In big, indiscriminate sell-offs in the market, there are always
some companies that just get “stupid cheap.” They might not be the
best companies in the world, but they are simply being given away.
I’m not talking about companies that are falling apart, just ones
that might not be the most exciting in the world.
To make sure I’m not looking at firms that are on the verge of
implosion, I required that they have a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy)
or Zacks #2 Rank (Buy). That means that they are in the top 20% of
all firms based on recent earnings estimate revisions and earnings
surprise.
Setting Up the Screen
Rather than just rely on one dimension of value, I decided to look
for companies that were cheap on a variety of measures. I always
consider earnings to be the single most important thing to look for
when evaluating a stock. After all, without earnings it is
impossible to pay out dividends for very long.
Still, there are times when earnings can be misleading,
particularly if accounting games are played to make them look
better than they really are. I looked for companies that were
trading for less than 10X this year’s earnings and less than 9x
next year’s expected earnings. Most of the firms that made the
final cut are much cheaper than that.
I then looked for companies that are trading below book value --
the historical value of their assets minus their liabilities per
share. Provided that the asset values of on the companies books are
accurate, that means that the company could well be worth more dead
than alive. If you could sell off all the assets at their balance
sheet values, and then pay off all the liabilities, you would make
a profit. That provides a very good margin of safety.
In my experience, a high price-to-book-value does not always mean
that a company is expensive, but a very low price-to-book-value
generally means the company is cheap (Financial stocks are often
the exception to that, particularly now, since I think that the
book values of many of their assets belong on the fiction
shelf).
I also wanted companies that provide at least something in the way
of a dividend yield. Unlike some of my other recent posts, the
dividend was not the prime consideration, although several of the
firms do have attractive yields. My cut off was a dividend yield of
at least 0.5%. Not huge, but better than you get on a 3-year
T-note.
Enterprise Value to EBITDA
My final valuation criteria was sort of a variation on the P/E that
takes debt into account. It is the ratio of Enterprise Value, (EV,
market capitalization plus long-term debt minus cash on hand) to
EBITDA (Earnings before interest taxes Depreciation and
Amortization). In effect, EV is the price you would have to pay if
you were a private equity investor buying the whole firm. EBITDA,
is the cash that you would have available to you to pay any debts
incurred in buying the company.
I was real tough on this one, requiring that it be trading for less
than 5X EV/EBITDA. At current prices, these firms would be terrific
LBO candidates. Alternatively, the companies could redirect their
cash flow into buying back their stock, and eventually the people
who didn’t sell would have massive stakes in the company.
Theoretically the cheapest firm on the list,
Volkswagen (VLKAY), could redirect all of its cash
flow to buying back stock and in less than one year have bought
back every last share (provided of course that all that buying
didn’t bid up its price -- and doing so would not be great for the
company’s long term health, and I doubt it would ever get
Government/Union approval for such a thing). They might, however,
buy back say 10% or even 20% of the firm without doing much damage
to its long-term competitiveness.
The table below shows the valuations on these firms, sorted by
EV/EBITDA. Please note that the Valuations are based as of the
close 8/9/11, but the prices shown in the write up are as of the
close today, after the S&P came back from Wednesday's big
fall.
Being cheap is not aways great protection in the short term, and
most of these firms were also down. However, it does mean the the
table significantly understates just how cheap these firms are. The
companies range in size from tiny, like
Chesapeake
Financial (CPKF), a small bank in Virginia, to some of the
largest oil companies in the world, albeit ones based in Russia.
After the table, I have short company descriptions from Yahoo
Finance.
Company |
Ticker |
P/E using Curr FY Est |
P/E using Next FY Est |
Price/ Book |
EV/EBITDA 12 Mo |
Price/ Sales |
Div Yield |
Volkswagen-Adr |
VLKAY |
4.75 |
5.19 |
0.66 |
0.73 |
0.26 |
1.51% |
Rwe Ag -Sp Adr |
RWEOY |
6.32 |
5.49 |
0.93 |
1.34 |
0.35 |
7.98% |
Lufthansa –Adr |
DLAKY |
7.83 |
7.16 |
0.76 |
1.81 |
0.22 |
3.49% |
Telenorte L Adr |
TNE |
6.68 |
5.93 |
0.33 |
2.23 |
0.30 |
3.63% |
Korea Tele-Adr |
KT |
6.50 |
6.67 |
0.87 |
2.95 |
N/A |
4.78% |
Bunge Ltd |
BG |
9.51 |
8.97 |
0.68 |
3.46 |
0.18 |
1.44% |
Lukoil Hldg-Adr |
LUKOY |
4.80 |
4.47 |
0.82 |
3.56 |
0.47 |
2.94% |
Chesapeake Finc |
CPKF |
6.01 |
5.68 |
0.87 |
3.64 |
0.86 |
3.43% |
Gazprom Neft |
GZPFY |
3.52 |
3.12 |
0.95 |
4.10 |
0.54 |
2.99% |
Oriental Finl |
OFG |
9.73 |
7.02 |
0.81 |
4.40 |
1.56 |
1.71% |
Valero Energy |
VLO |
5.69 |
5.21 |
0.77 |
4.40 |
0.12 |
0.97% |
Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft (VLKAY, $31.05)
manufactures automobiles. The company operates in two divisions,
Automotive and Financial Services. The company provides its
products under the Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, Volkswagen
Commercial Vehicles, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini and Scania brand
names, as well as services under the Volkswagen Financial Services
brand name. Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft operates primarily in
Europe, North America, South America and the Asia-Pacific.
