DALLAS, Aug. 27, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's California Economic Activity Index increased 0.1 percent in
June to a level of 124.5. June's reading is 27 points, or 27
percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged
124.0 points in 2018, 2.8 points above the average for all of 2017.
May's reading was revised to 124.4.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index extended
recent gains in June, now improving for four consecutive months.
The index subcomponents were split between gains and losses in
June. The positives included nonfarm employment, unemployment
insurance claims (inverted), house prices and the Dow Jones
Technology Index. The negative components for June were housing
starts, industrial electricity demand, total state trade and hotel
occupancy. Trends in the subcomponents remain mixed heading into
the second half of 2019. Our California nonfarm employment index has
improved every month since May 2011,
indicating that job growth continues to anchor the California economy. California house prices have also improved in
recent months after dipping through the first couple of months in
2019. Recent lower mortgages rates support opportunistic home
buying, supporting area house prices. However, this support may
only be limited given constraints on many potential first time home
buyers. California housing starts
dipped in June after three consecutive monthly increases. They were
down 25 percent through June from the same time period in 2018. The
value of state total trade, now down 11 percent from the
February 2018 peak, is another
cautionary sign for the California
economy. The recent escalation in trade tariffs between the U.S.
and China is expected to further
weigh on California trade through
the second half of 2019.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful..
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank