TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts 16.9 Million New Vehicle Sales for 2020
January 14 2020 - 9:00AM
ALG, the benchmark for forecasting future vehicle values, and the
analytics subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects 16.9
million total new light vehicle sales for 2020, a decrease of 0.8%
from the prior year. In January of last year, ALG published its
2019 forecast of 17,049,661 million new vehicles and came in at
only a 0.01% difference or 1,936 units, making it the most accurate
publicly available forecast in the industry.
“While sales will dip below the 17 million mark for the first
time since 2014, when you look at the broader picture, 16.9 million
vehicle sales are healthy,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst
for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “2016 was a record sales year
fueled by pent up demand following the great recession, so the
decline we’re seeing indicates the exhaustion of that excess demand
and a market correction closer to organic supply and demand
levels,” added Lyman.
The auto industry remains resilient and showing positive
economic fundamentals such as record low unemployment rates and
steady consumer confidence.
While new vehicle sales are projected to soften slightly for
2020, the average transaction price for a new vehicle is expected
to rise by 2.5 percent year-over-year to $36,348.
“As consumers continue to shift from cars to trucks and SUVs,
and opt for valuable new safety technology features such as
adaptive cruise control and automatic emergency braking, we’re
seeing an increase in new-vehicle transaction prices which have
steadily risen year-over-year since 2014,” said Lyman.
ALG predicted manufacturer incentive per unit spending to
increase by 3.3 percent year-over-year at $3,863 per unit.
“In an environment with more supply than natural demand, we
expect automakers to increase incentives as a way to entice
consumers into new products. These attractive deals invite buyers
to upgrade their current vehicle at a faster rate,” added
Lyman.
Total Sales |
|
Forecast 2020 |
Actual 2019 |
YOY |
Industry |
16,914,206 |
17,047,725 |
-0.8% |
|
|
Average Transaction Price (Average Transaction
Price) |
|
ATP 2020 |
ATP 2019 |
YOY |
Industry |
$36,348 |
$35,475 |
2.5% |
|
|
Incentive per Unit Spending |
|
Incentives 2020 |
Incentive 2019 |
YOY |
Industry |
$3,863 |
$3,740 |
3.3% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s
analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace
that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other
people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with
TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior
purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its
nationwide network of more than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also
powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership
and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express,
AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly half of all new car buyers engage with
the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is
headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in
Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
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