DALLAS, Sept. 25, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in July to a
level of 118.0. July's reading was 20 points, or 21 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.4 points for
all of 2018, which was unchanged from the index average for 2017.
June's index reading was 117.7.
Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index ticked up in
July after increasing in June. This is the first back-to-back gain
for the Michigan Index since late 2017. The five positive
components for July were housing starts, house prices, light
vehicle production, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The
three declining sub-indexes were unemployment insurance claims
(inverted), industrial electricity demand and state sales tax
revenue. Nonfarm employment was essentially unchanged in July and
has been little changed since January of this year. The absence of
job growth in 2019 is not unique to Michigan. Several other Midwest and East Coast
states are also showing little-to-no job growth this year, despite
ongoing gains at the national level. Unemployment insurance claims
for Michigan have steadily
increased since late 2018, meaning that our unemployment insurance
claims index for Michigan has
steadily declined. Industrial electricity demand also remains below
its peak from December 2014.
Likewise, light vehicle production remains below its peak from
August 2016. Adding to the drag on
the Michigan economy is the UAW/GM
strike which is now in its second week. We are seeing more reports
of layoffs upstream in the supply chain from GM, so the economic
impact of the strike is spreading. An extended strike would weigh
on the economies of many states, including Michigan.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables,
as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks
in Michigan, is a subsidiary of
Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company
headquartered in Dallas, Texas,
and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business
Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In
addition to Michigan and
Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank