EU flash estimate euro area inflation; Germany foreign trade
price indexes, retail trade, unemployment; France PPI, provisional
CPI, consumer spending; Italy provisional CPI, cities CPI,
industrial turnover; UK balance of payments, business investment
revised results, GDP 2nd quarterly estimate, money and credit;
trading update from Carnival
Shares could edge up in Europe on Friday, as the recent rally in
bond yields paused. In Asia, stock benchmarks were mixed; Treasury
yields mostly rose; the dollar slipped; while oil advanced and gold
was steady .
European stocks could inch higher on Friday after the rise in
Treasury yields paused overnight.
However, worries about higher oil prices and high bond yields
haven't gone away, analysts said.
Treasury yields remained at relatively high levels, despite
overnight declines, as the increasing risk of a U.S. government
shutdown offset strong economic indicators.
More inflation data out of the U.S. and eurozone are expected on
Friday, when the Fed's preferred gauge of consumer prices, the PCE
Price Index, will offer more insight into whether price pressures
in the U.S. are intensifying once again.
The dollar faltered in Asia, which could be a snapback from the
past few days' rally, or also a reflection of concerns about the
possibility of a U.S. government shutdown.
Either way, the greenback still has some short-term tailwinds,
"Not sure this run of strength is over." In 12 months or more,
however, "we see lots of reasons why the dollar should cool off,"
Treasury yields were mostly higher, following their overnight
A slowing U.S. economy will keep the Fed from raising rates
again and force it to cut sooner than expected, Capital Economics
"We think the 'higher-for-longer' narrative that has taken hold
in the market won't last through 2024," it said.
Markets are resisting to price in another hike, despite hawkish
Fedspeak, and are pricing cuts to start by mid-2024 and run a
little faster than the FOMC's projections.
Capital Economics think cuts will start sooner and run faster
than what is baked in Fed Funds futures.
That would cause a decline in long-term interest rates and a
rally in risky assets, Capital Economics said.
Oil prices recovered from earlier losses caused by possible
Oil was ripe for a pullback, said Oanda. After oil reached just
a few dollars short of the $100/bbl level, traders appeared to be
locking in profits given turbulence in the bond market, it
"Heading into winter, worries about supply tightness may
continue pushing prices north, but whether this will evolve into a
long-lasting uptrend is questionable," said XM.
"The challenges facing China and Europe, the two largest oil
consumers in the world behind the U.S., could further dent demand,
something that may start being reflected in prices at some point in
the future," it said.
Gold was steady in Asia, as metal prices remain under pressure
amid macroeconomic headwinds.
Given the market's positioning, technical and energy-price
pressures, it wouldn't be surprising for gold to fall into the low
$1,800s/oz area if inflation quickens and economic data remains
firm, said TD Securities.
The U.S. core PCE deflator-the Fed's favorite inflation
indicator-due later today will likely be a focus, as it could be a
catalyst for more downside if it is hotter than expected, it
Macquarie said it doesn't expect metal demand to recover until
the second half next year, with mild recessions in the U.S. and
Europe keeping prices capped. That said, it is more bullish on
precious metals like gold, expecting demand to rise when interest
rates start to fall.
Copper rose amid weakness in the dollar, which typically has an
inverse correlation with the red metal.
The industrial-metal sector is poised to benefit from
stabilizing growth in China in the fourth quarter, ANZ said.
Even though disappointing economic activity has capped the
upside for industrial-metal prices, demand from the new-energy
sector is a "sweet spot," it said.
Also, the renewed focus on electric vehicles and power-grid
extensions should revive demand for downstream metals, it
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Kevin McCarthy Faces Late-Night Test Ahead of Government
WASHINGTON-House Republicans moved to pass a series of annual
spending bills late Thursday night, trying to show that the often
fractured conference can stay united on legislation headed into any
last-gasp negotiations with Democrats to avert a government
shutdown this weekend.
In the first of the votes, the House passed the annual State
Department and foreign aid appropriations bill in a 216-212
Japan Finance Minister Pledges Appropriate Action Against
Excessive Yen Moves
TOKYO-Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki renewed his
pledge to take action against sharp falls in the yen as it weakened
to its lowest level in almost a year.
