By Sarah Chaney Cambon
Initial unemployment claims through regular state programs
dropped to 444,000 last week, marking a new low level since the
pandemic hit in mid-March 2020.
The number of people receiving benefits through state and
pandemic-related pandemic programs also declined at the beginning
of May to 16 million people from 16.9 million in late April, the
Labor Department said Thursday. That includes benefits through one
of several programs, including regular state aid and federal
emergency programs put in place in response to the pandemic.
U.S. stocks rose Thursday after release of the jobless claims
data, putting major indexes on track to snap a three-day losing
steak.
Though jobless claims are on a downward trend, April's job gain
of 266,000 fell far short of the one million economists had
forecast, fueling concerns among Republicans that enhanced federal
unemployment payments were discouraging people from seeking
work.
More than three-quarters of Republican-led states plan to end an
extra $300-a-week in federal jobless benefits early, likely
triggering a further decrease in the number of benefits recipients
this summer.
This week Texas, Oklahoma and Indiana joined the list of at
least 21 states that are cutting off access to federal benefits
early after a much weaker-than-expected April jobs report sparked
concerns of labor shortages. States are opting out of the $300
supplemental benefit, extended payments and benefits for
gig-economy and other workers not typically eligible for
unemployment benefits.
States have announced dates ranging from mid-June to mid-July
for when they will stop processing pandemic-related benefits. That
means nearly 3.5 million individuals could lose the $300 weekly
benefits -- which were set to expire in early September --
beginning in mid-June, according to estimates by forecasting firm
Oxford Economics.
Of those, about 1.4 million will also lose pandemic benefits for
gig workers, and about 1.1 million will no longer have access to
extended benefits that kick in after claimants exhaust their
regular state benefits.
Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, sees
unemployment benefits as one reason that employers are struggling
to find workers. But, he said, other factors are also keeping
unemployment recipients on the sidelines, such as parents'
increased child-care responsibilities during the pandemic and the
persistence of the virus.
"It's not as if just by turning off unemployment benefits people
will find jobs," Mr. Daco said. "There are always going to be a
number of factors that influence your decision to work."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco researchers Nicolas
Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert G. Valletta estimated the $300 federal
benefit likely had "small but noticeable effects on job search and
worker availability in early 2021," according to a new working
paper.
For each month at the start of this year, if seven out of 28
unemployed workers received job offers, one of the seven would
reject the offer because of the $300 supplement, the San Francisco
Fed paper estimates. The researchers noted their findings were
preliminary and an extension of an analysis on the impact of last
year's extra $600 benefit.
Many states that are cutting off the federal unemployment
supplement provide regular weekly benefits well below the national
average of about $350 in March. For instance, Mississippi, which is
slashing federal benefits in mid-June, makes average weekly
payments of $195, according to March Labor Department data.
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt said the first 20,000 Oklahomans on
unemployment benefits who return to the workforce will receive a
$1,200 payment. On Monday he directed Oklahoma's unemployment
agency to end all federal unemployment benefits June 26.
"This is the right move for Oklahoma," Mr. Stitt said. "Since
our state has been open for business since last June, the biggest
challenge facing Oklahoma businesses today is not reopening, it's
finding employees."
President Biden has defended the benefits and said his
administration would make clear that people can't turn down
suitable jobs and keep collecting benefits, except in specific
circumstances. His Democratic administration has said that other
factors are deterring job searches, such as workers' fear of
getting sick during the pandemic and a lack of full-time child
care.
Some Democrats argue that employers aren't paying enough to lure
back workers. "Let's be clear. There is not a shortage of willing
workers in America," said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.), who
caucuses with Democrats. "There is a shortage of employers willing
to pay workers a living wage with decent benefits."
There are signs of nascent wage pressures. Average hourly
earnings rose 5.8% in April from February 2020 for private-sector
and leisure-and-hospitality-employees, Labor Department figures
show.
Large companies have also recently announced wage increases.
Amazon.com Inc. said its open roles are offering average pay of $17
an hour, an increase over its typical starting wage of $15 an hour.
McDonald's Corp. said it would increase wages for more than 36,500
hourly workers by an average of 10% over the next several
months.
Labor market tightness varies greatly across the U.S. In
Vermont, there were nearly five job postings for one unemployed
worker last month, the highest share in the nation, according to an
analysis by Job search site ZipRecruiter. Kansas, Iowa and South
Dakota were among the states with at least three postings per
unemployed person.
Conversely, in Hawaii, Nevada, California and New York, there
were more unemployed workers than available jobs, according to the
analysis. Hawaii and Nevada's tourist-driven economies had among
the most job losses last year, and unemployment also rose sharply
in densely populated coastal cities.
Eric Morath contributed to this article.
Write to Sarah Chaney Cambon at sarah.chaney@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 20, 2021 11:16 ET (15:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.