Global Medicine Spending to Reach $1.6 Trillion in 2025 Excluding Spending on COVID-19 Vaccines, According to IQVIA Institute...
April 29 2021 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
- The global medicine market — using invoice price levels — is
expected to grow at 3-6% CAGR through 2025
- The pre-pandemic drivers of medicine use and spending have only
been modestly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic
- The total cumulative spending on COVID-19 vaccines through 2025
is projected to be $157 billion
- Global medicine spending will be lifted by stronger pharmerging
market growth through 2025 and offset by slower growth in developed
markets caused by losses of exclusivity for original brands
- Savings from biosimilars will reach an estimated $285 billion
over the next five years
- The two leading global therapy areas — oncology and immunology
— are forecast to grow 9-12% CAGR through 2025, lifted by
significant increases in new treatments and medicine use
Global spending on medicines — using invoice price levels — is
expected to grow at 3-6 percent CAGR through 2025 to reach about
$1.6 trillion by 2025, excluding spending of COVID-19 vaccines,
according to a new research report The Global Spending and Usage of
Medicines released by the IQVIA™ Institute for Human Data Science.
The total cumulative spending on COVID-19 vaccines through 2025 is
projected to be $157 billion, largely focused on the initial wave
of vaccinations to be completed by 2022. In subsequent years,
booster shots are expected to be required on a biannual basis as
the durability of immunity and the continued emergence of viral
variants make an endemic virus the most likely outcome.
“While the pandemic has been extremely disruptive, the
pre-pandemic forces of medicine use and spending remain significant
drivers of the outlook, and these forces have only been modestly
impacted by the immediate effects of COVID-19,” said Murray Aitken,
IQVIA senior vice president and executive director of the IQVIA
Institute for Human Data Science. “The success of countries around
the world in implementing a global vaccination program —
unprecedented in speed and scope — will be key to the outlook for
all medicine use through 2025 and beyond.”
A few key highlights of the report include:
- Substantial global market variations: There are strong
variations in medicine usage and spending across global markets.
Growth in global medicine spending will be lifted by stronger
pharmerging market growth through 2025 and offset by developed
markets where slower growth will result as losses of exclusivity
for original brands outweigh increased spending on newly launched
innovative products.
- Pharmerging markets: In pharmerging markets, growth will
be led by China, which is expected to accelerate post-COVID driven
by greater uptake and use of new original medicines.
- The U.S. market: On a net price basis, the U.S. market
is forecast to grow 0-3 percent CAGR over the next five years, down
from 3 percent CAGR for the past five years.
- Japan: As the third largest global market, Japan will
have flat-to-declining medicine spending as a result of the
continued biennial price cut policy but see rising patent-protected
original brand spending coinciding with policies to encourage a
shift to generics for older medicines.
- Europe: Spending in Europe is expected to increase 2-5
percent CAGR or a total of $35 billion over the next five years to
2025.
- Novel medicines: New brands in developed markets through
2025 are projected to be similar in absolute spending for the last
five years, continuing a historically high period of spending on
novel medicines. The number of new active substances launches are
also projected to continue at an above-average rate, with an
average of 54-63 per year, totaling 290-315 for five years through
2025.
- Loss of brand exclusivity and rise in biosimilars: The
impact of exclusivity losses will increase to $166 billion over the
next five years mostly due to the availability of biosimilars, and
the cumulative savings from biosimilars will reach an estimated
$285 billion.
- Therapy area growth: The two leading global therapy
areas — oncology and immunology — are each forecast to grow 9-12
percent CAGR through 2025, lifted by significant increases in new
treatments and medicine use. Oncology is projected to add 100 new
treatments over five years, contributing to an increase in spending
of more than $100 billion to a total of more than $260 billion in
2025. Immunology growth is projected to slow from the 17.3 percent
CAGR over the past five years as biosimilars bring lower cost
treatments offsetting growth from volume and drug launches. In
addition, many new therapies are expected in neurology including
novel migraine therapies, potential treatments for rare
neurological diseases and the potential for therapies for
Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.
The full version of the report, including a detailed description
of the methodology, is available at www.IQVIAInstitute.org. The
study was produced independently as a public service, without
industry or government funding.
About the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science
The IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science contributes to the
advancement of human health globally through timely research,
insightful analysis and scientific expertise applied to granular
non-identified patient-level data.
Fulfilling an essential need within healthcare, the Institute
delivers objective, relevant insights and research that accelerate
understanding and innovation critical to sound decision making and
improved human outcomes. With access to IQVIA’s institutional
knowledge, advanced analytics, technology and unparalleled data,
the Institute works in tandem with a broad set of healthcare
stakeholders to drive a research agenda focused on Human Data
Science, including government agencies, academic institutions, the
life sciences industry and payers. More information about the IQVIA
Institute can be found at www.IQVIAInstitute.org.
About IQVIA
IQVIA (NYSE:IQV) is a leading global provider of advanced
analytics, technology solutions, and clinical research services to
the life sciences industry. IQVIA creates intelligent connections
across all aspects of healthcare through its analytics,
transformative technology, big data resources and extensive domain
expertise. IQVIA Connected Intelligence™ delivers powerful insights
with speed and agility — enabling customers to accelerate the
clinical development and commercialization of innovative medical
treatments that improve healthcare outcomes for patients. With
approximately 72,000 employees, IQVIA conducts operations in more
than 100 countries.
IQVIA is a global leader in protecting individual patient
privacy. The company uses a wide variety of privacy-enhancing
technologies and safeguards to protect individual privacy while
generating and analyzing information on a scale that helps
healthcare stakeholders identify disease patterns and correlate
with the precise treatment path and therapy needed for better
outcomes. IQVIA’s insights and execution capabilities help biotech,
medical device and pharmaceutical companies, medical researchers,
government agencies, payers and other healthcare stakeholders tap
into a deeper understanding of diseases, human behaviors and
scientific advances, in an effort to advance their path toward
cures. To learn more, visit www.iqvia.com.
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Nick Childs, IQVIA Investor Relations (Nchilds@us.imshealth.com)
+1.973.316.3828
Tor Constantino, IQVIA Media Relations
(tor.constantino@iqvia.com) +1.484.567.6732
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