"There is no change to our stance that we will take appropriate
action against excessive moves without ruling out any options,"
Suzuki said at a news conference on Friday. "We have a strong sense
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee Warns of Risk of Causing
A top Federal Reserve official said low unemployment could exist
with lower inflation and central bank officials should be wary of
making mistakes that trigger a recession.
"Believing too strongly in the inevitability of a large
trade-off between inflation and unemployment comes with the serious
risk of a near-term policy error," Chicago Fed President Austan
Goolsbee said Thursday in a speech at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics in Washington.
UBS Poised to Settle Mozambique's 'Tuna Bonds' Lawsuit Against
UBS Group is close to settling a claim brought by Mozambique
against Credit Suisse, people familiar with the matter said, a move
that would resolve one of the many legal headaches it inherited
through the rushed rescue of its Swiss banking rival earlier this
Striking a deal with the southern African nation would help UBS
disentangle itself from the so-called tuna-bonds scandal, a
decadelong mess mixing high finance, corruption and risky
Nvidia's French Offices Raided in Cloud-Computing Antitrust
France's competition authority raided Nvidia's local offices
this week on suspicion the company engaged in anticompetitive
practices, the first significant regulatory scrutiny the company
has faced since its rise to be the paramount supplier of artificial
The French competition authority, which disclosed the dawn raid
on Wednesday, didn't say what practices it was investigating or
which company it had targeted, beyond saying it was in the
"graphics cards sector." But people familiar with the raid said the
operation had targeted Nvidia, which is the world's largest maker
of chips used both for artificial intelligence and for computer
Write to firstname.lastname@example.org
Expected Major Events for Friday
04:30/NED: Aug PPI
04:30/NED: Aug Retail turnover
04:30/NED: Sep Flash Estimate CPI
06:00/SWE: Aug Retail sales
06:00/UK: 2Q Balance of Payments
06:00/UK: 2Q Business investment revised results
06:00/DEN: 2Q Revised GDP
06:00/DEN: Aug Unemployment
06:00/UK: 2Q UK quarterly national accounts
06:00/GER: Aug Foreign trade price indices
06:00/GER: Aug Retail Trade
06:30/HUN: Aug Employment & unemployment
06:45/FRA: Aug PPI
06:45/FRA: Aug Household consumption expenditure in manufactured
06:45/FRA: Sep Provisional CPI
07:00/CZE: 2Q LFSS Employment & Unemployment
07:00/SWI: Sep KOF economic barometer
07:00/TUR: Aug Foreign Trade
07:30/EU: Sep EuroCOIN indicator of euro area economic
07:55/GER: Sep Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)
08:00/ITA: Aug Foreign Trade non-EU
08:00/BUL: Aug PPI
08:30/UK: Aug Money and Credit - Lending to Individuals, Lending
to Businesses, Broad Money and Credit
08:30/UK: Aug Monetary & Financial Statistics
08:30/UK: Aug Bank of England effective interest rates
09:00/CRO: Aug Industrial Production Volume Index
09:00/CYP: Aug PPI
09:00/GRE: Aug PPI
09:00/GRE: Jul Turnover Index in Retail Trade
09:00/ITA: Sep Provisional CPI
09:00/ITA: Sep Cities CPI
09:00/BEL: 2Q Balance of Payments
09:00/LUX: Aug PPI
09:00/CRO: Aug Retail trade
09:00/EU: Sep Flash Estimate euro area inflation
10:00/ITA: Jul Industrial turnover
10:00/POR: Aug Retail trade
12:00/POL: 2Q Quarterly Balance of Payments
15:59/UKR: Aug Industrial Production
16:59/SPN: Aug Budget deficit
All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.
Write to us at email@example.com
We offer an enhanced version of this briefing that is optimized
for viewing on mobile devices and sent directly to your email
inbox. If you would like to sign up, please go to
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal
newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 29, 2023 00:16 ET (04:16 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
From Nov 2023 to Dec 2023
From Dec 2022 to Dec 2023