RWE Aktiengeshellschaft (RWEOY, $38.00) engages in
the generation, trading, transmission and supply of electricity and
gas. The company generates electricity from lignite, coal, nuclear
fuel, gas, renewable energies, pumped storage, and oil. It also
operates wind farms, hydroelectric power plants, and biomass
plants. The company offers its products and services primarily to
private and commercial customers, industrial and corporate
customers, and distributors primarily in Germany, the United
Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, and central and south-eastern
Europe. It provides electricity to approximately 16 million
customers and gas to approximately 8 million customers.
Deutsche Lufthansa Aktiengesellschaft (DLKAY,
$17.09) an aviation company, provides passenger transport,
airfreight and airline services worldwide. It operates in five
segments: Passenger Airline Group, Logistics, MRO, IT Services, and
Catering. Further, it offers business travel management solutions
in the area of payment and analysis of corporate travel. As of June
01, 2011, the company’s fleet included 710 aircraft with an average
age of 10.9 years.
Tele Norte Leste Participacoes S.A. (TNE, $13.00)
provides telecommunication services primarily in Brazil. It offers
a portfolio of integrated and convergent communication products
that include regular fixed and mobile telephony, data transmission,
and ISP services. It also operates a network of underwater fiber
optic transmission cables connecting Brazil, Venezuela, Bermuda,
and the United States and an Internet portal called iG. In
addition, the company, through its subsidiary, WAY TV Belo
Horizonte S.A., provides pay TV and broadband Internet services, as
well as interactive services, such as distance learning, telephony,
and telemedicine courses. It offers its services under the Oi and
Turbo brands to residential, commercial, corporate, government and
other customer areas.
KT Corporation (KT, $15.54) provides integrated
telecommunications services in Korea. It offers personal
communications services, mobile telecommunications services, and
third-generation HSDPA-based IMT-2000 wireless Internet and video
multimedia communications services. As of December 31, 2009, it
offered mobile services to approximately 15.0 million subscribers;
and broadband Internet access services to 7.0 million subscribers,
as well as operated 17.0 million lines that provide fixed-line
telephone services
Bunge Limited (BG, $61.60) engages in the
agriculture and food businesses in approximately 30 countries. It
buys, sells, stores, and transports oilseeds and grains; processes
oilseeds to make protein meal for animal feed, and edible oil
products for commercial customers and consumers; produces sugar and
ethanol from sugarcane; mills wheat and corn to make ingredients
used by food companies; and sells fertilizer in North and South
America.
OAO Lukoil (LUKOY, $56.00) together with its
subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, production, refining,
marketing, and distribution of oil and gas in Russia and
internationally. Its exploration and production activities are
primarily located in Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
the Middle East, South America, and northern and western Africa.
The company also engages in refining, marketing, and trading of
crude oil, natural gas, and refined products; and processing and
trading of petrochemical products. Further, it operates
approximately 6 thousand petrol stations in 27 countries under the
LUKOIL brand name, as well as involves in the wholesale of refined
products.
Chesapeake Financial Shares, Inc. (CPKF, $14.00)
operates as the holding company for Chesapeake Bank that provides
personal and business banking products and services in Virginia. It
operates 11 offices in the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula,
including Kilmarnock, Lively, and Irvington on the Northern Neck;
and Mathews, Hayes, and Gloucester on the Middle Peninsula, as well
as 4 branches in Williamsburg.
JSC Gazprom Neft (GZPFY, $20.82) an integrated oil
company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and
sale of crude oil and gas in the Russian Federation. It also
involves in oil refining activities; and the marketing of petroleum
products. The company holds 63 subsoil licenses located in 10
regions of the Russian Federation; and engages in joint development
projects of oil fields in Serbia, Iraq, Angola, Equatorial Guinea,
and Cuba. It also refines crude oil; and acquires, sells, and
transports crude oil and refined oil products, such as gasoline,
jet fuel, diesel fuel, motor oils, bitumen, and other petroleum
products. JSC Gazprom Neft sells its products through its sales
network in the Russian Federation, as well as exports to
approximately 50 countries worldwide.
Oriental Financial Group Inc. (OFG, $10.57), a
financial holding company, provides a range of financial services
to mid and high net worth individuals and families, including
professionals and owners of small and mid-sized businesses
primarily in Puerto Rico. It operates in three segments: Banking,
Financial Services, and Treasury.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO, $20.76) operates
as an independent petroleum refining and marketing company. The
company operates through three segments: Refining, Retail and
Ethanol. Valero Energy Corporation markets its refined products
through bulk and rack marketing network; and approximately 5,800
retail and wholesale branded outlets under various brand names
comprising Valero, Diamond Shamrock, Shamrock, Ultramar, and
Beacon. As of December 31, 2010, it owned and operated 14 petroleum
refineries with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 2.6
million barrels per day located in the United States, Canada, and
Aruba; and 10 ethanol plants situated in Midwest with a combined
production capacity of 1.1 billion gallons per year.
KOREA TELE-ADR (KT): Free Stock Analysis Report
TELENORTE L ADR (TNE): Free Stock Analysis Report
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