The Best Investing Style ETF This Fiscal? - ETF News And Commentary
December 31 2012 - 4:43AM
Zacks
A debate between different styles of investing is not new to the
financial world. There are various ‘experts’ from different schools
of thought with strong arguments poised in favor of their beliefs
as far as investment styles are concerned. Whether undervalued
stocks have the potential to deliver high returns (value
style) or overvalued stocks make for a good momentum play
(growth style) or a combination of both flavors in
a portfolio is a winner (blend style) has been and
will be a never ending discussion.
Nevertheless, while there are pros and cons associated with each
investing style, it is also true that the same strategy or style
doesn’t work for different market conditions. Having said this, a
look at the best performing investment style this
fiscal year is prudent especially as we near the conclusion of yet
another economically action packed year. (see 3 Emerging Market
ETFs Protected from Global Events)
The methodology adopted was selecting nine ETFs, each ETF
representing a particular investment style and a market
capitalization bucket (i.e. large, mid or small). To compute the
results we have assumed that an investor allocated capital
uniformly across the entire spectrum of market capitalization,
thereby focusing solely on the investment style and eliminating any
market capitalization bias. (read Mid Cap ETF Investing 101)
The portfolio returns and risk is computed assuming that the
investor allocates equally across the three types of ETF for any
particular style. In other words, the weight allocated to each ETF
across a particular style is 33.33%.
The following table summarizes the results obtained for each
style box.
Table: 1
Capitalization
|
Large Cap
|
Mid Cap
|
Small Cap
|
Overall Portfolio
|
Rank
|
Growth
|
IVW
|
IWP
|
VBK
|
|
|
Risk
|
12.13%
|
14.94%
|
16.92%
|
14.21%
|
|
Return
|
10.85%
|
11.55%
|
13.18%
|
11.86%
|
|
Return per unit risk
|
|
|
|
0.83
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Value
|
IVE
|
IWS
|
VBR
|
|
|
Risk
|
13.45%
|
13.72%
|
15.24%
|
13.73%
|
|
Return
|
12.23%
|
13.42%
|
13.79%
|
13.15%
|
|
Return per unit Risk
|
|
|
|
0.96
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blend
|
SPY
|
IJH
|
IWM
|
|
|
Risk
|
12.56%
|
15.25%
|
16.47%
|
14.25%
|
|
Return
|
11.45%
|
13.52%
|
9.86%
|
11.69%
|
|
Return per unit Risk
|
|
|
|
0.74
|
3
|
Note: Returns are computed on year-till-date
basis.
Not surprisingly, the volatility tends to increase towards the
small cap ETFs. Of course, this is quite expected as mid and small
caps are more volatile than their large cap counterparts. This is
especially true considering the volatility that we have witnessed
over the past twelve months, first over the Eurozone issues and now
over the impending fiscal cliff. However, the small caps have fared
better in terms of absolute returns. (see more in the Zacks
ETF Center)
Instead of concentrating on absolute performance, our exercise
focuses on risk-adjusted performance. In other words, it takes into
consideration the reward reaped by an investor for bearing up with
the volatility of the investing style chosen by him/her.
The table summarizes the trailing performance of each style on
the basis of their risk-adjusted returns. In order to compute this,
the portfolio returns and risk were calculated, and the return was
divided by the risk obtained. Based on this score the various
styles were ranked.
As we can see, the value ETF portfolio has performed better,
both in terms of absolute portfolio returns as well as risk
adjusted returns, than its growth and blend counterparts, having a
return per unit of risk score of 0.96. Compared to this, the growth
portfolio has a score of 0.83 while the blend portfolio got a score
of 0.74.
Also, the value ETF portfolio has exhibited less volatility than
the growth and blend portfolios as indicated by lower portfolio
volatility (read SPDR Files for Low Volatility ETFs).
Growth investing is basically a momentum play; this makes it a
great strategy in a trending market (i.e. a market characterized by
a prolonged up or downtrend). This is because stocks in the growth
ETF portfolio harness their momentum in earnings to create a
positive bias in the market which results in rocketing share
prices. However, this only works when the broader market sentiments
have a predetermined direction.
However, in the last 12 months the markets have seen movement in
a quarterly up-down-up-down trend making it virtually impossible to
predict a trend, at least this was the case for a good period of
time this fiscal (read What Do Quarterly Trends Reveal about ETFs
in Q4?). However, this doesn’t mean that growth stocks underperform
during such markets.
However it does mean that they exhibit a higher degree of
volatility especially compared to value stocks. This is the primary
reason why growth stocks have a lower risk adjusted return
performance, although in terms of absolute returns there seems to
be hardly any difference between the three styles.
On the other hand, value stocks are not very susceptible to the
trending markets unlike their growth counterparts. They give the
market ample time to find and realize the potential of these
companies with hidden value. This makes them less susceptible to
the broader market conditions. This also results in a lower
realized volatility as indicated by the figures in the table.
Therefore in a volatile market these make for great picks for
highest risk adjusted returns. (see ETFs in a QE3 World)
Nevertheless, each investing style has its own advantages and
disadvantages and it entirely depends on the individual investor’s
risk-return profile as to which style is best suited for him/her.
However, with 2013 poised to be yet another action packed year
ahead of the fiscal cliff one might think that in order to seek
investments with higher risk-adjusted returns, value ETFs might
well be the place to be.
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ISHARS-SP500 VL (IVE): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-SP500 GR (IVW): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-RS M GR (IWP): ETF Research Reports
ISHARS-RS M VL (IWS): ETF Research Reports
VIPERS-SC GRWTH (VBK): ETF Research Reports
VIPERS-SC VALUE (VBR): ETF Research Reports
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