TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Average Transaction Price to Increase 2.6% Year over Year for October 2019
November 01 2019 - 9:00AM
ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for
determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects average
transaction prices (ATP) to be up 2.6% from a year ago and 0.2%
from September 2019 to reach $35,239.
“With the economy remaining resilient, consumers have not been
afraid to opt into premium trims and luxury models leading to
higher average transaction prices,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief
Economist at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “With incentives up
year-over-year, consumers are getting some help to offset the
higher transaction prices.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Honda and Nissan are the only automakers expected to be down on
ATP year over year, 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively. Meanwhile BMW is
expected to be up 7.1%.
- ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will
reach $47 billion for the month of October 2019, up 1.5% or $717
million from a year ago and 5.5% from last month.
- The ratio of incentive spend to ATP is expected to be 10.7%, up
2% from a year ago but down 5.4% from September 2019.
- In ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI), which measures automaker
brand health, Hyundai and Kia stood out for mainstream brands and
BMW and Mercedes stood out for luxury brands due to a mix of strong
retail sales and lower incentive spend utilized to drive retail
volume.
“The broader shift in consumer preference from cars to SUVs is
leading to a notable spike in BMW’s average transaction price,
fueled by exciting new or redesigned SUV products in the X5 and
X7,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary
of TrueCar. “BMW’s strong Retail Health Index performance shows the
brand is holding steady with consumers and that they’ve been able
to drive volume at higher price points, all while lowering
incentives.”
Added Lyman, “We expect Honda’s drop in average transaction
price to be due to an increase in retail share for the Civic, which
overtook the Accord as Honda’s best-selling sedan over the last few
years and continues to capture share made available by competitors
in the segment overall.”
October 2019 forecast for the 12
largest manufacturers by volume: For additional
data visit the ALG Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Oct 2019 |
Oct 2018 |
Sept 2019 |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$55,617 |
$51,927 |
$54,121 |
7.1% |
2.8% |
Daimler |
$58,545 |
$58,050 |
$57,651 |
0.9% |
1.6% |
FCA |
$36,778 |
$35,270 |
$36,612 |
4.3% |
0.5% |
Ford |
$39,690 |
$38,231 |
$39,193 |
3.8% |
1.3% |
GM |
$38,828 |
$37,288 |
$38,643 |
4.1% |
0.5% |
Honda |
$28,348 |
$29,197 |
$28,468 |
-2.9% |
-0.4% |
Hyundai |
$24,547 |
$22,472 |
$24,687 |
9.2% |
-0.6% |
Kia |
$24,518 |
$22,693 |
$24,373 |
8.0% |
0.6% |
Nissan |
$27,235 |
$27,530 |
$27,149 |
-1.1% |
0.3% |
Subaru |
$29,998 |
$29,609 |
$29,519 |
1.3% |
1.6% |
Toyota |
$32,768 |
$32,583 |
$32,544 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
$41,993 |
$40,602 |
$42,318 |
3.4% |
-0.8% |
Industry |
$35,239 |
$34,333 |
$35,160 |
2.6% |
0.2% |
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
Manufacturer |
Oct 2019 |
Oct 2018 |
Sept 2019 |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
10.2% |
10.7% |
9.2% |
-4.4% |
10.5% |
Daimler |
9.9% |
10.0% |
10.6% |
-0.8% |
-6.8% |
FCA |
13.1% |
12.4% |
13.6% |
6.4% |
-3.5% |
Ford |
11.5% |
11.5% |
11.8% |
0.2% |
-2.4% |
GM |
12.1% |
11.3% |
13.3% |
6.3% |
-9.3% |
Honda |
7.6% |
6.7% |
8.1% |
13.6% |
-5.6% |
Hyundai |
10.4% |
11.9% |
10.8% |
-12.0% |
-3.3% |
Kia |
14.4% |
16.5% |
14.0% |
-13.0% |
2.3% |
Nissan |
15.4% |
15.7% |
17.5% |
-2.0% |
-11.9% |
Subaru |
4.1% |
3.9% |
4.8% |
5.2% |
-13.0% |
Toyota |
7.5% |
7.7% |
8.1% |
-2.1% |
-7.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
9.1% |
9.3% |
8.9% |
-1.7% |
2.5% |
Industry |
10.7% |
10.5% |
11.3% |
2.0% |
-5.4% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Mainstream |
Oct 2019 |
YOYChange |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-3.5% |
-0.1% |
Chevrolet |
0.9% |
0.4% |
Chrysler |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
Dodge |
2.5% |
0.3% |
Fiat |
4.0% |
0.6% |
Ford |
-0.7% |
0.2% |
GMC |
-1.6% |
1.2% |
Honda |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
Hyundai |
3.2% |
0.1% |
Jeep |
0.5% |
-0.2% |
Kia |
3.4% |
0.2% |
Mazda |
1.0% |
-0.2% |
MINI |
0.7% |
0.3% |
Mitsubishi |
1.5% |
0.3% |
Nissan |
-1.1% |
0.1% |
Ram |
-2.8% |
1.2% |
Subaru |
0.1% |
0.3% |
Toyota |
0.6% |
0.1% |
Volkswagen |
2.6% |
-0.8% |
Luxury |
Oct 2019 |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-3.1% |
-0.2% |
Alfa Romeo |
0.5% |
-0.6% |
Audi |
-2.8% |
-0.5% |
BMW |
1.0% |
0.6% |
Cadillac |
-1.1% |
1.1% |
Genesis |
-5.4% |
0.8% |
INFINITI |
-3.2% |
0.6% |
Jaguar |
0.1% |
0.5% |
Land Rover |
-2.3% |
1.0% |
Lexus |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
Lincoln |
-0.1% |
0.1% |
Maserati |
-0.9% |
0.1% |
Mercedes-Benz |
2.2% |
0.7% |
Porsche |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
Volvo |
-2.3% |
-0.4% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a
projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs
for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Nearly
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow
us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
TrueCar & ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
pr@truecar.com
shadee@truecar.com
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