DALLAS, Oct. 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index increased in July to a level of
92.8. July's reading is 3 points, or 3 percent, above the cyclical
low. The index averaged 124.4 points in 2019, 0.5 points above the
average for all of 2018. June's index reading was revised to
90.1.
Our state economic activity indexes all showed a rebound in
economic activity in July. The rebound is dampened somewhat because
of the smoothing process that we use to reduce the volatility
inherent in some regional economic data. The recovery for
California has also been less
robust than other states due to the late summer surge in COVID-19
cases which slowed the state's reopening plans in July and August.
In July, six of the eight components gained including nonfarm
employment, housing starts, industrial electricity demand, state
total trade, the Dow Jones Technology Index and hotel occupancy.
Unemployment insurance claims (inverted) remained negative. House
prices went unchanged. We still expect an ongoing economic recovery
for California in August, led by
steady job gains. Through August, the state has reabsorbed 885,700
jobs, or 34 percent of the net jobs lost in March and April. The
state's construction sector saw the strongest job recovery through
August, consistent with a rebound in residential construction. This
was followed by hiring in the healthcare sector. However, the
outlook for the California economy
this fall remains highly uncertain as risk factors mount.
California's high unemployment
rate, the end of enhanced unemployment benefits, diminishing
outlook for additional federal fiscal stimulus, the potential for
increased COVID-19 cases this fall and the destruction from ongoing
wildfires are all risks to economic activity at the end of
2020.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA) is a financial services
company headquartered in Dallas,
Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments:
The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management.
Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and
businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in
Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of
$84 billion at June 30, 2020.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank