which also rose today, the driver is
coming from strong demand globally, "on short supply for high
protein wheat, and unfavorably dry weather across the U.S. Great
Plains bias western and southern areas," said Terry Reilly of
Futures International. In a new forecast, SovEcon sees the 2022
Russian wheat crop totaling 80.7 million metric tons, higher than
75.5 million tons in 2021 on a better weather outlook.
Tall Order: Soybean futures were also buoyed by strength in
soyoil and soymeal. In the case of soy, the factors lifting futures
are analyst forecasts that more soybeans need to be planted in the
U.S. to meet demand from the renewable fuels industry - with one
group calling for as much as 30 million acres over the next three
years. S&P Global Platts forecasts that 40 billion pounds of
soyoil will be needed to meet demand for renewable fuels after
2025, but in its latest supply and demand report, the USDA said
that total U.S. soyoil production was only 25 billion pounds in the
past marketing year.
Shortage Fears: Issues with skyrocketing fertilizer costs appear
to be impacting Brazilian corn crop planting. "There are already
unconfirmed reports of fertilizer shortages in Brazil, although I
remain skeptical of the scope of those at this early date," said
Arlan Suderman of StoneX. "Those shortages may become more
pronounced though as we move into 2022 if we remain on the same
trajectory." High fertilizer prices are impacting European
planting, and may pressure the decisions of U.S. farmers if
elevated prices continue.
Looking for Less: Ethanol stockpiles are expected to slip in the
EIA's weekly report tomorrow, according to analysts surveyed by Dow
Jones. Analysts forecast inventories to land anywhere from 19.56
million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, with the majority of
analysts expecting inventories to come in on the lower end. Last
week, the EIA reported inventories at 19.85 million barrels.
Meanwhile, production may slightly rise, with analysts forecasting
daily production anywhere from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.06
million barrels per day. Last week, production was assessed at 1.03
million barrels per day.
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks
report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30
a.m ET Thursday.
--The USDA will release its monthly livestock slaughter report
at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at email@example.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 19, 2021 15:24 ET (19:24 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.