Homebuyers are seeking out less expensive
locales like Tampa and San Antonio, partly because the surging cost
of housing and other goods is limiting their ability to buy homes
in many U.S. cities
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — A record 32.6% of Redfin.com users nationwide
looked to move from one metro to another in the second quarter, up
slightly from 32.3% in the first quarter and roughly 26% before the
pandemic, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage.
The housing market has slowed following a pandemic-driven buying
frenzy, with home sales falling and supply starting to rise due to
rising mortgage rates, high home prices, inflation and a faltering
economy. But the people who can still afford to buy continue to
relocate at unprecedented levels, largely because surging housing
costs are putting expensive metros further out of reach. That makes
relatively affordable places like Tampa and San Antonio more
attractive.
“The typical home in San Francisco or San Jose now costs more
than $1.5 million. Add in today’s 5%-plus mortgage rates and you
have a sky-high monthly payment,” said Redfin Deputy Chief
Economist Taylor Marr. “Those factors, along with more companies
giving employees the permanent flexibility to work remotely, are
driving a larger portion of buyers to consider homes in other parts
of the country. Someone who would have to stretch beyond their
budget in Los Angeles may be able to comfortably afford a home in
Phoenix or San Antonio.”
Florida is seeing more homebuyers move in than a year
ago
Miami was the most popular migration destination in the second
quarter, unchanged from the first quarter. Popularity is measured
by net inflow, or how many more Redfin.com users looked to move
into an area than leave.
Another Florida metro, Tampa, came in second, followed by
Phoenix, Sacramento and Las Vegas. Cape Coral, FL, San Diego, North
Port, FL, San Antonio, TX and Dallas round out the top 10. Warm,
Sun Belt metros are perennial favorites for relocators.
Migration into Florida continues to pick up, with net inflow
into Miami, Tampa, Cape Coral and North Port higher than it was a
year earlier. New York and Chicago are the most common origins of
homebuyers looking to move into those metros.
“Tampa is still attracting a lot of out-of-state homebuyers,
coming from places like New York, who can get more for their money
in Florida,” said Eric Auciello, a Redfin manager in Tampa. “The
spike in mortgage rates has priced some buyers out of the market,
but it has also helped ease competition and curb bidding wars
between locals and out of towners. A lot of buyers who kept getting
outbid at the peak of the market are now getting their offers
accepted, and in some cases they’re even able to use FHA loans,
make smaller down payments and keep the appraisal contingency.”
That marks a shift from the height of the pandemic buying
frenzy, when sellers were often more likely to accept offers that
used conventional loans and waived contingencies.
Movement into San Diego and San Antonio is also on the upswing,
with higher net inflow in the second quarter than a year earlier.
Los Angeles is a common origin for people relocating to both of
those places.
Meanwhile, net inflow into Phoenix, Sacramento, Las Vegas and
Dallas has started to slow down from last year. That’s partly
because home prices have risen so much in those areas, taking them
from relatively affordable to not-so-affordable. Prices in Phoenix,
for instance, rose 20% year over year to $485,000 in June, and in
Las Vegas they rose 23% to $450,000. Still, these places are
significantly more affordable than coastal hubs like San Francisco
and New York.
Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and
Their Top Origins
Rank
Metro*
Net Inflow, Q2 2022†
Net Inflow, Q2 2021
Portion of Searches from Users Outside
the Metro, Q2 2022
Portion of Searches from Users Outside
the Metro, Q2 2021
Top Origin
Top Out-of-State Origin
1
Miami, FL
12,614
9,830
33.3%
31.5%
New York, NY
New York, NY
2
Tampa, FL
9,841
7,939
49.3%
55.3%
Orlando, FL
New York, NY
3
Phoenix, AZ
9,730
11,464
36.3%
37.5%
Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles, CA
4
Sacramento, CA
9,640
9,742
42.5%
47.3%
San Francisco, CA
Seattle, WA
5
Las Vegas, NV
8,597
10,984
46.2%
50.0%
Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles, CA
6
Cape Coral, FL
7,015
6,464
67.1%
74.9%
Chicago, IL
Chicago, IL
7
San Diego, CA
6,804
3,100
31.9%
28.8%
Los Angeles, CA
Seattle, WA
8
North Port, FL
6,626
5,167
66.8%
75.8%
Chicago, IL
Chicago, IL
9
San Antonio, TX
5,335
4,356
41.8%
44.7%
Austin, TX
Los Angeles, CA
10
Dallas, TX
4,964
7,458
24.8%
28.4%
Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles, CA
*Combined statistical areas with at least
500 users in Q2 2022
†Among the two million users sampled for
this analysis only
Migration out of San Francisco is increasing, while migration
out of New York is declining
San Francisco had the highest net outflow of any major U.S.
metro in the second quarter, unchanged from the first quarter. Net
outflow is a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to
leave a metro area than move in.
Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Seattle round out
the top five; it’s typical that homebuyers look to move out of
expensive job centers.
As permanent remote work becomes the norm for many workers, even
more homebuyers are moving out of most of those expensive cities
than a year ago. Net outflow increased year over year in four of
the five top places people are leaving. One exception is New York,
where outflow is slowing.
Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and
Their Top Destinations
Rank
Metro*
Net Outflow, Q2 2022†
Net Outflow. Q2 2021
Portion of Local Users Searching
Elsewhere, Q2 2022
Portion of | Local Users Searching
Elsewhere, Q2 2021
Top Destination
Top Out-of-State Destination
1
San Francisco, CA
48,718
45,703
23.2%
23.9%
Sacramento, CA
Seattle, WA
2
Los Angeles, CA
40,632
33,712
19.4%
18.6%
San Diego, CA
Phoenix, AZ
3
New York, NY
35,165
48,731
28.4%
34.3%
Philadelphia, PA
Philadelphia, PA
4
Washington, DC
24,492
18,179
16.7%
15%
Salisbury, MD
Salisbury, MD
5
Seattle, WA
18,594
6,177
17.6%
15.4%
Phoenix, AZ
Phoenix, AZ
6
Boston, MA
12,493
5,023
18.1%
15.3%
Portland, ME
Portland, ME
7
Detroit, MI
7,334
3,192
34.2%
26.8%
Cleveland, OH
Cleveland, OH
8
Denver, CO
5,635
9,065
29.4%
30.4%
Chicago, IL
Chicago, IL
9
Chicago, IL
4,769
7,115
13.6%
12.8%
Cape Coral, FL
Cape Coral, FL
10
Minneapolis, MN
2,795
10
24.5%
20.9%
Chicago, IL
Chicago, IL
*Combined statistical areas with at least
500 users in Q2 2022
†Among the two million users sampled for
this analysis only
To view the full report, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/q2-2022-housing-migration-trends/
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance,
and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge
half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage
site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand
tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly.
Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin
or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top
dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find
apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've
saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more
than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000
people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220718005210/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Isabelle Novak, (414)
861-5861 press@redfin.com
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