By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for December delivery rose 1% to $5.50 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Monday, amid reports of weather conditions hurting the wheat harvest by competitors on the export market such as Russia.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3.66 3/4 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.6% to $9.96 1/4 a bushel.




Wicked Weather: Weather events in different wheat-growing areas of the world had U.S. wheat futures leading major grains higher Monday. "A weekend Australian frost has damaged the Victoria and South Australian wheat crops according to several cash sources," said AgResource, who says that the bushel losses from the frost are currently unknown. Projections for Russian wheat are falling as well. "The ongoing acute dryness has Black Sea exporters discussing the chance that a mid-October ministry meeting could lower 2021 Russian wheat export potential under quotas," said the firm.

Proceed With Caution: Grains futures on the CBOT posted limited movement Monday, with many traders looking ahead to the USDA's quarterly stocks report Wednesday, which is "known for its surprises," according to Arlan Suderman of StoneX. "The stocks report is also expected to be accompanied by a modest reduction in the size of last year's corn crop, while last year's soybean crop is pushed larger by 45 million or more bushels."

Beijing Brakes: The USDA again didn't report any new flash sales of grain exports to China, which placed pressure on CBOT soybean futures today. The USDA did report 110,800 metric tons of corn sold to Japan, as well as 207,140 tons of corn and 218,300 tons of soybeans sold to unknown destinations, but the absence of China in these figures was seen as a possible reason for fund traders to cut large net long position in soybeans - 211,590 contracts as of the CFTC's latest report Friday. "In the near term, the market may need to push out more of the speculative length," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives.




Overflow: U.S. ethanol inventories are expected to increase this week, said Terry Reilly of Futures International. According to Mr. Reilly, ethanol inventories are expected to rise 50,000 to 150,000 barrels, bringing the total back over 20 million barrels for the first time in roughly a month. For traders watching for signs of economic recovery, an increase of inventory would suggest a stagnation in fuel demand - bad news for corn farmers looking for a recovery in ethanol consumption. However, daily ethanol production is also expected to grow, by 7,000 barrels from 906,000 barrels per day last week.

Inspections Mixed: Soybean export inspections are at their lowest levels in roughly a month, falling to 44.5 million bushels this week - down from 50.7 million bushels last week and their lowest level since late August, according to USDA data. However, soybean inspections this week are higher than their 10-week average of 36 million bushels. Meanwhile, corn and wheat export inspections this week exceeded their 10-week averages, at 31.8 million bushels for corn and 20.7 million bushels for wheat, according to USDA data.

Yields Aplenty: Grains traders expect this afternoon's crop progress report from the USDA to show ample progress in harvests of corn and soybeans. "Yields are coming a little better than expected and with rapid harvest progress over the next 10 days the pressure on prices will likely continue," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage.




--The EIA releases its weekly update on ethanol production and inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA releases its quarterly grain stocks report at noon ET Wednesday.

--The USDA releases its monthly agricultural prices report at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 28, 2020 15:47 ET (19:47 GMT)

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