DALLAS, April 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's California Economic Activity Index increased in January to a
level of 126.5. January's reading was 29 points, or 29 percent,
above the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 124.4
points in 2019, 0.5 points above the average for all of 2018.
December's reading was revised to 125.9.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index improved
again in January. The index components were positive for the month.
Nonfarm payrolls, housing starts, house prices, state total trade,
the Dow Jones Technology Index and hotel occupancy were positive in
January. Unemployment insurance claims (inverted) were negative for
the month while industrial electricity demand went unchanged.
However, this data does not reflect current conditions for the
California economy. We expect to
see a steep downturn in state-level economic data for March and
April, particularly on the two coasts which have seen some of the
strongest coronavirus outbreaks. California was one of the first in the nation
to implement social mitigation efforts to slow the transmission of
the coronavirus. Most sectors of the state economy will be impacted
in the coming months. Domestic travel is significantly reduced, and
foreign travel is currently being limited from China, Canada
and Mexico. Production for major
entertainment studios in southern California has halted due to shelter in place
orders. Restaurants, bars, hotels and other services industries are
also facing significant headwinds as people stay home. Preliminary
estimates of California initial
claims for unemployment insurance surged by 129,203 for the week
ending March 21, signaling that the
California unemployment rate will
rise in March and April.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank