DALLAS, April 1, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's California Economic Activity Index declined by 0.3 percent
in January. January's reading is 26 points, or 26 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 124.0 points in
2018, 2.8 points above the average for all of 2017. December's
reading was revised to 123.8.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index declined by
0.3 percent in January. This followed a 0.4 percent decline
December. The California Index saw a strong downward revision in
the housing starts component for December. In January, only two of
the index components were positive including nonfarm employment and
hotel occupancy. The six negative index components for the month
were unemployment insurance (inverted), housing starts, house
prices, industrial electricity demand, total trade and the Dow
Jones Tech Index. Our California Index has now posted three
consecutive monthly declines. Leading the declines were tech stocks
prices which were pummeled from October to December. Tech stock
prices have since rebounded through March and will be a net
positive for our index in the coming months. California housing data has also been sluggish
in recent months. Total housing starts peaked at a 131,000 unit
annual rate in March 2018. That number dropped to just a
60,000 unit annual rate in December
2018. The slowdown in housing activity has led to a dramatic
downshift in home price growth across California's major regions. According to the
S&P Case-Shiller, home prices were up just 2.9 percent in
Los Angeles and 1.3 percent in
San Diego for the 12 months ending
in January. Year-over-year home price growth in San Francisco has abruptly declined from 10.6
percent in August to 1.7 percent in January.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful..
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank