By Harriet Torry
The U.S. economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter,
recovering significant ground it lost earlier in the coronavirus
Gross domestic product -- the value of all goods and services
produced across the economy -- rose 7.4% in the third quarter from
the prior quarter, or 33.1% at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted
annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. The third
quarter increase offset a good chunk of the record drop in output
earlier in the year when the virus and related shutdowns disrupted
business activity across the country.
The economy rebounded in the third-quarter as businesses
reopened, employers restored many jobs, the government provided
trillions of dollars of aid and consumers resumed spending. That
puts the economy about 3.5% smaller than at the end of last year,
adjusted for inflation and seasonal fluctuations.
Forecasters expect the economy to expand through the fourth
quarter, though more slowly, amid a pandemic still disrupting lives
and commerce as the virus infects tens of thousands of people a
day. Analysts project the economy will end 2020 smaller than a year
earlier, but grow in 2021.
The GDP report provides the last major quantitative snapshot of
the economy before Tuesday's presidential election. Both President
Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden have promised
to create millions of jobs and further heal the economy.
"This is the quarter that captures the reopening of the
economy," said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities,
adding that "it's a far cry from signaling the all-clear that the
economy's in great shape here."
U.S. GDP is normally reported at an annual rate, or as if the
quarter's pace of growth continued for a full year. But the
pandemic triggered extreme swings in output -- a severe drop
followed by a quick rebound -- making the annualized numbers
misleading. No one expects second- or third-quarter numbers to
continue for a full year.
GDP contracted at seasonally and inflation-adjusted 31.4% annual
pace in the second quarter, or simply 9% from the prior
The recovery is expected to slow in the fourth quarter as the
temporary jolt from the economy's reopening and government stimulus
fades, with unemployment expected to remain high this winter. The
Wall Street Journal's October survey of economists found that more
than half of respondents don't expect GDP will return to its
pre-pandemic level until next year and that the economy will
contract 3.6% this year, measured from the fourth quarter of
Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell by 40,000 to
751,000 in the week through Oct. 24, the Labor Department said
Thursday. That was the lowest level of claims since mid-March, just
before the coronavirus pandemic shut down much business activity
throughout the U.S. economy.
The U.S. as of September has recovered about half of the 22
million jobs lost in March and April, at the beginning of the
"We've had a lot of progress in a short period of time," Amherst
Pierpont Securities economist Stephen Stanley said. He expects the
U.S. could in the third quarter get back nearly two-thirds of the
output it lost due to the pandemic. Still, "the idea there are
going to be winners and losers definitely holds," he said, pointing
to industries -- and their workers -- that continue to struggle
with the effects of the pandemic, such as restaurants and other
Recent private-sector data show consumer spending remains below
prior-year levels, led by weaker spending on in-person services
such as travel, entertainment and restaurants. JPMorgan Chase &
Co.'s tracker of credit and debit-card transactions showed that
spending was down 5.1% from a year earlier in the week through Oct.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S.
economic output, and economists expect it powered growth in the
Spending on long-lasting goods is expected to be particularly
strong. Consumers, especially those in higher-income households,
bought furniture, autos, computers and home-exercise equipment as
many worked and stayed close to home because of the pandemic. The
housing sector also has boomed, thanks to low mortgage rates and
demand for larger living spaces.
Business investment also likely picked up in the third quarter,
although expected weak spots include industrial and commercial
building amid a drop in commuting and energy costs.
Business has been thriving for Premium Service Brands, a
home-services franchising company based in Charlottesville, Va.,
said Chief Executive Paul Flick. Third-quarter revenue is up 44%
from a year earlier, following an initial drop in business in March
and April when customers were reluctant to have work crews in their
homes, he said.
"Overall people are saving money, taking those savings and
reinvesting it into their home. They're not going to restaurants
and not traveling," Mr. Flick said.
Christopher Boone, an automotive-industry data analyst in
Westfield, Ind., said that "right now my spending is somewhat wary,
just because of uncertainty in markets" related to the pandemic and
He and his wife, Nancy, recently bought a car and plan to travel
to Florida this winter. He expects the pandemic's impact on his
future spending "will be collateral effects," such as the
availability of products. "Disruptions in supply chains are going
to create shortages in the Christmas season, I'm positive of that,"
he said. "I think things are just going to be hard to get."
Meanwhile, restaurants have faced continued weak demand and
capacity constraints due to the coronavirus pandemic. Glenn Lunde,
chief executive of San Jose, Calif.-based Togo's Eateries LLC,
which operates and franchises a chain of 183 sandwich restaurants,
said the past few months have been "quite an adventure."
Sales were down 26% year-over-year in the second quarter and
down 8% in the third quarter. In September, sales fell 6% from the
prior year. "I think everyone's concerned about cases going up,
where's the virus going to go, no one really knows. The election,
stimulus, there's a lot of uncertainty given all these unknowns,"
Mr. Lunde said.
Write to Harriet Torry at email@example.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 29, 2020 09:10 ET (13:10 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.