timberwolf7
3 weeks ago
For those looking for something, check out TNXP:
-developed a drug to treat the PAIN from fibromyalgia
-ran 3 PH 3 trials, the 2nd one failed, but they say is was
only because it was run during the covid mess, and some dropped out
-there has been no drugs approved for fibro since around 2010 or so and
they are codeine based (think addiction)
-this one isn't codeine based
Where they are at:
-they submitted their New Drug Application in Oct
-there is a 60 day window in which the fda acts to accept or reject (do more)
the submission, its closing down (and maybe why the share price is moving as
momentum/bio even traders like to 'chase' binary decisions like this)
-my 1st target price is 50 cents if the NDA is accepted for consideration
-my target price if approved is $3
Concerns:
-never invested in a drug that treats PAIN before, so relying on the company to
be honest w/regard to the clinical trials
-will the 3 trials run satisfy the fda and the results be acceptable
-large share count, expect a reverse split down the road. But being in early and
the possibility of capturing some gains first? Helps mitigate the r/split effect.
Disclaimer: I do own shares at 17.5 cents because I trust the outcome of the clinical trials
and the only reason I am concerned with the 'robustness' of the trial design itself? I had another
one ATNM that I have followed for years, traded shares in, pass their PH 3 with flying colors.
Only to have the fda tell them they want them to run a new trial that (despite the fda accepting the trial
they ran in the first place) does more. Did not see it coming and the only good thing was, due to the
delays in another one I had shares in CRMD, I hadn't rotated a lot of that money over into ATNM. Saved
me from getting killed. So while I like TNXP, own a bunch of shares, I don't have as many as I would like
to.
just thought I would toss it out. As always, take your own look, do your own DD first before investing..
Good luck
timberwolf7
3 weeks ago
Good question with the only right answer that we usually
can't give a good read on is, will it ever recover to where it just was
and then go higher. And because of my own lessons learned over the
years?
If I don't have confidence in what I think might happen, I usually hesitate
to take a position. And if I do take one (which is rare), my approach is to
take what it gives if a run takes place.
Part of my concern with how the market has changed since 2000 with the expansion
into online trading, the use of computer run ALGOs, things are happening too fast.
And too many moves in share price are the result not of fundamentals driving the share price,
but momentum based on hype, PR controlling things. And far too often, when one of
those moments develop, since its a 'false' run, ya just don't know when it will end, or how
far it will collapse the share price when it does. Until it has happened and is over.
Know someone who had recently bought ITRM at around $1.39 after its drug got approved. I told
him I didn't like it because of how 'limited' its market potential is due to the fda's labeling of
who and when it could be used. But then the share price started running up, he was happy
as he should be, but I recommended he be ready to take 'what it gave'. It peaked out
a couple of days ago around $2.90 and has collapsed hard over the last 2 days. I haven't
talked to him since this happened, so not sure if he 'took' the gains or if he is stil holding onto
the shares.
But in all honesty, while I expected it to peak out, and the momentum run it had was a nice one,
also had no clue as to how far it would then fall off.. So could only recommend taking what it
gave, and then see what happens next. Cause the fundamentals/outlook wasn't good enough
to justify a higher share price 'sticking'. And if it took off even higher, so be it. Just be happy
with the gains you did capture.
To close, its only in hindsight that we know how our decisions 'worked out'. But I am more inclined now
to take gains if I can't conservatively justify a higher share price going forward. Or I think something is
ahead of where it should be with the future 'cloudy/uncertain'.
TradingCharts
4 weeks ago
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