Bitcoin Officially In Overheated MVRV Zone, Rally End Near?
November 22 2024 - 8:30AM
NEWSBTC
On-chain data shows Bitcoin has recently surpassed a level of the
Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that has historically
signaled overheated conditions. Bitcoin Has Surpassed Highest MVRV
Deviation Pricing Band In its latest weekly report, the on-chain
analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about how Bitcoin is looking
right now from the perspective of a pricing model based on the MVRV
Ratio. The MVRV Ratio is a popular BTC indicator that keeps track
of the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its realized
cap. The latter here is an on-chain capitalization model that, in
short, tells us about the amount of capital that the investors as a
whole have used to purchase their tokens. Related Reading: Shiba
Inu Could See A 53% Surge If This Resistance Breaks, Analyst
Explains Since the MVRV Ratio compares this initial investment
against the value that the investors are currently holding (that
is, the market cap), it essentially provides information about the
profitability of the addresses on the BTC network. Now, the pricing
model that Glassnode has created doesn’t directly make use of the
MVRV Ratio itself, but rather some standard deviations (SDs) from
its mean. Below is the chart for this model shared by the analytics
firm in the report. In this model, pricing levels correspond to BTC
prices at which the MVRV Ratio would attain a value equal to a
certain SD above or below its mean. At the +0.5 SD level, for
instance, the MVRV Ratio is 0.5 SD greater than its mean value.
From the graph, it’s apparent that the Bitcoin price has broken
past the highest of the pricing bands part of this model with its
latest run. The level in question is the +1.0 SD, equivalent to
$90,200 at the moment. Historically, BTC has tended to form tops
when its price has exceeded this pricing band. The reason behind
this is the fact that at such high levels of the MVRV Ratio, the
investors carry a significant amount of profits, so a mass selloff
with the motive of profit-taking can become a real possibility.
Related Reading: XRP Binance Inflows Spike: What It Means For Price
The last time that the cryptocurrency broke past this barrier was
in the first quarter of this year. As is visible in the chart, it
didn’t take the price long to top out back then. In full-blown bull
markets in the past, however, Bitcoin has generally sustained
inside this overheated territory for notable periods of time before
finding a peak. An example of this trend is also highlighted in the
chart; the first half 2021 bull run saw the coin stay in the zone
for a few months thanks to high capital inflows. As such, it’s not
necessary that BTC would immediately reach a cyclical top now that
it has become overheated on this model. BTC Price Bitcoin had risen
beyond the $98,000 level earlier in the past day, but it seems the
coin has suffered a minor setback as it’s now back at $97,500.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from
TradingView.com
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