San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco are among
the fastest-cooling housing markets in the U.S. as mortgage rates
remain above 5% and the stock market falters, pricing many would-be
buyers out of the market
(NASDAQ: RDFN) —Housing markets in northern California are
cooling faster than anywhere else in the U.S. amid high mortgage
rates and a faltering stock market, according to a new report from
Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate
brokerage.
Five of the 10 U.S. housing markets that have cooled fastest
this year are in northern California–San Jose, Oakland, San
Francisco, Sacramento and Stockton–and three of those five are in
the Bay Area. All 10 of the housing markets cooling fastest are in
the American West. The cooldown is largely because mortgage rates
nearly doubled in the first half of the year, reaching nearly 6% in
June. That caused the monthly mortgage payment for a typical
homebuyer to surge 45% year over year to $2,459 in June and priced
many buyers out of the market.
The cooldown comes after the housing market soared to new
heights during the pandemic, largely fueled by record-low mortgage
rates and remote work.
“The housing market has changed drastically in the last month
because higher rates make homes even more expensive than they used
to be. At the same time, fewer people can afford pricey homes
because of the volatile stock market,” said San Francisco Redfin
agent Joanna Rose. “In the early spring, every home was selling
over its asking price with multiple bids. Then the number of people
attending open houses dropped from 20 to two, and now some homes
are sitting on the market for over a month and selling for under
asking price. Supply is starting to pile up.”
Northern California’s housing market is cooling faster than
anywhere else in the country
San Jose is cooling at the fastest clip, with measures of
homebuyer demand and competition dropping off quicker than any
other major metro this year. The supply of homes for sale in San
Jose was up 10% year over year in May–but just three months earlier
in February, supply was down 43%, indicating that buyers are now
gobbling up fewer homes. And the share of homes that went off the
market in two weeks was down 5% year over year in May, a big swing
from the 22% year-over-year increase in February–that’s an
indicator that homes are selling slower.
After San Jose, Sacramento is cooling fastest, followed by
Oakland. Stockton, CA, located about 50 miles south of Sacramento,
comes in at number five, and San Francisco is number 10.
The Bay Area is cooling quickly due to high mortgage rates,
which hit pocketbooks harder in pricey areas, and the slumping
stock market, a factor that’s particularly impactful in tech hubs
where a lot of residents are compensated with equity. Sky-high home
prices are another factor pricing many would-be buyers out of the
market. San Jose, Oakland and San Francisco are the most expensive
metros in the U.S., with the typical home selling for over $1
million and many selling for well over $1.5 million.
In dollar terms, mortgage rates reaching nearly 6% in the spring
had a particularly big impact in pricey areas like Northern
California. The typical monthly mortgage payment on a
million-dollar home is roughly $5,750 with a 6% interest rate,
$1,400 higher than it would be with a 3% interest rate (assuming a
20% down payment). The increase is half as big with a home priced
close to the national median: The typical monthly payment on a
$450,000 home is about $2,600 with a 6% rate, about $700 higher
than with a 3% rate.
“But there is good news for some buyers. People who can afford
to buy right now could get something for $100,000 or $200,000 less
than a few months ago, largely because homes are often no longer
selling above asking price,” Rose continued. “They’ll have a higher
monthly payment for now due to the rise in mortgage rates but can
refinance later if rates come down.”
Even if the Bay Area slowdown leads to declining home prices,
it’s likely to remain among the most expensive parts of the
country, partly because it’s significantly more expensive than
almost anywhere else in the U.S. and partly because other metros
are cooling, too. Plus, higher mortgage rates means buyers are
still paying top dollar.
Sacramento, located about 90 miles away from San Francisco, is
also one of the fastest-cooling markets. That marks a reversal from
the height of the pandemic, when it attracted scores of remote
workers moving in from the Bay Area and other expensive parts of
the country. But partly because of its popularity, home prices
soared 44% throughout the pandemic, reaching a median of $610,000
in May 2022 and pricing many buyers out of the market.
Pandemic boomtowns like Boise and Austin are also cooling
quickly
Seattle (#4), Boise, ID (#6), Denver (#7), San Diego (#8) and
Tacoma, WA (#9) round out the list of the 10 housing markets that
have cooled fastest this year. Cape Coral, FL, Las Vegas, Austin,
Phoenix and North Port, FL–all popular migration destinations
during the pandemic–are among the top 20 markets cooling
fastest.
The influx of out-of-towners, along with a limited supply of
homes for sale, caused home prices in those places to rise rapidly,
sending them from affordable to not-so-affordable. Boise home
prices increased 53% from May 2020 to May 2022, reaching a median
of $550,000, and Tacoma prices increased 47% to $575,000. Higher
home prices, the pandemic tapering off and some workers returning
to the office are causing their popularity to wane.
Affordable Northeast and Midwest metros are cooling
slowest
Albany, NY has cooled slower than any other metro this year,
with measures of homebuyer demand and competition just slightly
weaker in May than in February. The supply of homes for sale in
Albany was down 19% year over year in May, compared with a 23% dip
in February. And the share of homes that went off the market in two
weeks was up about 2% year over year in May, compared with a 3%
year-over-year uptick in February.
It’s followed by El Paso, TX, Bridgeport, CT, Lake County, IL
and Rochester, NY. New Brunswick, NJ, Cincinnati, OH, Akron, OH,
New Haven, CT and Virginia Beach, VA round out the top 10 markets
that are cooling slowest. No market is heating up.
The 10 metros cooling the slowest are almost all located in the
Northeast or the Midwest and they’re all relatively affordable.
Eight of them have a median sale price below the national level of
$431,000. The two exceptions–Bridgeport and New Brunswick–both have
median sale prices below $575,000.
To view the full report, including tables and methodology,
please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-markets-cooling-fastest-bay-area-2022
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance,
and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge
half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage
site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand
tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly.
Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin
or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top
dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find
apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've
saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more
than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000
people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220708005076/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite,
206-588-6863 press@redfin.com
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